NFL Picks
Saturday, October 27, 2007
WEEK EIGHT 2007
The big “break through” week hasn’t happened yet. I ended up 3-3 since I failed to follow my own consul and picked the Ravens over the Bills. I could always add that I did like the Colts for Monday night, but I didn’t think the play was strong enough. But, so far, I haven’t had a losing week (if you don’t count the “vig”). Here go this week’s selections:
Cleveland 3 ST. LOUIS: I like Cleveland by only slightly more. Have to pass.
CHICAGO 5 Detroit: Another close one, I’m leaning toward the Bears, but it’s another pass.
Indianapolis 6½ CAROLINA: I’m always uncomfortable with the Colts, but I make them a two-touchdown pick so they become BEST BET ONE.
New York Giants 9½ MIAMI: This is a close call for me; I make the Giants a 16 ½ point favorite, which gives them enough of an edge to BEST BET TWO.
TENNESSEE 7 Oakland: This line looks about right so this game is a pass.
Philadelphia 1 MINNESOTA: Too close. Pass.
Pittsburgh 3½ CINCINNATI: The Steelers let me down last week, but I like them big here. The Steelers are BEST BET THREE.
NEW YORK JETS 3 Buffalo: My numbers say this game is even, and my experience tells me to pass it no matter what.
SAN DIEGO 9½ Houston: I figure this game to be closer. A lot closer. Huston is BEST BET FOUR.
TAMPA BAY 4 Jacksonville: I’m leaning toward Jacksonville, but not strong enough making this game a pass.
New Orleans 2½ SAN FRANCISCO: This line looks right, pass.
NEW ENGLAND 16 Washington: About what I’d make this game. Pass.
MONDAY NIGHT
DENVER 3 Green Bay: I see this game as completely backward. The Packers win big. BEST BET FIVE.
Cleveland 3 ST. LOUIS: I like Cleveland by only slightly more. Have to pass.
CHICAGO 5 Detroit: Another close one, I’m leaning toward the Bears, but it’s another pass.
Indianapolis 6½ CAROLINA: I’m always uncomfortable with the Colts, but I make them a two-touchdown pick so they become BEST BET ONE.
New York Giants 9½ MIAMI: This is a close call for me; I make the Giants a 16 ½ point favorite, which gives them enough of an edge to BEST BET TWO.
TENNESSEE 7 Oakland: This line looks about right so this game is a pass.
Philadelphia 1 MINNESOTA: Too close. Pass.
Pittsburgh 3½ CINCINNATI: The Steelers let me down last week, but I like them big here. The Steelers are BEST BET THREE.
NEW YORK JETS 3 Buffalo: My numbers say this game is even, and my experience tells me to pass it no matter what.
SAN DIEGO 9½ Houston: I figure this game to be closer. A lot closer. Huston is BEST BET FOUR.
TAMPA BAY 4 Jacksonville: I’m leaning toward Jacksonville, but not strong enough making this game a pass.
New Orleans 2½ SAN FRANCISCO: This line looks right, pass.
NEW ENGLAND 16 Washington: About what I’d make this game. Pass.
MONDAY NIGHT
DENVER 3 Green Bay: I see this game as completely backward. The Packers win big. BEST BET FIVE.
Labels: football betting, football picks
Sunday, October 21, 2007
WEEK SEVEN 2007
Last week I was once again on the winning side going 3-2 on my BEST BETS and in addition I called Monday Night right. But I can only take credit for the 3-2. I’ve got six BEST BETS today, and Seahawka game is the optional bet for me. If I’m up, I’ll take ‘em, if I’m down, I’ll look for them to bail me out.
WASHINGTON 8½ Arizona: I make it an eight point game for Washington. Too close to call so it’s a PASS.
NEW ORLEANS 8½ Atlanta: I expected a bigger line after the performance of both teams last week. Lines being what they are, Atlanta may cover this. My numbers say they can win, so I’m making the Falcons my FIRST BEST BET.
Baltimore 3 BUFFALO: If this was any other team, I’d make the Ravens a best bet based on my numbers with no hesitation, but I have an awful track record picking Bills’ games. Keep that in mid when I make Baltimore my SECOND BEST BET.
DALLAS 9½ Minnesota: I like this line. That’s about what I make this game…PASS.
New England 16 MIAMI: The best team in the league against possibly the worst team in the league. No reason to believe the Patriots will be showing no mercy, and the books can’t afford to make the line any bigger though they could probably double it and New England would still cover. THIRD BEST BET.
N.Y GIANTS 9 San Francisco: I hate nine point lines. I make the Giants a ten point favorite so this game is a PASS.
DETROIT 2 Tampa Bay: This line is way too close. And it’s going the wrong way. Tampa wins this big for my FOURTH BEST BET.
Tennessee 1 HOUSTON: Two teams that I hate trying to rate, but I make the Titans only slightly better then the line so I can say “PASS”.
OAKLAND 2½ Kansas City: I make this game even so I have to give it a PASS.
CINCINNATI 6 N.Y Jets: The Bengals should win, but it may be closer so this game gets a PASS.
PHILADELPHIA 6 Chicago: I like the Eagles by eight so this is a pass. This is one case where I think the numbers lie, so I’d take Philadelphia for the action, but recommend it as a PASS.
SEATTLE 8½ St Louis: The numbers say the Seahawks win by twice as much making them my FIFTH BEST BET. I can argue with my own numbers and in this case I do. Since this is a late game, I’d only take it if I’m ahead.
Pittsburgh 3½ DENVER: Another one of those out-of-whack lines. The Steelers should cover this with ease for the SIXTH BEST BET.
MONDAY NIGHT
Indianapolis 3 JACKSONVILLE: Monday’s have been good to me the last two weeks in a row, but I can only make the Colts slightly better so this game gets a pass.
WASHINGTON 8½ Arizona: I make it an eight point game for Washington. Too close to call so it’s a PASS.
NEW ORLEANS 8½ Atlanta: I expected a bigger line after the performance of both teams last week. Lines being what they are, Atlanta may cover this. My numbers say they can win, so I’m making the Falcons my FIRST BEST BET.
Baltimore 3 BUFFALO: If this was any other team, I’d make the Ravens a best bet based on my numbers with no hesitation, but I have an awful track record picking Bills’ games. Keep that in mid when I make Baltimore my SECOND BEST BET.
DALLAS 9½ Minnesota: I like this line. That’s about what I make this game…PASS.
New England 16 MIAMI: The best team in the league against possibly the worst team in the league. No reason to believe the Patriots will be showing no mercy, and the books can’t afford to make the line any bigger though they could probably double it and New England would still cover. THIRD BEST BET.
N.Y GIANTS 9 San Francisco: I hate nine point lines. I make the Giants a ten point favorite so this game is a PASS.
DETROIT 2 Tampa Bay: This line is way too close. And it’s going the wrong way. Tampa wins this big for my FOURTH BEST BET.
Tennessee 1 HOUSTON: Two teams that I hate trying to rate, but I make the Titans only slightly better then the line so I can say “PASS”.
OAKLAND 2½ Kansas City: I make this game even so I have to give it a PASS.
CINCINNATI 6 N.Y Jets: The Bengals should win, but it may be closer so this game gets a PASS.
PHILADELPHIA 6 Chicago: I like the Eagles by eight so this is a pass. This is one case where I think the numbers lie, so I’d take Philadelphia for the action, but recommend it as a PASS.
SEATTLE 8½ St Louis: The numbers say the Seahawks win by twice as much making them my FIFTH BEST BET. I can argue with my own numbers and in this case I do. Since this is a late game, I’d only take it if I’m ahead.
Pittsburgh 3½ DENVER: Another one of those out-of-whack lines. The Steelers should cover this with ease for the SIXTH BEST BET.
MONDAY NIGHT
Indianapolis 3 JACKSONVILLE: Monday’s have been good to me the last two weeks in a row, but I can only make the Colts slightly better so this game gets a pass.
Labels: football betting, football picks
Sunday, October 14, 2007
WEEK SIX 2007
Last week ended up even thanks to a desperate Monday night pick. Five Best Bets this week and Monday may be a bonus or another desperate shot. See how things go.
Cincinnati 3 KANSAS CITY: Close game, but the Chiefs have a slight edge here, but not big enough for a bet.
JACKSONVILLE 6½ Houston: Another close one with the Huston having a slight edge against the line, but it’s a pass.
CLEVELAND 4½ Miami: I have Cleveland by three. Too small of an edge for a play.
CHICAGO 5 Minnesota: The Vikings should not only cover, but win this out right. BEST BET ONE.
Philadelphia 3½ NEW YORK JETS: I can’t figure out the Eagles, but the numbers say they’re a lot better then the Jets. Good enough to cover this line. BEST BET TWO.
BALTIMORE 9 St. Louis: This line is right on. Pass.
TAMPA BAY 3 Tennessee: Too close to call…pass.
GREEN BAY 3 Washington: Very close game. The Redskins can win this, but I’m going to pass.
ARIZONA 4½ Carolina: An even game if ever there was one. That’s why the line is a goofy 4 ½. I’m leaning toward Arizona but have to call this a pass.
New England 5 DALLAS: The biggest game of the year so far. The Pats are giving five points to a team that squeaked by the Bills? The books are taking no chances here. Dallas at home getting points insures a lot of money on them. The Pats can give them twice as many and still cover…BEST BET THREE.
SAN DIEGO 10 Oakland: The Chargers may be coming to life, but I make this game even. Oakland’s the play and BEST BET FOUR.
SEATTLE 6½ New Orleans: The Seahawks are another underachiever, but then again, so are the Saints. The numbers say Seattle’s BEST BET FIVE.
MONDAY NIGHT
N.Y Giants 3½ ATLANTA: Giants win, but the lines too close. If I’m craving action on Monday and I’m ahead or need a game to bail myself out (like last week) I’d take the Giants.
Cincinnati 3 KANSAS CITY: Close game, but the Chiefs have a slight edge here, but not big enough for a bet.
JACKSONVILLE 6½ Houston: Another close one with the Huston having a slight edge against the line, but it’s a pass.
CLEVELAND 4½ Miami: I have Cleveland by three. Too small of an edge for a play.
CHICAGO 5 Minnesota: The Vikings should not only cover, but win this out right. BEST BET ONE.
Philadelphia 3½ NEW YORK JETS: I can’t figure out the Eagles, but the numbers say they’re a lot better then the Jets. Good enough to cover this line. BEST BET TWO.
BALTIMORE 9 St. Louis: This line is right on. Pass.
TAMPA BAY 3 Tennessee: Too close to call…pass.
GREEN BAY 3 Washington: Very close game. The Redskins can win this, but I’m going to pass.
ARIZONA 4½ Carolina: An even game if ever there was one. That’s why the line is a goofy 4 ½. I’m leaning toward Arizona but have to call this a pass.
New England 5 DALLAS: The biggest game of the year so far. The Pats are giving five points to a team that squeaked by the Bills? The books are taking no chances here. Dallas at home getting points insures a lot of money on them. The Pats can give them twice as many and still cover…BEST BET THREE.
SAN DIEGO 10 Oakland: The Chargers may be coming to life, but I make this game even. Oakland’s the play and BEST BET FOUR.
SEATTLE 6½ New Orleans: The Seahawks are another underachiever, but then again, so are the Saints. The numbers say Seattle’s BEST BET FIVE.
MONDAY NIGHT
N.Y Giants 3½ ATLANTA: Giants win, but the lines too close. If I’m craving action on Monday and I’m ahead or need a game to bail myself out (like last week) I’d take the Giants.
Labels: football betting, football picks
Monday, October 08, 2007
Week Five 2007, Monday Night
Close, but I ended up on the losing side. I’m only down a game and Monday night is a chance to get even.
Here’s a recap:
NEW ORLEANS 3 Carolina: Carolina wins out right and big. BEST BET ONE. This was good start with Carolina covering the spread with a win. (+1)
TENNESSEE 8 Atlanta: Eight points seems big, but I like the Titans by two touchdowns. Give the 8 and still cover. BEST BET TWO. Eight points was big. Missed it by a point. (Even)
HOUSTON 5½ Miami: I make Huston a much bigger choice. I hate goofy lines like 5 ½ but the numbers say the Texans, big! BEST BET THREE. Did I say “goofy” line? Huston failed to cover; I should have taken the hint. (-1)
NEW ENGLAND 16½ Cleveland: This line is huge, but I like the Pats to cover it easily. Big lines always make me nervous. Then again, that’s way they make these lines. Pats are BEST BET FOUR. Huge line and they won by 17. Doesn’t get any closer, but it is a win. (Even)
Arizona 3 ST. LOUIS: I don’t like picking either of these teams and I suppose nobody else does ether. But my numbers say Arizona is BEST BET FIVE. Ended up being a push. You can’t factor in injuries. (Even)
GREEN BAY 3 Chicago: I hate to look like I’m jumping on the Packers bandwagon, but all the numbers say they cover this big. BEST BET SIX. The pack was looking good for the first half, but they not only failed to cover, but they lost outright. (-1)
That makes me 2-3-1 for the day and leaves me no choice but to take the Bills tonight to even things out. I have a hard figuring the Bills. They’re not that bad and the new guy at quarterback looked pretty good last week against the Jets. That, and the fact that the 10-point line just doesn’t sound right. But, my numbers say Cowboys big! Logic says the Cowboys should be easy winners. Then Why only the ten points? It's the logical of illogic as I make the Bills a BEST BET!
Here’s a recap:
NEW ORLEANS 3 Carolina: Carolina wins out right and big. BEST BET ONE. This was good start with Carolina covering the spread with a win. (+1)
TENNESSEE 8 Atlanta: Eight points seems big, but I like the Titans by two touchdowns. Give the 8 and still cover. BEST BET TWO. Eight points was big. Missed it by a point. (Even)
HOUSTON 5½ Miami: I make Huston a much bigger choice. I hate goofy lines like 5 ½ but the numbers say the Texans, big! BEST BET THREE. Did I say “goofy” line? Huston failed to cover; I should have taken the hint. (-1)
NEW ENGLAND 16½ Cleveland: This line is huge, but I like the Pats to cover it easily. Big lines always make me nervous. Then again, that’s way they make these lines. Pats are BEST BET FOUR. Huge line and they won by 17. Doesn’t get any closer, but it is a win. (Even)
Arizona 3 ST. LOUIS: I don’t like picking either of these teams and I suppose nobody else does ether. But my numbers say Arizona is BEST BET FIVE. Ended up being a push. You can’t factor in injuries. (Even)
GREEN BAY 3 Chicago: I hate to look like I’m jumping on the Packers bandwagon, but all the numbers say they cover this big. BEST BET SIX. The pack was looking good for the first half, but they not only failed to cover, but they lost outright. (-1)
That makes me 2-3-1 for the day and leaves me no choice but to take the Bills tonight to even things out. I have a hard figuring the Bills. They’re not that bad and the new guy at quarterback looked pretty good last week against the Jets. That, and the fact that the 10-point line just doesn’t sound right. But, my numbers say Cowboys big! Logic says the Cowboys should be easy winners. Then Why only the ten points? It's the logical of illogic as I make the Bills a BEST BET!
Labels: football betting, football picks
Sunday, October 07, 2007
WEEK FIVE 2007
By the way, I was 6-2 last week, or 6-3 if you took my reluctant play on the Steelers. Still, that's a plus three last week. I'll run the numbers so far in a day or so.
NEW ORLEANS 3 Carolina: Carolina wins out right and big. BEST BET ONE.
Jacksonville 2½ KANSAS: The Jags should cover, but a little too close for a play.
WASHINGTON 3½ Detroit: Another line that looks about right, pass.
TENNESSEE 8 Atlanta: Eight points seems big, but I like the Titans by two touchdowns. Give the 8 and still cover. BEST BET TWO.
HOUSTON 5½ Miami: I make Huston a much bigger choice. I hate goofy lines like 5 ½ but the numbers say the Texans, big! BEST BET THREE.
PITTSBURGH 6 Seattle: I make the Steelers 7 ½ point favorites. Too close. Pass.
NEW ENGLAND 16½ Cleveland: This line is huge, but I like the Pats to cover it easily. Big lines always make me nervous. Then again, that’s way they make these lines. Pats are BEST BET FOUR.
Arizona 3 ST. LOUIS: I don’t like picking either of these teams and I suppose nobody else does ether. But my numbers say Arizona is BEST BET FIVE.
NEW YORK GIANTS 3½ New York Jets: I like the Giants, but the line’s too close. Pass.
INDIANAPOLIS 10 Tampa Bay: Line is twice as big as I’d make. My second ‘dog’ pick of the day. But, I’d say pass.
DENVER Pk San Diego: I’m picking Denver, but not strong enough. Pass.
Baltimore 3½ SAN FRANCISCO: Too close. Ravens should cover, but this is a pass.
GREEN BAY 3 Chicago: I hate to look like I’m jumping on the Packers bandwagon, but all the numbers say they cover this big. BEST BET SIX.
That’s six BEST BETS and I’m slightly above .500 so far. This could be a breakthrough week, but I’ve said that before. Monday night is a pass game, but here are the numbers (I refuse to pick a Bill’s game):
Dallas 10 BUFFALO: I make the line Even with their new quarterback, I see the Bills getting blown out. With the numbers I get for this game I’d make the Cowboys a BEST BET against any other team. Hell, if I’m 4-2 or better after Sunday, I’ll take ‘em.
NEW ORLEANS 3 Carolina: Carolina wins out right and big. BEST BET ONE.
Jacksonville 2½ KANSAS: The Jags should cover, but a little too close for a play.
WASHINGTON 3½ Detroit: Another line that looks about right, pass.
TENNESSEE 8 Atlanta: Eight points seems big, but I like the Titans by two touchdowns. Give the 8 and still cover. BEST BET TWO.
HOUSTON 5½ Miami: I make Huston a much bigger choice. I hate goofy lines like 5 ½ but the numbers say the Texans, big! BEST BET THREE.
PITTSBURGH 6 Seattle: I make the Steelers 7 ½ point favorites. Too close. Pass.
NEW ENGLAND 16½ Cleveland: This line is huge, but I like the Pats to cover it easily. Big lines always make me nervous. Then again, that’s way they make these lines. Pats are BEST BET FOUR.
Arizona 3 ST. LOUIS: I don’t like picking either of these teams and I suppose nobody else does ether. But my numbers say Arizona is BEST BET FIVE.
NEW YORK GIANTS 3½ New York Jets: I like the Giants, but the line’s too close. Pass.
INDIANAPOLIS 10 Tampa Bay: Line is twice as big as I’d make. My second ‘dog’ pick of the day. But, I’d say pass.
DENVER Pk San Diego: I’m picking Denver, but not strong enough. Pass.
Baltimore 3½ SAN FRANCISCO: Too close. Ravens should cover, but this is a pass.
GREEN BAY 3 Chicago: I hate to look like I’m jumping on the Packers bandwagon, but all the numbers say they cover this big. BEST BET SIX.
That’s six BEST BETS and I’m slightly above .500 so far. This could be a breakthrough week, but I’ve said that before. Monday night is a pass game, but here are the numbers (I refuse to pick a Bill’s game):
Dallas 10 BUFFALO: I make the line Even with their new quarterback, I see the Bills getting blown out. With the numbers I get for this game I’d make the Cowboys a BEST BET against any other team. Hell, if I’m 4-2 or better after Sunday, I’ll take ‘em.
Labels: football betting, football picks
Archives
September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 August 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 October 2009 January 2010 February 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011
