NFL Picks

Last week wasn’t anything spectacular, but I was on the plus side. I’ll do a complete re-cap to this point later in the week. For now, the confidence level is rising and there are more then enough playable games this week. I’m looking for the big break through this week. Here goes:

MIAMI 4 Oakland: The odds maker have this line backward. Oakland covers with a win. BEST BET.

Houston 3 ATLANTA: Giving Atlanta 3 is like predicting a win. Houston should cover big. Another BEST BET.

Baltimore 4½ CLEVELAND: I’d make the Ravens a slightly bigger favorite, but not good enough for a bet.

Chicago 3 DETROIT: I actual find this line to be reversed, but I’m reluctant to back the Lions under any circumstances. Pass.

Green Bay 2 MINNESOTA:I make this Green Bay by five. Not good enough for a wager, though.

DALLAS 12½ ST Louis: That’s a big line, but it is realistic. The bettors will be allover the Cowboys otherwise. I’ll make this game a reluctant BEST BET.

N.Y Jets 4 BUFFALO: This is one of the few games the Bills will have a chance to win. I doubt it. And, if they lose it’ll be by more then four. PASS.

CAROLINA 3 Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay is looking pretty good this year. So is Carolina. I think the Bucs win outright. BEST BET.

Seattle 2 SAN FRANCISCO: The Seahawks have the potential to still be a great team this year. I make ‘em a 10-point favorite and a BEST BET.

Pittsburgh 6 ARIZONA: Probably the best team in the NFL is only giving six? Makes no sense to me and I almost made them a best bet, but I feel uneasy about this line. On the other hand, this could be the best of the best. It’s a late game, so if I’m on a roll, take the Steelers, otherwise, pass.

SAN DIEGO 12 Kansas City: There’s something wrong with the Chargers. This game works out even for me. Take the Chiefs for a BEST BET!

INDIANAPOLIS 9½ Denver: Can’t argue with success. Colts are on another roll and should cover.

Philadelphia 3 N.Y GIANTS: Hard to say which team’s the bigger disappointment. The Eagles may have gotten themselves together enough to cover this line big time. BEST BET.

Monday Night

New England 7½ CINCINNATI: A surprisingly low line. The highest scoring team in the league against a team that ran up a freaky score against the Browns. The Patriots crush them. BEST BET.

Eight BEST BETS, with a maybe on the Steelers We’ll see……

(Here are the abbreviated picks. Last week was a little unimpressive, but not too bad. I’ll do a review and comments later)
Indianapolis 6 HOUSTON: Last year I would have been allover the Colts. Not today. Line looks about right so I’ll pass.
San Diego 5 GREEN BAY: I wrote off Green Bay in week one. Boy, was I wrong. Take the points if you have to play this one.
KANSAS CITY 3 Minnesota: Compared to the Chiefs, the Vikings are a scoring machine. Take Minnesota.
PHILADELPHIA 6 Detroit: I thought the Eagles would have been much better this year, but they shouldn’t be giving points to anybody. Detroit’s a BEST BET.
NEW ENGLAND 16½ Buffalo: The only line that makes any sense to me. But, you don’t even give the Bills that many points. Buffalo for a BEST BET (and remember my caveat about the Bills).
N.Y JETS 3 Miami: Who’s more hopeless? I’m leaning toward the Jets winning this, but I suggest a pass.
PITTSBURGH 9 San Francisco: the Steelers’ are rolling along and the 49’ers, well I just think they’re overrated. Take the Steelers as a BEST BET.
BALTIMORE 7½ Arizona: This game should be a pick, take the points since that makes Arizona a BEST BET.
TAMPA BAY 3½ ST Louis: I’m not sure what to make of either of these two teams, but my rating system makes Tampa a BEST BET.
DENVER 3 Jacksonville: This line looks about right. Pass.
SEATTLE 3 Cincinnati: This line is backward. Take the Bengals. BEST BET. OAKLAND 3 Cleveland: I’ve got no respect for the Raiders, but then again Cleveland isn’t my Super Bowl pick. PASS.
Carolina 4 ATLANTA: Looks about right. Pass.
WASHINGTON 3½ NY Giants: Washington’s better then I anticipated, and the Giants aren’t all that impressive. I’m leaning toward the Redskins, but I’ll pass.
CHICAGO 3 Dallas: I’m liking Dallas here but the line looks all-wrong. This is one of those games I’d bet if I were ahead. By that I mean I’d take the Bears and give the points.

MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ORLEANS 4½ Tennessee: Wrong team is giving the points here. Titans a BEST BET.

There’s seven BEST BETS with the Buffalo game a caution, but I can’t resist it. Besides, I feel really good about the other games.

Two things that I should have mentioned last time. I have a prejudice against the Colts and Bills. Not that it would have changed my picks, but I tend to downgrade both teams. I think the Colts are overrated (I know, they are World Champs, maybe it’s just because I don’t like Payton Manning) and Buffalo is just one of those teams that can’t close the deal. Last week is a good example. That being said, take my picks on those teams with that in mind. And with that in mind here’s last week’s results.
Indy stomped New Orleans. At the half I looked pretty good, but the Saints collapsed and they got crushed. Huston giving points should have warned me that the Chiefs were worse then I expected. I went the wrong way there. The Bills almost pulled the upset, but, true to their form they blew the game, but did cover. A best bet down the drain. The Steelers made me even when they crushed Cleveland. Atlanta is going to be lucky to win a game this year and my third best (but slightly hesitant) bet came through making me two and one. New England handled the Jets nicely and me 3-1 on Best Bets. A 75% win on week one is a pretty good start. Now for week two:

Buffalo is getting 9 ½ from Pittsburgh. I can’t see the Bills doing better then a field goal or two and figure the Steelers to cover this.

Cleveland is getting 6 ½ from the Bengals. Less then a touchdown. I’ll pass.

Indianapolis –6 ½ from the Titans. I think the Saints are a better team then the Titans, so I have to go with the Colts on this one.

Huston is –6 ½ against the Panthers. That’s more like it. Pass here, too.

San Francisco is getting three from St.Louis. Give the points; the 49’ers are very overrated. BEST BET.

Green Bay only gets a point from the Giants. Too many questions here. Pass.

Atlanta gets ten points from Jacksonville. Should be a lot more, but they don’t dare. Jags cover, BEST BET TWO.

New Orleans gives 3 ½ to Tampa. The Saints bounce back big. BEST BET THREE.

Minnesota gets three from Detroit. Who know? Who cares? Pass.

Dallas only giving up three and a half to Miami? That’s about half of what I expected. Despite Dallas’ new coach, they should be bigger. This is one of those suspicious lines that keep me from making the Cowboys a best bet. Pass.

Seattle –3 against Arizona. Nobody’s too sure about Arizona, but I am. Take the Seahawks as my FOURTH BEST BET.

The Jets getting ten from the Ravens? Last week they only got three from New England. Take the Jets.

Oakland gets ten from Denver. Maybe because the Broncos only squeaked by the Bills. I like the broncos, and, dare I say it? My FIFTH BEST BET!

The Chiefs get 11 ½ from the Bears. After getting slapped by Huston it’s no wonder. I think the Chiefs can stay close, but this is too iffy.

The Chargers get 3 ½ from New England. I thought they were the better team last year. Think I’ll pass and see how good the Pats are when they can’t steal signals.

Monday night is Washington +6 ½ from the Eagles. I like the Eagles and if I’m ahead here, they’re a BEST BET. Otherwise, I’ll need time to regroup and just pass.

Five, maybe six Best Bets. Anything less then 4 and two is a big disappointment.

The first week of the NFL is easy pickings, especially this week. I just may sweep the board on opening day and here’s why (Note: These picks were compelled with the Aid of a good friend of mine, Jack Daniels):

New Orleans is getting six from Indianapolis. It should be the other way. The Colts can’t stop a good ground game to save their lives and the Saints know that. Take the points. Saints win this outright.

Kansas City plus three from Huston? Holy shit, if the Chiefs put me in as quarterback they’d still win. Take the Chiefs.

Buffalo is only getting three from the Broncos. The Bills will be lucky if they scratch out six wins this year. It’s a gift. Merry Christmas, Denver’s a BEST BET!

The Steelers are minus four against Cleveland. That’s the Cleveland Browns, right? Take the points and beat all you can. Another BEST BET!

Tennessee is getting 6 ½ from Jacksonville. A little too much. Pass this one.

Carolina gets the point from St Louis. The only honest line of the day. The Rams should blow them out, but this one is too sneaky. I’d advise a pass.

Philadelphia is giving Green bay three. Brett’s played one season too many already and the Eagles may get to the Super bowl. Take the Eagles.

Atlanta is giving up three to the Vikings. Both teams sucked last year, but Michael “bow-wow” Vick’s absence makes the Falcons one of the worst bets of the year. The Vikes win this. Almost good enough to be a Best Bet.

Miami and Washington is the biggest “who cares” game on opening day. Both teams are so screwed up I wouldn’t take a tip from Jesus on this one. Ignore it.

New England is giving six to the Jets. That’s because the insane New York fans will bet their home team no matter what. Thank them, give the points and collect on another BEST BET.

Tampa Bay is getting six from Seattle. The Seahawks should kill them, but their coach was so screwed up last year I don’t know what to make of this game. Seattle should crush them, but with that idiot Holgrem calling the plays, leave this one alone.

Chicago is getting 6 1/2 from San Diego sounds about right. Pass.

Detroit is giving Oakland 1 ½. Who knows? That sounds about right. They both stink, but, if I had to bet this one I’d take the Lions.

The Giants are getting 5 ½ from Dallas. That’s a big signal that the Cowboys will win this one and cover.

Baltimore is getting 2 ½ from the Bengals. Tough call here. The Ravens can win, but the Bengals have a good chance. Don’t even try this one.

Arizona and San Francisco. This is another tough line. The 49’ers are giving three. They ain’t that good. On the other hand, Arizonian isn’t either. Pass.

Three best bets and a pretty decent one. They’re all solid (though Minnesota is a bit iffy) you should get at least three out of four. Pretty decent for opening day.