I haven’t done picks in a while for two reasons: I just didn’t have the time or inclination to do them on a regular basis, and some of the lines were so out of whack that they made no sense to me. I just didn’t get it. After informally following the last 15 weeks I’ve come to this conclusion. The odds makers are as mediocre as the teams they’re attempting to decipher. Scanning this week’s games the lines are so nonsensical and ineptly created that this is going to be a breeze. Despite the common sense approach to the playoffs nobody should be surprised. Every single team in the playoffs approaches the final games with the exact same attitude. Most aren’t as blatant about it. And if anybody thinks the lousy teams are playing with any integrity this time of year, well they know little about professional sports. That being said, the whole “intangible” of will and desire has been included in my calculations (i.e. “it ain’t a factor”). Every team plays to its level, every time. So that being said, here’s the final week’s of regular season games:
BUFFALO 8½ Indianapolis: They stayed away from this one for a while. Will the Colts actually try to win this one? What about the weather? What is everybody smoking? The Buffalo Bills are favored over the Indianapolis Colts?! Why, because Payton Manning isn’t playing? Buffalo doesn’t even have a quarterback! In order for Buffalo to win by 8 ½ they’d have to score at least one touchdown while holding the Colts scoreless. That’s not even a remote possibility. Under ‘normal” circumstances Indianapolis should be a 14 ½ point favorite. I just don’t see a total reversal here. Indianapolis is a great BET!!!
CLEVELAND 1½ Jacksonville: Nobody really cares but it is a stunning line. Picking the Browns under any circumstances is a stretch. I make Jacksonville 3 ½ point favorite. Not quite good enough for a best bet. There are plenty of other games to choose from.
DALLAS 3 Philadelphia: I hate Dallas. And I have no love for the Eagles. It’s appropriate that the two most overrated teams in the league are meeting this weekend. It’ll probably be a one-sided affair. The Eagles should be a two point favorite and, if both teams play down to their potential, Philadelphia should win by that many touchdowns. Whatever happens here, it won’t be a decided by a field goal. Another marginal play.
Chicago 3 DETROIT: No one’s more disappointed in the Bears this year then me. I know Cutler is crazy, but he is a good quarterback. And Detroit is Detroit. This is easily Chicago 10 DETROIT. One of those insignificant gems that offer a BEST BET opportunity, take the Bears.
HOUSTON 8 New England: Yes, that’s right. It certainly looks like a misprint since the line should be the exact opposite. I know all the “psychology” (and possibly drugs) that went in to concocting this line. Unless I missed the press conference when the Pat’s announced they weren’t even going to show up for the game, something’s really wrong here. Jump on it! New England’s another BEST BET!
Pittsburgh 3 MIAMI: Initially this one amazed me. But upon further review, I tend to agree. It’s hard to relegate the Steelers’s to the same mediocrity as the Dolphins but I can’t make a case for them though my gut says they’ll easily cover the three points. Pass.
MINNESOTA 9 NY Giants: Nothing to say about this one. I have to agree and this a pass.
NY JETS 10 Cincinnati: I reluctantly make the Jets a 1 ½ point favorite. I can’t imagine them even winning this but my numbers say they can. Just not by 10 points. That gives the Bengals an 8 ½ point edge and makes them a BEST BET.
San Francisco 8 ST LOUIS: Why not? San Francisco has turned out to be one of the year’s big disappointments and St. Louis hasn’t surprised any one other the Lion’s (the only team they managed to beat). Long story short, San Francisco should win by twice as much and get my vote as another BEST BET.
Atlanta 2 TAMPABAY: Another line I just don’t get. It should be Atlanta 10 TAMPA BAY and have no idea why anybody thinks this will be close. Atlanta is a BEST BET.
ARIZONA 3½ Green Bay: I make it Green Bay 4 ARIZONA. I have to admit, the Cardinals have been off my radar. But here they are, in the playoffs. That may have something to do with the teams they’ve been playing. Anyway, the Packers look like a BEST BET here.
DENVER 11 Kansas City: Can’t argue with this line. Pass.
Baltimore 10½ OAKLAND: That’s a big number. I make it even bigger. The Ravens by at least nine more and this games is one of the reasons I saw opportunity this week. If they can’t stomp the hapless Raiders they’re not going to win. That makes Baltimore a BEST BET.
SAN DIEGO 3½ Washington: The odds makers are about 10 points light on this one. The Chargers will demolish the Redskins and this is just another one of those games that got me back here. Chargers are a BEST BET!
Tennessee 4 SEATTLE: I suppose. That’s what I make it. There’s plenty of other action. Pass.
Nine Best Bets is quite a lot, I know. Some of the lines are based on certain assumptions that certain teams will rollover. Part of it is that all of the sudden, teams that were lousy during the year will suddenly spring to life with their last gasp at the play-offs. Some are assumed to have some kind of “pride” that will some how make a difference in the last week.
Unless you have some serious inside information using that as a factor is plain absurd. Take my home team, the Buffalo Bills. I really don’t know if Manning and the rest are starting. What I do know is that their very best, the Bills are totally inept at finding the end zone. They can’t stop a running game under any circumstances. Even against the Colts’ entire second string it would an uphill battle for them. And a group of second-stringers desiring to show their pride and talent may make it an even game at best for Buffalo.
No, I’m not trying to taint my numbers with supposition. Feel free to discard any bet because some of the nine picks here amount to little more then pre-season games to you. I just think that’s the way to approach this final week.
