NFL Picks

The lines are official and shouldn't be much of a surprise. They are adjusted from reality to reflect the public's point-of-view.

My numbers are calculated based on statistics but they do appear shaky at times since they're based on regular season play and not exclusively on quality opponents. So for the current playoff games I've ranked both games as even. That would more-or-less mandate playing the "dog". Simple enough but I'm not taking that route. If you want to play it conservatively go for it. I see things a little differently.

Indianapolis 7 1/2 New York: I despise the Colts giving away their last two games of the regular season as much as anyone. Those guys are paid millions of dollars to entertain us and then they decide to flaunt their wealth, laugh at the very people paying them, and expect accolades when they do what they're supposed to. I'd love to see the Colts whipped like mules but it ain't gonna happen. Fact is, they went through the entire season undefeated and won every game they wanted to. Once they safely put away the Jets the last time they played them they gave themselves a break. Their finale was against the Bills and not even a diehard Bills fan would have expected a victory if the real Colts were on the field. Meanwhile, the Jets backed their way in to the playoffs and are living the dream. It's about to turn into a nightmare. Rate New York's marvelous defense any way you want, they haven't faced much of Payton Manning and they are about to be introduced to a guy who has something to prove. They managed to beat the self-destructive Chargers which can only be explained by "karma" or something. They can't depend on flubbed field goals here since the Colts will be finding the end zone every chance they get. It comes down to Payton Manning vs Mark Sanchez. Where's your money going? If the Jets are within 7 1/2 points after Indianapolis' second position it'll be a minor miracle. this game is a blowout unless the Colts decide to rest themselves after half-time. The Colts are a BEST BET!

New Orleans 3 1/2 Minnesota: Fair enough. The line dropped half-a-fucking-point since betting opened but that's a meaningless move. Four is a stupid number anyway. Like me, a good portion of the betting public envision a fairy tale season for Brett Farve. The guy is good. And I'd love to see him square off against Manning in the Super Bowl. But football is a team sport and it's not going to be Farve vs Brees throwing a football 30 yards through a tire hanging from a tree limb. The Saints can score and if the Vikings have to play "catch-up" anything can happen except a victory. On the other hand, New Orleans can be slow starters and Minnesota has shown signs of being the "Purple People Eaters" of long ago. This is definitely a coaches game and I'm willing to bet that Brad Childress has maybe enough brains to put the play calling in to Brett's hands and the old "gun slinger" will be anything but conservative. A quick, early score and lead makes the Vikings winners and at the end that half-point may be just enough to cash a winning wager. I'll take the Vikings since anything but a complete collapse will make them losers against the spread.

So here's my official summation: The Colts are a BEST BET. Easily. I'm going with the Vikings but I can't make them a Best Bet. It'll be close or a complete blow-out depending on the intelligence of the respective coaches. Neither team can afford to come-from-behind in this contest. I'll bet Farve is smart enough to realize that.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks, Playoff picks

Officially I'm 1-1 this weekend and unofficially I'm 3-1. The Jets surprised me and the rest of the world by actually winning their game and the Ravens just plain sucked. In my gut I knew that Baltimore was an undependable bunch and Joe Flacco is no quarterback. But I despised the way the "Dolts" ended their season and I didn't question my ratings when it came to analyzing that match-up. I wanted the Colts to go down in embarrassing flames and that tainted my view of that game. There's no doubt that Payton Manning is a great QB and Baltimore's highly over rated defense is a sham. It's really not all that tough to think that since they played only a few games against any kind of offensive opponent. They did impress me by spanking the Patriots and I should have looked further but, at the time, that was good enough for me.

Minnesota demolished the hapless Cowboys and nobody should be very surprised by that since Farve was his usually and expected self. The idiot analysts that expected anything else never took their heads out of their asses long enough to see the obvious. Yeah, sure, Brett Farve might crack under the pressure of that playoff game (since he never ever was in that position before). Can anything be dumber then saying that? Tony (Who?) Romo simply isn't that great of a quarterback. Add the idiot coach Philips to that equation and you have the complete formula for "LOSER"!

The Jets "stunned" the Chargers merely because both teams were over rated. During the entire NFL season nobody cared about San Diego and New York backed in to the playoffs based on the stupidity of Indianapolis. They certainly were good enough to knock off a marginal team like the Chargers.

Saint Louis toyed with the useless defense of Arizona and who was stupid enough not to see that coming? They managed to hold the Packers to only 45 points and won in overtime on a fluke despite the fact that Kurt Warner had an excellent game. (And this is sarcasm for all you ESPN correspondents who are reading this) the Saints certainly don't have the offensive power of the Green Bay Packers. Jesus Christ, how stupid is that thinking? They ran-up another 45 and that has to be some kind of record of points allowed in back-to-back playoff games. What a surprise!

Next week there will be only two games left and that will be the Colts against the Jets, and the Saints versus the Vikings. My initial reaction is that I hope the Colts lose (as they deserve) but they are a better team. I'm also pulling for Minnesota but I do like the Saints.

I'm not checking the "official" line but here's mine:

Indianapolis EVEN New York: That's what my stats say. The Colts will be favored but I can't predict how stupid the spread will be. Maybe rolling over like complete fucking losers was a good idea the last time they played, or maybe they knew they couldn't win anyway. Or maybe they realized how easy it would be to trounce the Jets if they really tried. I'll be going with the latter and I'm taking the Colts to bring the Jets back to reality by mauling them regardless of the line. I'm highly doubting a 10 point spread for this game so right now the Colts are my pick.

New Orleans EVEN Minnesota: That, of course, will not be the line. I imagine the Saints will be giving up points. If I wasn't an idiot and a odds maker, I'd make the Saints a 3 point favorite just to get some money on the Vikings. I'm rooting for Farve and all but the real world is the real world. Drew Brees is Brett Farve ten years ago and Brett is Brett now. Football is a team sport and New Orleans is the better team. Nice try, Brett, but you ain't winning this one.

This post is simply based on the weekend's results and have nothing to do with the line that will be coming out. I haven't seen it yet. Knowing what I do about how the lines are made I have to predict that the Colts will be a seven-point favorite and the Saint's will probably be favored by three. Not a great deal to work with and, statistically speaking, not very solid plays. I'll have more solid plays in a few days or so. Right now the winners are obvious. It's just a matter of by how much.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks

The useless Packers were an error away from giving me a satisfying 2-0 record for the initial playoff week and they managed to screw me. Because they played down to the level they've demonstrated all year not only is their season over but the losers left me at 1-1. If Rodgers could have completed the most important pass of his career I'd be be a golden 2-0! Instead Green Bay has stamped themselves as the least likely team to ever go anywhere meaningful in the future. Rodgers simply isn't a big time quarterback. Bret would have connected in OT. As much as I doubt the integrity of any NFL team these days I'm chalking this loss up to the incompetence of a soon-to-be proven mediocre QB. What the hell, I was 1-1. No harm, no foul.

New England is/was totally dependent on Brady and that was a proven fact in their loss. I didn't trust him or Baltimore's inability to play at any level of consistency and passing that game was wise. Now there's a new week and things are looking more reliable. Here goes:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 7 Arizona Cardinals: A very fair number. It's overtly obvious that the Cardinals have no defense and the Saints can score like motherfuckers. I make them seven point favorites, too. And that ends up making this game a pass.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 6½ Baltimore Ravens: I hate the whole "1/2" point thing. Sure, Manning can be unbelievable but Baltimore has something more going for them. They just humiliated the Patriot's. My numbers say the Ravens should win by 2 1/2 and if Payton doesn't play error free ball this could be just as ugly. I have to go with the Ravens here. Even if the Colts manage to win this one, it won't be by much. Baltimore is a BEST BET!


MINNESOTA VIKINGS 3 Dallas Cowboys: No matter how you look at this game, it's not a 3 point line. My numbers make it a three point game and I can't accept that. Favre either answers the call and dominates, or Dallas is the truly "miracle" team of the year and squashes them. It'll come down to coaching and play calling and I have very little confidence in Phillips. From a purely statistical level I have to pass on this one.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 7 New York Jets: No one is more surprised then me that the Jets have gotten this far. And by no one I mean there is not a human being on the planet earth who is more surprised then my self that the New York Jets actual made the play-offs. Having said that, my numbers make this an even game. That means I have to support the Jets here. With only four games this weekend I have to take what I can get and the Jets have an edge. The New York Jets are a Best Bet!

Time for the caveat. There's only four games to play this weekend and you can't count on any of them. My usual, highly reliable statistics once again point to a major parlay. Baltimore-New York. Two "dogs" getting too many points. At this stage of the playoffs I have to believe (or what's the use of even trying to bet) that there's no "fix". So go with that.

If you're a major action junkie take this in to consideration: The Cardinals were totally inept when it came to holding back the Packers and should have/could have lost the game. Even if Kurt Warner has another historic day the Cardinals' defense is so porous that Brees will eat them up. He's no Aaron "Loser" Rodgers here. The Saints will slice-and-dice the "Cards" and destroy them. The seven points is actually a joke if both teams play to their overt potential. I'm liking the Saints here by a whole bunch!

The Colts were on a winning streak and could have made history but they folded for any number of disgusting reasons to allow the Jets to make the playoffs. Idiot coaching like that fails to take in to account the fact that every team in the NFL is only a few plays away from beating any other team in the league. maybe Manning can play a flawless game but I wouldn't bet on it.

This game is strictly from my heart. I really want to see Brett Farve make total fools of every single sports analyst that wrote him off at the beginning of the year. Fuck them and their way too late realization that were totally wrong. The Vikings are a machine and, to put in simple terms, the Cowboys are just plain lucky they got this far. Beating the hapless Eagles two weeks in a row means nothing. The meager three point line is proof of that.The Cowboys are the underdogs they deserve to be and that 3 points is just enough to lull the stupid bettors in to making a wager on "America's Team". Personally, I'm taking my winnings from Baltimore and putting it all on the Vikings. Romo has seen his best days and even a better day won't be nearly enough against one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

As I said before, I'm stunned that the Jets even made the playoffs. Maybe they're here in part to the stupidity of the Colts but they are here and have a lot of things in their favor. The Chargers are only in it because of their schedule. It may be close, and a touchdown may be the difference, but the Jets are actually playing inspired football. I have no idea what San Diego is doing. Nobody cared about them during the regular season. I'm trusting my numbers here since I think either team is a fluke to begin with.

So, just to clarify: Baltimore is a BEST BET given the spread. Losing this game would actually be a surprise.

The Jets will be in it all the way and seven points is too many to give them and they are a BEST BET, too.

You can sweep the whole weekend by taking the Saints, the Ravens, the Vikings, and the Jets. My stats will be based on the Ravens and the Jets. My superior insight in to the NFL will be obvious. The only decision you need to make is to play it safe or go for the big money.

Labels: football betting, football picks, Playoff picks

Obviously if the was actually honesty and integrity in the NFL this week's lines would be obvious but, surprise surprise, things aren't as they should be in an honest world. Don't even try and hint that the NFL isn't mightily influenced by the gambling world. This weekend's lines are proof positive. Nobody's throwing any games or shaving points this week. This stuff is for real. So here goes:

CINCINNATI BENGALS 2½ New York Jets: Who didn't see this coming? Didn't the Jets just stomp the Bengals last week? How come they're getting points now? The Jets don't impress me but Cincinnati rolled-over so badly and showed such a total disregard for themselves and the game that there's no chance they can rebound. They'll fold up again since quitting has firmly been implanted in their nature. Sure, they took the money, cashed a few bets themselves, but now they're covered in loser stink. I make the Jets a 6 point favorite and a Best Bet!

DALLAS COWBOYS 4 Philadelphia Eagles: See the above. The Eagles are the Cowboys bitches and were beaten mercilessly last week by them. The line is based in some reality but the Cowboys will once again beat them. My gut says it'll be even more embarrassing then last week, but my numbers say this is a pass.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 3 Baltimore Ravens: I don't care who's hurt, etc. this is a dead even game. Play it at your own risk. The Patriots are Brady and the Ravens are as inconsistent as they come. Pass.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 1 Green Bay Packers: The "Pack" pounded the crap out of the "Cards" last time. No reason at all why Green Bay won't win by at least seven and that makes them a Best Bet.

Two out of four games are Best Bets. I suggest a parlay to maximize your profits. The teams that played it safe and folded will find they overrated themselves and will be reliving last week's nightmare. Don't be fooled.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks, Playoff picks

To re-cap a superior day:

First of, I’ve always warned that any of my selections concerning the Buffalo Bills are tainted by way too much information. I know how horrible they are. The fact they were favored in their debacle over the Colts should have (and actually did) send up a bunch of red flags. A more objective view would have made me strongly caution against playing this game but the logic was so overwhelming that I ended up on the wrong side.
So far: 0-1

Chicago and Detroit: This was a primary reason for me deciding to post picks again. The Bears easily covered by two touchdowns and only their dealers can explain how the book makers settled on a three point line.
So far: 1-1

Huston gave New England eight points and I understood the “rationale’ for this one. I didn’t accept it and the Patriots had a disappointing game but managed to cover.
So far: 2-1

The Jets just finished humiliating the Bengals and I sure missed out on that one. My guess is there’s a conspiracy in the NFL to allow the Jets a glimmer of hope. I believe this joke will be replayed Saturday and I’ll wait to see the line.
So far: 2-2

San Francisco and St. Louis: The line was feasible but the reality was even more obvious. The 49ers beat the Rams like a mule easily covering the 8 points.
So far: 3-2

Atlanta gave 2 points to Tampa Bay. Not nearly enough and Falcons won by ten, the more realistic line.
So far: 4-2

I didn’t really understand Arizona giving Green Bay any points and my reasoning proved sound as the Packers won outright.
So far: 5-2

The Baltimore Ravens proved themselves to be a non-contender by squeaking by the Raiders and unable to cover a more then realistic spread. They’ve just plain gone bad.
So far: 5-3

The Chargers failed to cover by half a point and ruined my day. Big difference between 5-4 and 6-3 in the gambling world. Though once again I’m better then most ‘professionals” it’s nothing to brag about. And if I had heeded my own advice I would have steered clear of the Bills-Colts embarrassment and ended up 5-3. As it is, I wound up 5-4.

There’s a lot that can be said for the lack of integrity in the NFL but it is kind of obvious. Next week starts a whole new season as far as betting goes. Everybody will be trying, nobody will be throwing any games, and the contenders will whip the pretenders. See you Friday.

Labels: football betting, football picks

I haven’t done picks in a while for two reasons: I just didn’t have the time or inclination to do them on a regular basis, and some of the lines were so out of whack that they made no sense to me. I just didn’t get it. After informally following the last 15 weeks I’ve come to this conclusion. The odds makers are as mediocre as the teams they’re attempting to decipher. Scanning this week’s games the lines are so nonsensical and ineptly created that this is going to be a breeze. Despite the common sense approach to the playoffs nobody should be surprised. Every single team in the playoffs approaches the final games with the exact same attitude. Most aren’t as blatant about it. And if anybody thinks the lousy teams are playing with any integrity this time of year, well they know little about professional sports. That being said, the whole “intangible” of will and desire has been included in my calculations (i.e. “it ain’t a factor”). Every team plays to its level, every time. So that being said, here’s the final week’s of regular season games:

BUFFALO 8½ Indianapolis: They stayed away from this one for a while. Will the Colts actually try to win this one? What about the weather? What is everybody smoking? The Buffalo Bills are favored over the Indianapolis Colts?! Why, because Payton Manning isn’t playing? Buffalo doesn’t even have a quarterback! In order for Buffalo to win by 8 ½ they’d have to score at least one touchdown while holding the Colts scoreless. That’s not even a remote possibility. Under ‘normal” circumstances Indianapolis should be a 14 ½ point favorite. I just don’t see a total reversal here. Indianapolis is a great BET!!!

CLEVELAND 1½ Jacksonville: Nobody really cares but it is a stunning line. Picking the Browns under any circumstances is a stretch. I make Jacksonville 3 ½ point favorite. Not quite good enough for a best bet. There are plenty of other games to choose from.

DALLAS 3 Philadelphia: I hate Dallas. And I have no love for the Eagles. It’s appropriate that the two most overrated teams in the league are meeting this weekend. It’ll probably be a one-sided affair. The Eagles should be a two point favorite and, if both teams play down to their potential, Philadelphia should win by that many touchdowns. Whatever happens here, it won’t be a decided by a field goal. Another marginal play.

Chicago 3 DETROIT: No one’s more disappointed in the Bears this year then me. I know Cutler is crazy, but he is a good quarterback. And Detroit is Detroit. This is easily Chicago 10 DETROIT. One of those insignificant gems that offer a BEST BET opportunity, take the Bears.

HOUSTON 8 New England: Yes, that’s right. It certainly looks like a misprint since the line should be the exact opposite. I know all the “psychology” (and possibly drugs) that went in to concocting this line. Unless I missed the press conference when the Pat’s announced they weren’t even going to show up for the game, something’s really wrong here. Jump on it! New England’s another BEST BET!

Pittsburgh 3 MIAMI: Initially this one amazed me. But upon further review, I tend to agree. It’s hard to relegate the Steelers’s to the same mediocrity as the Dolphins but I can’t make a case for them though my gut says they’ll easily cover the three points. Pass.

MINNESOTA 9 NY Giants: Nothing to say about this one. I have to agree and this a pass.

NY JETS 10 Cincinnati: I reluctantly make the Jets a 1 ½ point favorite. I can’t imagine them even winning this but my numbers say they can. Just not by 10 points. That gives the Bengals an 8 ½ point edge and makes them a BEST BET.

San Francisco 8 ST LOUIS: Why not? San Francisco has turned out to be one of the year’s big disappointments and St. Louis hasn’t surprised any one other the Lion’s (the only team they managed to beat). Long story short, San Francisco should win by twice as much and get my vote as another BEST BET.

Atlanta 2 TAMPA BAY: Another line I just don’t get. It should be Atlanta 10 TAMPA BAY and have no idea why anybody thinks this will be close. Atlanta is a BEST BET.

ARIZONA 3½ Green Bay: I make it Green Bay 4 ARIZONA. I have to admit, the Cardinals have been off my radar. But here they are, in the playoffs. That may have something to do with the teams they’ve been playing. Anyway, the Packers look like a BEST BET here.

DENVER 11 Kansas City: Can’t argue with this line. Pass.

Baltimore 10½ OAKLAND: That’s a big number. I make it even bigger. The Ravens by at least nine more and this games is one of the reasons I saw opportunity this week. If they can’t stomp the hapless Raiders they’re not going to win. That makes Baltimore a BEST BET.

SAN DIEGO 3½ Washington: The odds makers are about 10 points light on this one. The Chargers will demolish the Redskins and this is just another one of those games that got me back here. Chargers are a BEST BET!

Tennessee 4 SEATTLE: I suppose. That’s what I make it. There’s plenty of other action. Pass.

Nine Best Bets is quite a lot, I know. Some of the lines are based on certain assumptions that certain teams will rollover. Part of it is that all of the sudden, teams that were lousy during the year will suddenly spring to life with their last gasp at the play-offs. Some are assumed to have some kind of “pride” that will some how make a difference in the last week.

Unless you have some serious inside information using that as a factor is plain absurd. Take my home team, the Buffalo Bills. I really don’t know if Manning and the rest are starting. What I do know is that their very best, the Bills are totally inept at finding the end zone. They can’t stop a running game under any circumstances. Even against the Colts’ entire second string it would an uphill battle for them. And a group of second-stringers desiring to show their pride and talent may make it an even game at best for Buffalo.

No, I’m not trying to taint my numbers with supposition. Feel free to discard any bet because some of the nine picks here amount to little more then pre-season games to you. I just think that’s the way to approach this final week.

Labels: football betting, football picks

Week five and everything is starting to come together. A lot is starting to make sense so here goes:


Minnesota is giving ten to St.Louis. That makes sense since the Vikings are 4-0 and the Rams are 0-4. Pretty easy choice. After Monday night’s “emotional” victory you may be looking for a “let down” from the Vikings. On the other hand, they’ve been on a roll since the first day and they seem to be getting more inspired. I don’t see a let down, and say Minnesota should be at least my numbers a 20 point favorite. A BEST BET.

Dallas is giving Kansas City seven. America’s team is giving one of the worst teams in the NFL only seven? Not as crazy as it seems, I make it an 8 point game. Pass.

Washington is getting 4 from Carolina. Despite looking pretty bad against Tampa, at least the Redskins have won a couple games. The Panthers can’t say the same. Besides, I make Washington a big favorite (17 points). If nothing else, they keep their games close. I make the Redskins a BEST BET.

Philadelphia is giving Tampa 15 points. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a line like that. It’s the kind of line I’d make for this game. Actually, mine is 17. As tempting as getting two touchdowns might be (and that is the point of having a spread) pass this one.

Likewise, the Giants are giving up 15 to the Oakland “we-may-be-the-worst-team-ever” Raiders. I’m thinking that’s not big enough. I make the Giants 21 point favorites but, since I have absolutely no respect for them when it comes to covering spreads, I’m going to have to call this a game to pass.

Buffalo is giving 6 to Cleveland. You have one team with slightly better then mediocre talent and a totally inept coach versus a team with slightly better then mediocre talent and a totally inept coach. Win or lose, both play totally inconsistently and are hard to predict on any level. I actually agree with this line though I find it out of touch with the most likely outcome. If (and it’s a big “IF”), Buffalo hasn’t decided to call it quits, the six points mean nothing. They should stomp the Browns. On other hand, they are Buffalo. I’m going out on a limb here and I’m taking the Bills. A BEST BET.

Baltimore is giving Cincinnati 8 ½ points. I can’t even begin to guess where a line like that comes from. At best it should be six. It’s a pass.

Pittsburg is giving 10 ½ to Detroit. The Steelers are struggling and Detroit is no longer the worst team in the NFL. I have to agree with this line. Pass.

San Francisco is giving 2 ½ to Atlanta. I make the line 11. The 49ers may be the most underrated team in the NFL. They won’t be making it to the Super Bowl this year, but if things keep going the way they have been, they may win the Super Bowl of betting opportunities. Definitely a BEST BET.

New England is minus 3 ½ to Denver. I actually make the undefeated Bronco’s 12 point favorites. I know its Brady and all that, but, the spread is so out of whack that I have to make Denver a BEST BET.

Arizona and Huston has Huston getting 5 ½ points. Arizona is far from their Super Bowl form and I make this game dead even. I’m tempted to make Huston the pick here, but I have to pass this one. (If they do cover, I’ll be kicking myself).

Indianapolis gives only 3 ½ to Tennessee. A 4-0 team playing a 0-4 team in their own division and the spread is 3 ½? Am I living in some kind of parallel universe? The numbers (and reason) say jump all over this one. This seems to be one of those “somebody-knows-something” kind of lines. This should be an 11 or 12 point game. In any case the 3 ½ is loony enough to be concerned about, but I still make the Colts a Best Bet.

The latest numbers I can find for Seattle and Jacksonville is even, which is as it should be. If you really want to bet this game just flip a coin, otherwise pass.

On Monday night it’s the Jets versus the Dolphins and New York is giving up the standard 1 ½ points to the home team. I make it a six point game in favor of the Jets. Not a best bet but I’m just not impressed with any team that uses the “Wildcat” offense. If Sunday turns out to be a profitable day I’ll press my luck by taking New York.


Six Best Bets isn’t bad at all. And, if it ends up being a 6-0 or even a 4-2 day, you can take a shot on the Jets Monday night.

Labels: football betting, football picks

When you’re firmly established as the best football handicapper in the world, word spreads and the odds makers get nervous. Proof positive? Not coincidentally, the “official” lines match my lines with only a few scant exceptions and only two overtly useful one. The marginal differences are most likely due to bettor patterns, road versus home and other irrelevant handicapping factors, but not irrelevant to line making. A more thorough analysis will follow, but first, take note of the uncanny accuracy of the line making:

THURSDAY

(I know it’s too late to post this but it wasn’t playable and I detest the whole concept of Thursday night games solely to benefit the NFL network. As far as I’m concerned, unless it’s Thanksgiving, Thursday night football is a travesty).

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 10 Oakland Raiders

(SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 8 ½…No Play)

SUNDAY

(The real games)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 14 Cincinnati Bengals

(INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 14…No play)

CHICAGO BEARS 7 Jacksonville Jaguars

(CHICAGO BEARS 4 ½ …No Play)

GREEN BAY PACKERS 6 Houston Texans

(GREEN BAY PACKERS 5 … No Play)

TENNESSEE 14 Cleveland

(TENNESSEE 13 ½ …No Play)

Minnesota 9 ½ DETROIT

(Minnesota 17 ½ …BEST BET)

(BALTIMORE 5 Washington

(BALTIMORE 9 ½ …No Play)

NY GIANTS 7 Philadelphia

(NY GIANTS 6…No Play)

NEW ORLEANS 3 Atlanta

(Atlanta 1 ½ …No Play)

NY Jets 3 SAN FRANCISCO

(NY Jets 10…BEST BET)

BUFFALO 1 Miami

(BUFFALO pk Miami…No Play)

DENVER 9 Kansas City

(DENVER 8…No Play)

ARIZONA 14 ST Louis

(ARIZONA 18…No Play)

PITTSBURGH 3 Dallas

(PITTSBURGH 5…No Play)

New England 4 SEATTLE

(New England 9 ½ …No Play)

MONDAY NIGHT

CAROLINA 3 Tampa Bay

(Tampa Bay 2…No Play)

As I said above, this is a tough week as far as quantity. So, taking the conservative approach, there are only two Best Bets this time around. The oddest thing is the Minnesota/Detroit line. I had a little trouble finding it. And can’t believe it’s only 9 ½ points. Logic dictates it should be 14. If you can get 9 ½ take it as your “absolute, four star, break open the piggy bank, mortgage the house lock of the week”.

If your bookmaker isn’t stoned and only offers 10 or more, you still have the New York Jets game to fall back on, though it doesn’t qualify as an “absolute, four star, break open the piggy bank, mortgage the house lock of the week”, but does make it a Best Bet. If that’s not good enough to satisfy you’re desire to gamble, Baltimore is the pick over Washington, Atlanta over New Orleans and Tampa Bay over Carolina. New England over Seattle is almost a Best Bet.

There are only two truly bettable games this weekend and that’s all I can recommend for the real plays. And that’s all I’ll count since it’s all about winning and not the action.

Labels: football betting, football picks

Another totally dominating week of football picks. The short and simple stats are 5 Best Bets, four wins and one loss. Total so far is an incredible, incomparable 18 and 5 that’s slightly better then 78% winners. And that’s vastly superior to any body else’s dismal performance.

Even better are my “absolute, four star, break open the piggy bank, mortgage the house locks”. A perfect 3 for 3. Last week, my pick was the Buffalo Bills and they crushed the Kansas City Chiefs. This week it was the Tennessee Titans who demolished the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day, and the Baltimore Ravens who massacred the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

In keeping with my now perfected selection methods I’ll wait until Tuesday to pick another batch of winners. Tonight’s game (Monday) points toward the Jacksonville Jaguars who hold a marginal edge over the Huston Texans. I’ll pass on tempting fate this week, but if history and patterns in my selection methods mean anything, The “Jags” are a very playable option.

Labels: football betting, football picks

I ended up 4-4 last week when I should have been, at the very least, 4-3 and if I would have followed my original advice, I could have been 5-2. Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Instead, I’m now 43-34-1 on the year. I should have passed on the Pittsburgh game like I said I was, and those twenty point spreads are ludicrous in the NFL. They may work for college, but when the big boys play it’s just nuts.

At this point in the season the lines tighten up so I need to loosen up my criteria. Besides, unless I start sweeping a bunch of days, my stats will hardly be impressive. Here goes:

JACKSONVILLE 10½ Carolina: This game is a lot closer to even then it is to this screwy line. Take the Panthers as BEST BET ONE!

Dallas 10 DETROIT: I have Dallas +8.5…PASS.

BUFFALO 7 Miami: I make the Bills –2.5. PASS.

PHILADELPHIA 3 N.Y Giants: I suppose the Eagles are getting points because it’s a home game. I make it even. PASS.

GREEN BAY 11 Oakland: That’s what I’d make it, more or less. Farve is too big a question this week, so PASS.

NEW ENGLAND 10½ Pittsburgh: I make it 9 ½ and can’ say I disappointed. This is another PASS.

TENNESSEE PK San Diego: Really? I make the Chargers +5 ½. I have to make this PASS.

CINCINNATI 8 St Louis: Bengals +6. Another PASS.

Tampa Bay 2½ HOUSTON: I make it Tampa +6.5. No big enough for a play. PASS.

SEATTLE 6½ Arizona: I make it Seattle –5 ½. PASS.

Minnesota 8 SAN FRANCISCO: I make the Vikings +13. PASS.

Cleveland 3½ N.Y JETS: Close enough for me to PASS.

DENVER 6½ Kansas City: Too close. PASS.

Indianapolis 9½ BALTIMORE: I make Indy +16 and my SECOND BEST BET.

Monday Night

New Orleans 4 ATLANTA: I make the Saints 10 ½ point favorites. BEST BET THREE.

Only three BEST BETS so I have to stretch myself. Here goes, I’m adding the Chargers and Tampa Bay to my picks four a FIVE BEST BET TOTAL.

Labels: football betting, football picks

I’m 39-30-1 and denied my first perfect week when the Steelers and Dolphins put on the most inept display of “professional football” in recent history. Surprisingly both teams are favored this week and they are automatic “hunch bets” for me (i.e. bet against them). Here’s this weeks lines and picks:

ST. LOUIS 3 Atlanta: I make it this line just the opposite. The Rams are may have found themselves, but my numbers say the Falcons by three. I can’t believe this myself, but Atlanta is BEST BET ONE!

WASHINGTON 6 Buffalo: I make this line the same. Thank God because I wouldn’t touch this game. The Redskins have that unknown “emotional” factor, and the Bills are starting their better quarterback and may have a running game. Pass.

MINNESOTA 3½ Detroit: I have this as an even game. The 3 ½ isn’t big enough to make it bettable so this is a PASS.

TENNESSEE 4 Houston: I make it Titans –1. Only a slight edge so it’s a PASS.

INDIANAPOLIS 7 Jacksonville: I make it Colts –8 and too close to call. PASS.

MIAMI 1 New York Jets: The two worst (currently) teams in the NFL face off and who knows? Miami fought the “mighty” Steelers to a standstill, and the Jets’ quarterback is questionable. But the Jets did beat the Steelers and since I have a lack of picks this week I’m taking New York as BEST BET TWO.

San Diego 5½ KANSAS CITY: I make it Chargers –3. I hate these goofy 5 ½ point lines. Where the hell do they come from? Again, due to lack of solid plays I’m taking the Chiefs as BEST BET THREE.

PHILADELPHIA 3 Seattle: The Eagles put on quite the show against New England, but I have the line Seattle –6. The Seahawks are BEST BET FOUR.

CAROLINA 2½ San Francisco: I have to agree with this line, so it’s a PASS.

NEW ORLEANS 3 Tampa Bay: I make this Tampa Bay +4 and the Bucs’ are BEST BET FIVE.

ARIZONA PK Cleveland: Line looks right to me. PASS.

Denver 3½ OAKLAND: I have the Raiders +2 and that makes them BEST BET SIX.

New York Giants 2 CHICAGO: I have this game even and that makes it a PASS.

PITTSBURGH 7½ Cincinnati: I have the Steelers +11. This game should be a pass, but it’s close enough that I’ll go against them since they barely beat Miami and lost to the Jets. The Bengals are BEST BET SEVEN.

Monday Night

New England 20 BALTIMORE: I make the Patriots a 30-point favorite. After mocking last week’s 24-point line against the Eagles you’d think I’d be leaning toward the Ravens. Not so. Take the Pats as BEST BET EIGHT.

I started out thinking the Miami and Pittsburgh games would be passes, but I can’t resist. This turns out to be the most games I’ve ever taken in one week. I contemplated taking those two and Monday night off my recommendations but what the hell, I’m due for a big week.

Labels: football betting, football picks

I’ll recap my picks from last week tomorrow or Saturday. It’s Thanksgiving so I’m going to squeeze my plays in here today. The only thing I have to say about last Sunday (for now) is that I wasn’t kidding when I made the Patriots over the Bills as the BEST BET OF THE YEAR!

Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving and here are my lines versus the official line:

Green Bay 3½ DETROIT: I make it I make it Green Bay 10 over Detroit. The Lions usually show up for the big Thanksgiving Day game, but I’m thinking the Packers are the only team that can give the Patriots a game in the Super Bowel. It may not even be that close.

DALLAS 14 N.Y Jets: I figure Dallas is only 12 ½ points better. A close call, but the Jets are pumped after beating the Steelers and the Cowboys are ultimately at the mercy of their head coach. Close call, but if you want to play take the Jets.

Indianapolis 11½ ATLANTA: The Colts by 19 as I see it. Why is it the Jets are getting 14 and the Falcons only get 11 ½? I’m either dead-wrong or dead-right. The way I see it, the Colts are still the Colts and the Falcons are still hopeless.

Okay, Green Bay and Indianapolis are BEST BETS, and Dallas is a maybe. If you’re a wimp, take a teaser with the three teams or just take a parlay with the Packers and the Colts.

Happy Thanksgiving!!!!

Labels: football betting, football picks

No sooner do I post my season record then I have my FIRST losing week! 2-4, dragging me down to 34-26-1. I’m down to 57%, maybe this week….

JACKSONVILLE 3 San Diego: I like the Chargers by a point but who knows, maybe they won’t get six interceptions this week. Pass

INDIANAPOLIS 14½ Kansas City: Manning may have figured who he’s supposed to throw to this week so I make this line pretty fair. Pass

MINNESOTA 5½ Oakland: The Vikings are +2, making this a pass.

Cleveland 3 BALTIMORE: This line is dead on as far as I concerned. Pass.

Pittsburgh 9 N.Y JETS: The Steelers bounce back from last week’s embarrassment and the Jets, well, they’re still the Jets. BEST BET ONE.

Tampa Bay 3 ATLANTA: I can’t believe this line. It’s one of those lines that makes me suspicious, but I make the Bucs BEST BET TWO.

CINCINNATI 3 Arizona: Looks about right, pass.

PHILADELPHIA 10 Miami: Perfect line, pass.

New England 15 BUFFALO: When’s the last time you saw a 15 point line? Guess they didn’t want to make the more realistic 21. New England shows no mercy, and the Bills have not only conceded this game by going with the aptly named Lossman, but they have no running game. The Patriots will score at will and will have a lot of chances to do so. The Bills may get a field goal and a special teams score. By the middle of the second quarter the Pats will have this covered and be coasting from there. I’m a lot more “wordy” on this one but I feel the need to be since I’m always reluctant to pick a Bills game, but this may be the best bet of all time. BEST BET THREE.

DALLAS 11 Washington: Looks about right. Pass.

New Orleans PK HOUSTON: Slight edge to the Saints. Pass

GREEN BAY 10 Carolina: Like the Packers here, but not enough. Pass.

N.Y Giants 2½ DETROIT: Pretty much an even game. Pass.

ST Louis 3 SAN FRANCISCO: The Rams are on a roll with their first win, and the 9’ers looked pathetic against Seattle last week. I make this game even, but, due to lack of selections and my “gut” feeling, I’m making St. Louis BEST BET FOUR!

SEATTLE 5 Chicago: I want very much to take Chicago here, but my numbers say Seattle. It’s teams like this that make me hesitate, but the Seahawks have the talent to win this. Caution! I’m going, once again, with my gut. I’m making the Bears BEST BET FIVE!

Monday Night

DENVER 2½ Tennessee: I’m hot on Monday’s so the Titans are BEST BET SIX.

I actually only came up with four best bets off my numbers, but the other two are probably the Best of the best so I’m looking forward to 6-0. And I’m not kidding when I make New England one of the best bets of the year.

Labels: football betting, football picks

Last week I was 3-2 (another winning edge, but nothing to gloat about) so I guess it’s about time I get a little more daring. Let’s get to it:

Washington 3½ NEW YORK JETS: Tempted as I am to take Washington, I’m calling this a pass.


KANSAS CITY 2 Green Bay: I can’t argue with success. The Packers are hot and I see them winning here. BEST BET ONE.

TAMPA BAY 3½ Arizona: This line looks about right to me. That makes it a close call and a pass, but I like the Bucs.

TENNESSEE 4½ Carolina: This line is one of those goofy spreads. Why not 3 ½? Could it be they want you to think twice about taking the Titans? My own calculations make this line just about right, but my “gut” says take the Titans for BEST BET TWO.

ATLANTA 3 San Francisco: I never thought I’d see the Falcons favored over anyone, but here it is. And here I am agreeing with it! Pass.

NEW ORLEANS 3½ Jacksonville: I liked New Orleans when the season started but they’re too unpredictable. Same for the Jags. I have to pass this one, too.

DETROIT 3 Denver: The NFL is made up of the Pats, the Colts, and everybody else. The Lions have become a force to be reckoned with among the mediocre. I have them as a –6, not good enough for a bet. Pass.

Cincinnati 1 BUFFALO: The Bills are hot, the Bengals are underachieving. It is this close a call; I’m going to pass.

San Diego 7 MINNESOTA: Maybe the Chargers have found themselves. Maybe not. I wouldn’t make them more then a touchdown over the Vikings. Pass.

CLEVELAND 2 Seattle: Makes no sense to me. Then again, I think the Seahawks are being victimized more by coaching then by their opponents. But Cleveland? The Seahawks win this one. BEST BET THREE!

New England 5 INDIANAPOLIS: The perfect line for the best game of the year? Maybe so, but the Pats aren’t taking any prisoners and they’re steamrolling everyone. This game could be a blow out either way and I’m going with the Patriots. BEST BET FOUR.

OAKLAND 3 Houston: Two teams I have a hard time with. Too close to call. Pass.


Dallas 3 PHILADELPHIA: I have no respect for Wade Phillips, but I respect the Cowboys. I have even less respect for the Eagles. BEST BET FIVE is Dallas.



PITTSBURGH 9 Baltimore: this line looks fair. Baltimore is struggling, and the Steelers have something to prove and need to get rolling. They can cover and, since my Monday record has been pretty good why not make the Steelers BEST BET SIX?


I anticipated a leaner day when it comes to best bets, and I’m a little surprised I came up with six. Strictly speaking the TENNESSEE –Carolina game is a “gut” call, but there’s a lot of thinks to like about it from a betting perspective. I’m sticking with them all.

Labels: football betting, football picks

The big “break through” week hasn’t happened yet. I ended up 3-3 since I failed to follow my own consul and picked the Ravens over the Bills. I could always add that I did like the Colts for Monday night, but I didn’t think the play was strong enough. But, so far, I haven’t had a losing week (if you don’t count the “vig”). Here go this week’s selections:


Cleveland 3 ST. LOUIS: I like Cleveland by only slightly more. Have to pass.


CHICAGO 5 Detroit: Another close one, I’m leaning toward the Bears, but it’s another pass.

Indianapolis 6½ CAROLINA: I’m always uncomfortable with the Colts, but I make them a two-touchdown pick so they become BEST BET ONE.


New York Giants 9½ MIAMI: This is a close call for me; I make the Giants a 16 ½ point favorite, which gives them enough of an edge to BEST BET TWO.


TENNESSEE 7 Oakland: This line looks about right so this game is a pass.

Philadelphia 1 MINNESOTA: Too close. Pass.

Pittsburgh 3½ CINCINNATI: The Steelers let me down last week, but I like them big here. The Steelers are BEST BET THREE.

NEW YORK JETS 3 Buffalo: My numbers say this game is even, and my experience tells me to pass it no matter what.

SAN DIEGO 9½ Houston: I figure this game to be closer. A lot closer. Huston is BEST BET FOUR.

TAMPA BAY 4 Jacksonville: I’m leaning toward Jacksonville, but not strong enough making this game a pass.

New Orleans 2½ SAN FRANCISCO: This line looks right, pass.

NEW ENGLAND 16 Washington: About what I’d make this game. Pass.



MONDAY NIGHT

DENVER 3 Green Bay: I see this game as completely backward. The Packers win big. BEST BET FIVE.

Labels: football betting, football picks

Last week I was once again on the winning side going 3-2 on my BEST BETS and in addition I called Monday Night right. But I can only take credit for the 3-2. I’ve got six BEST BETS today, and Seahawka game is the optional bet for me. If I’m up, I’ll take ‘em, if I’m down, I’ll look for them to bail me out.



WASHINGTON 8½ Arizona: I make it an eight point game for Washington. Too close to call so it’s a PASS.

NEW ORLEANS 8½ Atlanta: I expected a bigger line after the performance of both teams last week. Lines being what they are, Atlanta may cover this. My numbers say they can win, so I’m making the Falcons my FIRST BEST BET.

Baltimore 3 BUFFALO: If this was any other team, I’d make the Ravens a best bet based on my numbers with no hesitation, but I have an awful track record picking Bills’ games. Keep that in mid when I make Baltimore my SECOND BEST BET.

DALLAS 9½ Minnesota: I like this line. That’s about what I make this game…PASS.

New England 16 MIAMI: The best team in the league against possibly the worst team in the league. No reason to believe the Patriots will be showing no mercy, and the books can’t afford to make the line any bigger though they could probably double it and New England would still cover. THIRD BEST BET.

N.Y GIANTS 9 San Francisco: I hate nine point lines. I make the Giants a ten point favorite so this game is a PASS.

DETROIT 2 Tampa Bay: This line is way too close. And it’s going the wrong way. Tampa wins this big for my FOURTH BEST BET.

Tennessee 1 HOUSTON: Two teams that I hate trying to rate, but I make the Titans only slightly better then the line so I can say “PASS”.

OAKLAND 2½ Kansas City: I make this game even so I have to give it a PASS.

CINCINNATI 6 N.Y Jets: The Bengals should win, but it may be closer so this game gets a PASS.

PHILADELPHIA 6 Chicago: I like the Eagles by eight so this is a pass. This is one case where I think the numbers lie, so I’d take Philadelphia for the action, but recommend it as a PASS.

SEATTLE 8½ St Louis: The numbers say the Seahawks win by twice as much making them my FIFTH BEST BET. I can argue with my own numbers and in this case I do. Since this is a late game, I’d only take it if I’m ahead.

Pittsburgh 3½ DENVER: Another one of those out-of-whack lines. The Steelers should cover this with ease for the SIXTH BEST BET.


MONDAY NIGHT

Indianapolis 3 JACKSONVILLE: Monday’s have been good to me the last two weeks in a row, but I can only make the Colts slightly better so this game gets a pass.

Labels: football betting, football picks

Last week ended up even thanks to a desperate Monday night pick. Five Best Bets this week and Monday may be a bonus or another desperate shot. See how things go.

Cincinnati 3 KANSAS CITY: Close game, but the Chiefs have a slight edge here, but not big enough for a bet.

JACKSONVILLE 6½ Houston: Another close one with the Huston having a slight edge against the line, but it’s a pass.

CLEVELAND 4½ Miami: I have Cleveland by three. Too small of an edge for a play.

CHICAGO 5 Minnesota: The Vikings should not only cover, but win this out right. BEST BET ONE.

Philadelphia 3½ NEW YORK JETS: I can’t figure out the Eagles, but the numbers say they’re a lot better then the Jets. Good enough to cover this line. BEST BET TWO.

BALTIMORE 9 St. Louis: This line is right on. Pass.

TAMPA BAY 3 Tennessee: Too close to call…pass.

GREEN BAY 3 Washington: Very close game. The Redskins can win this, but I’m going to pass.

ARIZONA 4½ Carolina: An even game if ever there was one. That’s why the line is a goofy 4 ½. I’m leaning toward Arizona but have to call this a pass.

New England 5 DALLAS: The biggest game of the year so far. The Pats are giving five points to a team that squeaked by the Bills? The books are taking no chances here. Dallas at home getting points insures a lot of money on them. The Pats can give them twice as many and still cover…BEST BET THREE.

SAN DIEGO 10 Oakland: The Chargers may be coming to life, but I make this game even. Oakland’s the play and BEST BET FOUR.

SEATTLE 6½ New Orleans: The Seahawks are another underachiever, but then again, so are the Saints. The numbers say Seattle’s BEST BET FIVE.

MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y Giants 3½ ATLANTA: Giants win, but the lines too close. If I’m craving action on Monday and I’m ahead or need a game to bail myself out (like last week) I’d take the Giants.

Labels: football betting, football picks

Close, but I ended up on the losing side. I’m only down a game and Monday night is a chance to get even.

Here’s a recap:

NEW ORLEANS 3 Carolina: Carolina wins out right and big. BEST BET ONE. This was good start with Carolina covering the spread with a win. (+1)

TENNESSEE 8 Atlanta: Eight points seems big, but I like the Titans by two touchdowns. Give the 8 and still cover. BEST BET TWO. Eight points was big. Missed it by a point. (Even)

HOUSTON 5½ Miami: I make Huston a much bigger choice. I hate goofy lines like 5 ½ but the numbers say the Texans, big! BEST BET THREE. Did I say “goofy” line? Huston failed to cover; I should have taken the hint. (-1)

NEW ENGLAND 16½ Cleveland: This line is huge, but I like the Pats to cover it easily. Big lines always make me nervous. Then again, that’s way they make these lines. Pats are BEST BET FOUR. Huge line and they won by 17. Doesn’t get any closer, but it is a win. (Even)

Arizona 3 ST. LOUIS: I don’t like picking either of these teams and I suppose nobody else does ether. But my numbers say Arizona is BEST BET FIVE. Ended up being a push. You can’t factor in injuries. (Even)

GREEN BAY 3 Chicago: I hate to look like I’m jumping on the Packers bandwagon, but all the numbers say they cover this big. BEST BET SIX. The pack was looking good for the first half, but they not only failed to cover, but they lost outright. (-1)

That makes me 2-3-1 for the day and leaves me no choice but to take the Bills tonight to even things out. I have a hard figuring the Bills. They’re not that bad and the new guy at quarterback looked pretty good last week against the Jets. That, and the fact that the 10-point line just doesn’t sound right. But, my numbers say Cowboys big! Logic says the Cowboys should be easy winners. Then Why only the ten points? It's the logical of illogic as I make the Bills a BEST BET!

Labels: football betting, football picks

By the way, I was 6-2 last week, or 6-3 if you took my reluctant play on the Steelers. Still, that's a plus three last week. I'll run the numbers so far in a day or so.


NEW ORLEANS 3 Carolina: Carolina wins out right and big. BEST BET ONE.

Jacksonville 2½ KANSAS: The Jags should cover, but a little too close for a play.

WASHINGTON 3½ Detroit: Another line that looks about right, pass.

TENNESSEE 8 Atlanta: Eight points seems big, but I like the Titans by two touchdowns. Give the 8 and still cover. BEST BET TWO.

HOUSTON 5½ Miami: I make Huston a much bigger choice. I hate goofy lines like 5 ½ but the numbers say the Texans, big! BEST BET THREE.

PITTSBURGH 6 Seattle: I make the Steelers 7 ½ point favorites. Too close. Pass.

NEW ENGLAND 16½ Cleveland: This line is huge, but I like the Pats to cover it easily. Big lines always make me nervous. Then again, that’s way they make these lines. Pats are BEST BET FOUR.

Arizona 3 ST. LOUIS: I don’t like picking either of these teams and I suppose nobody else does ether. But my numbers say Arizona is BEST BET FIVE.

NEW YORK GIANTS 3½ New York Jets: I like the Giants, but the line’s too close. Pass.

INDIANAPOLIS 10 Tampa Bay: Line is twice as big as I’d make. My second ‘dog’ pick of the day. But, I’d say pass.

DENVER Pk San Diego: I’m picking Denver, but not strong enough. Pass.

Baltimore 3½ SAN FRANCISCO: Too close. Ravens should cover, but this is a pass.

GREEN BAY 3 Chicago: I hate to look like I’m jumping on the Packers bandwagon, but all the numbers say they cover this big. BEST BET SIX.

That’s six BEST BETS and I’m slightly above .500 so far. This could be a breakthrough week, but I’ve said that before. Monday night is a pass game, but here are the numbers (I refuse to pick a Bill’s game):

Dallas 10 BUFFALO: I make the line Even with their new quarterback, I see the Bills getting blown out. With the numbers I get for this game I’d make the Cowboys a BEST BET against any other team. Hell, if I’m 4-2 or better after Sunday, I’ll take ‘em.

Labels: football betting, football picks