NFL Picks

Sometimes it's scary how accurate I can be. Okay, sure, the Jets were actually winning at half-time but the finish was exactly what I had predicted and I was a "perfect" 1-0. And, actually I was a perfect 2-0 since the Vikings-Saints game played out exactly the way I anticipated. So, it's not too early to present the winner of the upcoming Super Bowl. I'll by pass the drama: it'll easily be the Colts.

The Saints certainly didn't deserve the win and thanks to the uncharacteristically horrible decision by Brett "Who Really Should Know Better" Favre in the final seconds of regulation play they squeaked out a victory. The fact is, after barely winning despite the very sloppy play of the Vikings (five turn-overs!?) New Orleans barely won (and that reviewed catch in OT clearly wasn't a catch). The only reason to put a dollar on them is because you believe in fate, destiny, karma, or whatever. It's not even remotely possible that the line will be 10 points and I'm doubting it'll even be seven. So, case closed. The Colts will cover whatever meager spread the 'professionals" will create. Keep in mind their only concern is balancing the books and this is the most popular betting event of the year (or maybe that's the Kentucky Derby). The line merely represents the sentiments of the betting public and we all know how stupid they are. This won't be all that close. Now a Colts-Viking Super Bowl would have been a great one.This will probably be over by the time the "Who" take the stage at halftime.

By the way, my numbers slightly favor the Saints. I make them two point favorites but as I stated earlier, the numbers aren't as accurate when the really good teams play each other during the playoffs. It's takes a bit more insight and analysis to deal with the really good teams and the prevailing circumstances. This is for all the marbles and obviously the Colts are vastly superior to the Saints in all aspects of the game. The Colts are the bet.

Labels: NFL Picks, Super Bowl betting

The lines are official and shouldn't be much of a surprise. They are adjusted from reality to reflect the public's point-of-view.

My numbers are calculated based on statistics but they do appear shaky at times since they're based on regular season play and not exclusively on quality opponents. So for the current playoff games I've ranked both games as even. That would more-or-less mandate playing the "dog". Simple enough but I'm not taking that route. If you want to play it conservatively go for it. I see things a little differently.

Indianapolis 7 1/2 New York: I despise the Colts giving away their last two games of the regular season as much as anyone. Those guys are paid millions of dollars to entertain us and then they decide to flaunt their wealth, laugh at the very people paying them, and expect accolades when they do what they're supposed to. I'd love to see the Colts whipped like mules but it ain't gonna happen. Fact is, they went through the entire season undefeated and won every game they wanted to. Once they safely put away the Jets the last time they played them they gave themselves a break. Their finale was against the Bills and not even a diehard Bills fan would have expected a victory if the real Colts were on the field. Meanwhile, the Jets backed their way in to the playoffs and are living the dream. It's about to turn into a nightmare. Rate New York's marvelous defense any way you want, they haven't faced much of Payton Manning and they are about to be introduced to a guy who has something to prove. They managed to beat the self-destructive Chargers which can only be explained by "karma" or something. They can't depend on flubbed field goals here since the Colts will be finding the end zone every chance they get. It comes down to Payton Manning vs Mark Sanchez. Where's your money going? If the Jets are within 7 1/2 points after Indianapolis' second position it'll be a minor miracle. this game is a blowout unless the Colts decide to rest themselves after half-time. The Colts are a BEST BET!

New Orleans 3 1/2 Minnesota: Fair enough. The line dropped half-a-fucking-point since betting opened but that's a meaningless move. Four is a stupid number anyway. Like me, a good portion of the betting public envision a fairy tale season for Brett Farve. The guy is good. And I'd love to see him square off against Manning in the Super Bowl. But football is a team sport and it's not going to be Farve vs Brees throwing a football 30 yards through a tire hanging from a tree limb. The Saints can score and if the Vikings have to play "catch-up" anything can happen except a victory. On the other hand, New Orleans can be slow starters and Minnesota has shown signs of being the "Purple People Eaters" of long ago. This is definitely a coaches game and I'm willing to bet that Brad Childress has maybe enough brains to put the play calling in to Brett's hands and the old "gun slinger" will be anything but conservative. A quick, early score and lead makes the Vikings winners and at the end that half-point may be just enough to cash a winning wager. I'll take the Vikings since anything but a complete collapse will make them losers against the spread.

So here's my official summation: The Colts are a BEST BET. Easily. I'm going with the Vikings but I can't make them a Best Bet. It'll be close or a complete blow-out depending on the intelligence of the respective coaches. Neither team can afford to come-from-behind in this contest. I'll bet Farve is smart enough to realize that.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks, Playoff picks

Officially I'm 1-1 this weekend and unofficially I'm 3-1. The Jets surprised me and the rest of the world by actually winning their game and the Ravens just plain sucked. In my gut I knew that Baltimore was an undependable bunch and Joe Flacco is no quarterback. But I despised the way the "Dolts" ended their season and I didn't question my ratings when it came to analyzing that match-up. I wanted the Colts to go down in embarrassing flames and that tainted my view of that game. There's no doubt that Payton Manning is a great QB and Baltimore's highly over rated defense is a sham. It's really not all that tough to think that since they played only a few games against any kind of offensive opponent. They did impress me by spanking the Patriots and I should have looked further but, at the time, that was good enough for me.

Minnesota demolished the hapless Cowboys and nobody should be very surprised by that since Farve was his usually and expected self. The idiot analysts that expected anything else never took their heads out of their asses long enough to see the obvious. Yeah, sure, Brett Farve might crack under the pressure of that playoff game (since he never ever was in that position before). Can anything be dumber then saying that? Tony (Who?) Romo simply isn't that great of a quarterback. Add the idiot coach Philips to that equation and you have the complete formula for "LOSER"!

The Jets "stunned" the Chargers merely because both teams were over rated. During the entire NFL season nobody cared about San Diego and New York backed in to the playoffs based on the stupidity of Indianapolis. They certainly were good enough to knock off a marginal team like the Chargers.

Saint Louis toyed with the useless defense of Arizona and who was stupid enough not to see that coming? They managed to hold the Packers to only 45 points and won in overtime on a fluke despite the fact that Kurt Warner had an excellent game. (And this is sarcasm for all you ESPN correspondents who are reading this) the Saints certainly don't have the offensive power of the Green Bay Packers. Jesus Christ, how stupid is that thinking? They ran-up another 45 and that has to be some kind of record of points allowed in back-to-back playoff games. What a surprise!

Next week there will be only two games left and that will be the Colts against the Jets, and the Saints versus the Vikings. My initial reaction is that I hope the Colts lose (as they deserve) but they are a better team. I'm also pulling for Minnesota but I do like the Saints.

I'm not checking the "official" line but here's mine:

Indianapolis EVEN New York: That's what my stats say. The Colts will be favored but I can't predict how stupid the spread will be. Maybe rolling over like complete fucking losers was a good idea the last time they played, or maybe they knew they couldn't win anyway. Or maybe they realized how easy it would be to trounce the Jets if they really tried. I'll be going with the latter and I'm taking the Colts to bring the Jets back to reality by mauling them regardless of the line. I'm highly doubting a 10 point spread for this game so right now the Colts are my pick.

New Orleans EVEN Minnesota: That, of course, will not be the line. I imagine the Saints will be giving up points. If I wasn't an idiot and a odds maker, I'd make the Saints a 3 point favorite just to get some money on the Vikings. I'm rooting for Farve and all but the real world is the real world. Drew Brees is Brett Farve ten years ago and Brett is Brett now. Football is a team sport and New Orleans is the better team. Nice try, Brett, but you ain't winning this one.

This post is simply based on the weekend's results and have nothing to do with the line that will be coming out. I haven't seen it yet. Knowing what I do about how the lines are made I have to predict that the Colts will be a seven-point favorite and the Saint's will probably be favored by three. Not a great deal to work with and, statistically speaking, not very solid plays. I'll have more solid plays in a few days or so. Right now the winners are obvious. It's just a matter of by how much.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks

The useless Packers were an error away from giving me a satisfying 2-0 record for the initial playoff week and they managed to screw me. Because they played down to the level they've demonstrated all year not only is their season over but the losers left me at 1-1. If Rodgers could have completed the most important pass of his career I'd be be a golden 2-0! Instead Green Bay has stamped themselves as the least likely team to ever go anywhere meaningful in the future. Rodgers simply isn't a big time quarterback. Bret would have connected in OT. As much as I doubt the integrity of any NFL team these days I'm chalking this loss up to the incompetence of a soon-to-be proven mediocre QB. What the hell, I was 1-1. No harm, no foul.

New England is/was totally dependent on Brady and that was a proven fact in their loss. I didn't trust him or Baltimore's inability to play at any level of consistency and passing that game was wise. Now there's a new week and things are looking more reliable. Here goes:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 7 Arizona Cardinals: A very fair number. It's overtly obvious that the Cardinals have no defense and the Saints can score like motherfuckers. I make them seven point favorites, too. And that ends up making this game a pass.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 6½ Baltimore Ravens: I hate the whole "1/2" point thing. Sure, Manning can be unbelievable but Baltimore has something more going for them. They just humiliated the Patriot's. My numbers say the Ravens should win by 2 1/2 and if Payton doesn't play error free ball this could be just as ugly. I have to go with the Ravens here. Even if the Colts manage to win this one, it won't be by much. Baltimore is a BEST BET!


MINNESOTA VIKINGS 3 Dallas Cowboys: No matter how you look at this game, it's not a 3 point line. My numbers make it a three point game and I can't accept that. Favre either answers the call and dominates, or Dallas is the truly "miracle" team of the year and squashes them. It'll come down to coaching and play calling and I have very little confidence in Phillips. From a purely statistical level I have to pass on this one.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 7 New York Jets: No one is more surprised then me that the Jets have gotten this far. And by no one I mean there is not a human being on the planet earth who is more surprised then my self that the New York Jets actual made the play-offs. Having said that, my numbers make this an even game. That means I have to support the Jets here. With only four games this weekend I have to take what I can get and the Jets have an edge. The New York Jets are a Best Bet!

Time for the caveat. There's only four games to play this weekend and you can't count on any of them. My usual, highly reliable statistics once again point to a major parlay. Baltimore-New York. Two "dogs" getting too many points. At this stage of the playoffs I have to believe (or what's the use of even trying to bet) that there's no "fix". So go with that.

If you're a major action junkie take this in to consideration: The Cardinals were totally inept when it came to holding back the Packers and should have/could have lost the game. Even if Kurt Warner has another historic day the Cardinals' defense is so porous that Brees will eat them up. He's no Aaron "Loser" Rodgers here. The Saints will slice-and-dice the "Cards" and destroy them. The seven points is actually a joke if both teams play to their overt potential. I'm liking the Saints here by a whole bunch!

The Colts were on a winning streak and could have made history but they folded for any number of disgusting reasons to allow the Jets to make the playoffs. Idiot coaching like that fails to take in to account the fact that every team in the NFL is only a few plays away from beating any other team in the league. maybe Manning can play a flawless game but I wouldn't bet on it.

This game is strictly from my heart. I really want to see Brett Farve make total fools of every single sports analyst that wrote him off at the beginning of the year. Fuck them and their way too late realization that were totally wrong. The Vikings are a machine and, to put in simple terms, the Cowboys are just plain lucky they got this far. Beating the hapless Eagles two weeks in a row means nothing. The meager three point line is proof of that.The Cowboys are the underdogs they deserve to be and that 3 points is just enough to lull the stupid bettors in to making a wager on "America's Team". Personally, I'm taking my winnings from Baltimore and putting it all on the Vikings. Romo has seen his best days and even a better day won't be nearly enough against one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

As I said before, I'm stunned that the Jets even made the playoffs. Maybe they're here in part to the stupidity of the Colts but they are here and have a lot of things in their favor. The Chargers are only in it because of their schedule. It may be close, and a touchdown may be the difference, but the Jets are actually playing inspired football. I have no idea what San Diego is doing. Nobody cared about them during the regular season. I'm trusting my numbers here since I think either team is a fluke to begin with.

So, just to clarify: Baltimore is a BEST BET given the spread. Losing this game would actually be a surprise.

The Jets will be in it all the way and seven points is too many to give them and they are a BEST BET, too.

You can sweep the whole weekend by taking the Saints, the Ravens, the Vikings, and the Jets. My stats will be based on the Ravens and the Jets. My superior insight in to the NFL will be obvious. The only decision you need to make is to play it safe or go for the big money.

Labels: football betting, football picks, Playoff picks

Maybe I'm being premature doing my victory dance but I was absolutely, 100%, totally correct in prognosticating the results Saturday. I made the New York Jets a Best Bet and I stated clearly that the not only would the Cowboys win but cover the spread. The only reason I didn't make Dallas a Best Bet was because my usually reliable numbers didn't give them enough of an edge. My gut certainly knew they would be easy winners but I'm trying to be very objective here since there is money on the line.

Being extremely wise and thoughtful when it comes to making wagers here I did recommend a parlay with the Jets and the Packers. I'm more confident then ever that Green Bay will win by more then the ridiculous point the Arizona (who?) Cardinals are giving them. It's clearly very bad strategy to rollover to an opponent In the final weeks of the NFL playoffs no matter what you're idiot coach may be thinking you have to at least try. At the moment I'm not sure who the moron is coaching the Cardinals is but he has set them up for a lose.And it will be be by more then then embarrassingly one point they're giving up.

If you were too dumb to make the parlay, take the Packers for a clear win. What more can I do?

Obviously if the was actually honesty and integrity in the NFL this week's lines would be obvious but, surprise surprise, things aren't as they should be in an honest world. Don't even try and hint that the NFL isn't mightily influenced by the gambling world. This weekend's lines are proof positive. Nobody's throwing any games or shaving points this week. This stuff is for real. So here goes:

CINCINNATI BENGALS 2½ New York Jets: Who didn't see this coming? Didn't the Jets just stomp the Bengals last week? How come they're getting points now? The Jets don't impress me but Cincinnati rolled-over so badly and showed such a total disregard for themselves and the game that there's no chance they can rebound. They'll fold up again since quitting has firmly been implanted in their nature. Sure, they took the money, cashed a few bets themselves, but now they're covered in loser stink. I make the Jets a 6 point favorite and a Best Bet!

DALLAS COWBOYS 4 Philadelphia Eagles: See the above. The Eagles are the Cowboys bitches and were beaten mercilessly last week by them. The line is based in some reality but the Cowboys will once again beat them. My gut says it'll be even more embarrassing then last week, but my numbers say this is a pass.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 3 Baltimore Ravens: I don't care who's hurt, etc. this is a dead even game. Play it at your own risk. The Patriots are Brady and the Ravens are as inconsistent as they come. Pass.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 1 Green Bay Packers: The "Pack" pounded the crap out of the "Cards" last time. No reason at all why Green Bay won't win by at least seven and that makes them a Best Bet.

Two out of four games are Best Bets. I suggest a parlay to maximize your profits. The teams that played it safe and folded will find they overrated themselves and will be reliving last week's nightmare. Don't be fooled.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks, Playoff picks

To re-cap a superior day:

First of, I’ve always warned that any of my selections concerning the Buffalo Bills are tainted by way too much information. I know how horrible they are. The fact they were favored in their debacle over the Colts should have (and actually did) send up a bunch of red flags. A more objective view would have made me strongly caution against playing this game but the logic was so overwhelming that I ended up on the wrong side.
So far: 0-1

Chicago and Detroit: This was a primary reason for me deciding to post picks again. The Bears easily covered by two touchdowns and only their dealers can explain how the book makers settled on a three point line.
So far: 1-1

Huston gave New England eight points and I understood the “rationale’ for this one. I didn’t accept it and the Patriots had a disappointing game but managed to cover.
So far: 2-1

The Jets just finished humiliating the Bengals and I sure missed out on that one. My guess is there’s a conspiracy in the NFL to allow the Jets a glimmer of hope. I believe this joke will be replayed Saturday and I’ll wait to see the line.
So far: 2-2

San Francisco and St. Louis: The line was feasible but the reality was even more obvious. The 49ers beat the Rams like a mule easily covering the 8 points.
So far: 3-2

Atlanta gave 2 points to Tampa Bay. Not nearly enough and Falcons won by ten, the more realistic line.
So far: 4-2

I didn’t really understand Arizona giving Green Bay any points and my reasoning proved sound as the Packers won outright.
So far: 5-2

The Baltimore Ravens proved themselves to be a non-contender by squeaking by the Raiders and unable to cover a more then realistic spread. They’ve just plain gone bad.
So far: 5-3

The Chargers failed to cover by half a point and ruined my day. Big difference between 5-4 and 6-3 in the gambling world. Though once again I’m better then most ‘professionals” it’s nothing to brag about. And if I had heeded my own advice I would have steered clear of the Bills-Colts embarrassment and ended up 5-3. As it is, I wound up 5-4.

There’s a lot that can be said for the lack of integrity in the NFL but it is kind of obvious. Next week starts a whole new season as far as betting goes. Everybody will be trying, nobody will be throwing any games, and the contenders will whip the pretenders. See you Friday.

Labels: football betting, football picks

I haven’t done picks in a while for two reasons: I just didn’t have the time or inclination to do them on a regular basis, and some of the lines were so out of whack that they made no sense to me. I just didn’t get it. After informally following the last 15 weeks I’ve come to this conclusion. The odds makers are as mediocre as the teams they’re attempting to decipher. Scanning this week’s games the lines are so nonsensical and ineptly created that this is going to be a breeze. Despite the common sense approach to the playoffs nobody should be surprised. Every single team in the playoffs approaches the final games with the exact same attitude. Most aren’t as blatant about it. And if anybody thinks the lousy teams are playing with any integrity this time of year, well they know little about professional sports. That being said, the whole “intangible” of will and desire has been included in my calculations (i.e. “it ain’t a factor”). Every team plays to its level, every time. So that being said, here’s the final week’s of regular season games:

BUFFALO 8½ Indianapolis: They stayed away from this one for a while. Will the Colts actually try to win this one? What about the weather? What is everybody smoking? The Buffalo Bills are favored over the Indianapolis Colts?! Why, because Payton Manning isn’t playing? Buffalo doesn’t even have a quarterback! In order for Buffalo to win by 8 ½ they’d have to score at least one touchdown while holding the Colts scoreless. That’s not even a remote possibility. Under ‘normal” circumstances Indianapolis should be a 14 ½ point favorite. I just don’t see a total reversal here. Indianapolis is a great BET!!!

CLEVELAND 1½ Jacksonville: Nobody really cares but it is a stunning line. Picking the Browns under any circumstances is a stretch. I make Jacksonville 3 ½ point favorite. Not quite good enough for a best bet. There are plenty of other games to choose from.

DALLAS 3 Philadelphia: I hate Dallas. And I have no love for the Eagles. It’s appropriate that the two most overrated teams in the league are meeting this weekend. It’ll probably be a one-sided affair. The Eagles should be a two point favorite and, if both teams play down to their potential, Philadelphia should win by that many touchdowns. Whatever happens here, it won’t be a decided by a field goal. Another marginal play.

Chicago 3 DETROIT: No one’s more disappointed in the Bears this year then me. I know Cutler is crazy, but he is a good quarterback. And Detroit is Detroit. This is easily Chicago 10 DETROIT. One of those insignificant gems that offer a BEST BET opportunity, take the Bears.

HOUSTON 8 New England: Yes, that’s right. It certainly looks like a misprint since the line should be the exact opposite. I know all the “psychology” (and possibly drugs) that went in to concocting this line. Unless I missed the press conference when the Pat’s announced they weren’t even going to show up for the game, something’s really wrong here. Jump on it! New England’s another BEST BET!

Pittsburgh 3 MIAMI: Initially this one amazed me. But upon further review, I tend to agree. It’s hard to relegate the Steelers’s to the same mediocrity as the Dolphins but I can’t make a case for them though my gut says they’ll easily cover the three points. Pass.

MINNESOTA 9 NY Giants: Nothing to say about this one. I have to agree and this a pass.

NY JETS 10 Cincinnati: I reluctantly make the Jets a 1 ½ point favorite. I can’t imagine them even winning this but my numbers say they can. Just not by 10 points. That gives the Bengals an 8 ½ point edge and makes them a BEST BET.

San Francisco 8 ST LOUIS: Why not? San Francisco has turned out to be one of the year’s big disappointments and St. Louis hasn’t surprised any one other the Lion’s (the only team they managed to beat). Long story short, San Francisco should win by twice as much and get my vote as another BEST BET.

Atlanta 2 TAMPA BAY: Another line I just don’t get. It should be Atlanta 10 TAMPA BAY and have no idea why anybody thinks this will be close. Atlanta is a BEST BET.

ARIZONA 3½ Green Bay: I make it Green Bay 4 ARIZONA. I have to admit, the Cardinals have been off my radar. But here they are, in the playoffs. That may have something to do with the teams they’ve been playing. Anyway, the Packers look like a BEST BET here.

DENVER 11 Kansas City: Can’t argue with this line. Pass.

Baltimore 10½ OAKLAND: That’s a big number. I make it even bigger. The Ravens by at least nine more and this games is one of the reasons I saw opportunity this week. If they can’t stomp the hapless Raiders they’re not going to win. That makes Baltimore a BEST BET.

SAN DIEGO 3½ Washington: The odds makers are about 10 points light on this one. The Chargers will demolish the Redskins and this is just another one of those games that got me back here. Chargers are a BEST BET!

Tennessee 4 SEATTLE: I suppose. That’s what I make it. There’s plenty of other action. Pass.

Nine Best Bets is quite a lot, I know. Some of the lines are based on certain assumptions that certain teams will rollover. Part of it is that all of the sudden, teams that were lousy during the year will suddenly spring to life with their last gasp at the play-offs. Some are assumed to have some kind of “pride” that will some how make a difference in the last week.

Unless you have some serious inside information using that as a factor is plain absurd. Take my home team, the Buffalo Bills. I really don’t know if Manning and the rest are starting. What I do know is that their very best, the Bills are totally inept at finding the end zone. They can’t stop a running game under any circumstances. Even against the Colts’ entire second string it would an uphill battle for them. And a group of second-stringers desiring to show their pride and talent may make it an even game at best for Buffalo.

No, I’m not trying to taint my numbers with supposition. Feel free to discard any bet because some of the nine picks here amount to little more then pre-season games to you. I just think that’s the way to approach this final week.

Labels: football betting, football picks