NFL Picks

Last week was a bunch of bad betting opportunities and it showed. I never did find out if the line I had for Minnesota and Detroit was legit so I can’t really claim defeat. The back up bet, the New York Jets humiliated themselves by not only losing to the San Francisco 49’ers, but sunk even lower by losing by 10 points. My Best Bets are now 18 and 6 (for a still astonishing 75% winners). This week holds much more promise:

CHICAGO 3 New Orleans

(New Orleans 1…No Play)

SUNDAY

Green Bay Packers 2 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

(Green Bay Packers 5 ½ …No Play)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 17 Detroit Lions

(INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 18…No Play)

Washington Redskins 7 CINCINNATI BENGALS

(Washington Redskins 12 ½ …No Play)

ATLANTA FALCONS 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 … No Play)

MIAMI DOLPHINS 6 San Francisco 49ers

(MIAMI DOLPHINS 4 …No Play)

Seattle Seahawks 3 ST LOUIS RAMS

(Seattle Seahawks 8 ½…No Play)

NEW YORK JETS 7 Buffalo Bills

(NEW YORK JETS 4 ½…No Play)

Tennessee Titans 3 HOUSTON TEXANS

(Tennessee Titans 13 …BEST BET)

BALTIMORE RAVENS 1 Pittsburgh Steelers

(BALTIMORE RAVENS 1…No Play)

CAROLINA PANTHERS 7 Denver Broncos

(CAROLINA PANTHERS 6 ½ …No Play)

San Diego Chargers 5 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

(San Diego Chargers 13 … BEST BET)

ARIZONA CARDINALS 3 Minnesota Vikings

(ARIZONA CARDINALS 1 ½ …No Play)

New England Patriots 7 OAKLAND RAIDERS

(New England Patriots 11 …No Play)

DALLAS COWBOYS 3 New York Giants

(New York Giants 8 …BEST BET)

MONDAY NIGHT

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 14 Cleveland Browns

(PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 9 ½…No Play)

Three BEST BETS and an “absolute, four star, break open the piggy bank, mortgage the house lock of the week” is one of them. The New York Giants will not only cover the spread, but will win the game out right. The other two BEST BETS are highlighted and I’m pretty sure you can pick them out yourself. All three games are very playable.

Here's a note that may help you cash in big time down the road: The Baltimore Ravens trail the Pittsburgh Steelers by a single game for the division lead. This Sunday could very well have them both tied. I watched the Ravens dominate Washington Sunday night and they had all the signs of a team reaching it's peak (if there is such a thing). If you can make an advanced bet on them for winning the AFC, take it now (before they beat the Steelers) and a modest bet on them to win the Super Bowel. I don't know what the odds are, but they have to be pretty decent.

When you’re firmly established as the best football handicapper in the world, word spreads and the odds makers get nervous. Proof positive? Not coincidentally, the “official” lines match my lines with only a few scant exceptions and only two overtly useful one. The marginal differences are most likely due to bettor patterns, road versus home and other irrelevant handicapping factors, but not irrelevant to line making. A more thorough analysis will follow, but first, take note of the uncanny accuracy of the line making:

THURSDAY

(I know it’s too late to post this but it wasn’t playable and I detest the whole concept of Thursday night games solely to benefit the NFL network. As far as I’m concerned, unless it’s Thanksgiving, Thursday night football is a travesty).

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 10 Oakland Raiders

(SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 8 ½…No Play)

SUNDAY

(The real games)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 14 Cincinnati Bengals

(INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 14…No play)

CHICAGO BEARS 7 Jacksonville Jaguars

(CHICAGO BEARS 4 ½ …No Play)

GREEN BAY PACKERS 6 Houston Texans

(GREEN BAY PACKERS 5 … No Play)

TENNESSEE 14 Cleveland

(TENNESSEE 13 ½ …No Play)

Minnesota 9 ½ DETROIT

(Minnesota 17 ½ …BEST BET)

(BALTIMORE 5 Washington

(BALTIMORE 9 ½ …No Play)

NY GIANTS 7 Philadelphia

(NY GIANTS 6…No Play)

NEW ORLEANS 3 Atlanta

(Atlanta 1 ½ …No Play)

NY Jets 3 SAN FRANCISCO

(NY Jets 10…BEST BET)

BUFFALO 1 Miami

(BUFFALO pk Miami…No Play)

DENVER 9 Kansas City

(DENVER 8…No Play)

ARIZONA 14 ST Louis

(ARIZONA 18…No Play)

PITTSBURGH 3 Dallas

(PITTSBURGH 5…No Play)

New England 4 SEATTLE

(New England 9 ½ …No Play)

MONDAY NIGHT

CAROLINA 3 Tampa Bay

(Tampa Bay 2…No Play)

As I said above, this is a tough week as far as quantity. So, taking the conservative approach, there are only two Best Bets this time around. The oddest thing is the Minnesota/Detroit line. I had a little trouble finding it. And can’t believe it’s only 9 ½ points. Logic dictates it should be 14. If you can get 9 ½ take it as your “absolute, four star, break open the piggy bank, mortgage the house lock of the week”.

If your bookmaker isn’t stoned and only offers 10 or more, you still have the New York Jets game to fall back on, though it doesn’t qualify as an “absolute, four star, break open the piggy bank, mortgage the house lock of the week”, but does make it a Best Bet. If that’s not good enough to satisfy you’re desire to gamble, Baltimore is the pick over Washington, Atlanta over New Orleans and Tampa Bay over Carolina. New England over Seattle is almost a Best Bet.

There are only two truly bettable games this weekend and that’s all I can recommend for the real plays. And that’s all I’ll count since it’s all about winning and not the action.

Labels: football betting, football picks

Another totally dominating week of football picks. The short and simple stats are 5 Best Bets, four wins and one loss. Total so far is an incredible, incomparable 18 and 5 that’s slightly better then 78% winners. And that’s vastly superior to any body else’s dismal performance.

Even better are my “absolute, four star, break open the piggy bank, mortgage the house locks”. A perfect 3 for 3. Last week, my pick was the Buffalo Bills and they crushed the Kansas City Chiefs. This week it was the Tennessee Titans who demolished the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day, and the Baltimore Ravens who massacred the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

In keeping with my now perfected selection methods I’ll wait until Tuesday to pick another batch of winners. Tonight’s game (Monday) points toward the Jacksonville Jaguars who hold a marginal edge over the Huston Texans. I’ll pass on tempting fate this week, but if history and patterns in my selection methods mean anything, The “Jags” are a very playable option.

Labels: football betting, football picks