NFL Picks

Oh yeah, "The BIG GAME" is next week. I don't think I can refer to it as the Super Bowl since the NFL requires a fee if you use the the name Super Bowl. Have you noticed that? A lot of commercials for some of the biggest stores have them selling high definition televisions for "the Big Game". If they say Super Bowl in their ad they have to pay the NFL. They obviously don't need to pay the NFL since nobody says Super Bowl in their ads and it doesn't seem to be hurting the sale of their high definition, big screen televisions. The NFL is fucked up.
They're having a bi-week prior to the Big Game. That's a really good idea even though the players hate it, the coaches hate it, and the fans hate it. I've yet to hear anybody say it's a good idea to have a week off before the Big Game. I know a few casual fans who didn't even realize the Big Game was next week. They forgot all about it. I imagine that happens a lot. Anyway, here's my analysis and pick for the Big Game:

It seems to be offense versus defense. Defense wins championships so why are the Colts giving seven points? Chicago stomped the Saints like rats in a closet. New England couldn't figure out Payton Manning and got beat. New Orleans had a offense that would rival the Colts and couldn't do squat. I can't imagine the Indianapolis defense is any better then New Orleans'. Chicago rushed for almost 200 yards. New England couldn't get a running game going and the Colts wore them down by controlling the ball and by rushing for 123 yards. Maybe the Pats ain't that good after all? Chicago held New Orleans to 56 yards on the ground. The Aints passed for a superior 314 yards and all they had to show for it was two touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Bears had a passing touchdown and three rushing touchdowns. Say what you want about Grossman, he knows how to control a game.
I can't buy into the apparent fact that the Colts defense has become a run stopping steel curtain. Nor am I buying into the bullshit that the Bears defense isn't as good as it was at the beginning of the season. My first impulse was to take the Colts and give the points since they appear to be improving on defense. Then I thought back to their 15-6 "whipping" of the Ravens. That was a win based on stupid/lucky coaching. For the Big Game I expect the Bears to pull out all the stops. They can harass Manning all day and there's no way in hell they won't have a big running game going. Indianapolis, on the other hand, got this far on the back of Peyton Manning. Since he'll be on it for most of his time on the field I'm guessing this game goes down to the wire. Giving the seven is four points too much The Colts may pull out a win, but not by more then three. Take the Bears and the points.

Here's a big hint to predict the outcome as soon as as the Big Game starts: If the Bears don't throw on their first possesion, they're stupid and they're fucked. That'll will be the signal that they have no intelligent game plan and no chance to cover the spread. If you can get some kind of prop from your bookie to cover your ass, grab it. The Colts will end up stomping them.

On the hand, if Lovie's head wasn't up his ass for the last two weeks press your bet on the Bears anyway you can whether or not the first pass was completed.

PS: There's a few spelling errors on this post and I know it. I know it because the Google spell checker identified them. It underlines the misspelled words. However, when you actually try and run the spell check program, the motherfucker doesn't work. Those guys are assholes. Fuck it, I didn't bother to correct any of them. I want everybody to see how fucked up one of the biggest websites in the world is.

Chicago is in the process of humiliating the Aints. The NFL officially makes no sense from a skill/talent prospective. This only can mean one thing...The Indianapolis Colts will stomp the Patriots.
I'm betting that's what all the last minute gamblers and bettors are thinking. Up your wager on the Pats to cover the loss in the NFC title game. The Patriots win out right by at least 7. (Don't even try and tell me pro football isn't the equivalent of professional wrestling).

I already picked the games for tomorrow and it seems like I took the two dogs. New England is getting three and the Saints are getting two. After watching the last couple of rounds of playoff games I'm beginning to suspect that the NFL is indeed fixed. From any perspective the odds lines are totally backward.
I assume the Colts are favored because they beat New England during the regular season by a touchdown. I also assume they're favored because the Patriots are probably going to turn the ball over five times this week, too. That and their five devastating field goals against the Ravens last week. The powerhouse Colts are favored over a team that defeated the San Diego Charges. None of this makes the least bit of sense to me. The Colts should be getting the points. Is it a matter of knowing the betting public or do the fixers in the NFL know that giving the better team points that the money will be so one- sided that the books will clean-up when it's all over. The proof will be in the final score. The Patriots will win if it comes down to talent. Otherwise, this is just another version of pro wrestling.
Chicago is giving New Orleans two points. In the world of pro football betting two points is meaningless. If you're dumb enough to accept "Defense wins championships" you're probably licking your wounds from last weeks Baltimore-Indianapolis game. The Bears just got past Seattle. The Seahawks didn't even deserve to make the playoffs. This should have been a warm-up for the Bears and instead it almost turned into their worst nightmare. They were saved by the dimwitted Mike Holgrem's inept coaching. The best thing anybody could say about Rex Grossman was that at least he didn't do anything to lose the game.
No such luck this week. Sean Payton knows how to coach. The Saints are well rounded team with a strong running attack and a quarterback who's a little better then "not losing the game" Grossman. Lots of assholes will be taking the Bears and the books shouldn't have to call in any "favors" to control this game so I'm looking for an honest effort and the semi-competent refereeing that you've come to expect from the NFL. The Saints will win this easily.

The Colts make it to the AFC championship because Brian Billick was awed at the opportunity such an inept coach as he even made the playoffs. Why the fuck would you try and run against the awesome run defense of Indianapolis Colts? Unfortunately for Tony Dungy he’s about to go up against a coach who knows what he’s doing. As I write this,
New England is playing San Diego and either team has the talent and coaching to whip the hapless Colts like dogs. It won’t matter who wins this one, the winner will cover whatever point spread the bookies come up with.

The Saints beat a very good Eagles team. They have talent and they have brains. Chicago lacks both and will get their asses kicked like they deserve. Fuck the line, the Saints cover.

I may seem a little premature in my championship picks, but this won’t be hard. Both games are foregone conclusions and the lines won’t be big enough to affect the outcome. The AFC champs will win the Super Bowl. The Saints will play tough, but I wouldn’t give them more then three points.

Speaking of lines, I’m 2-1 right now and I'm feeling good about New England.

It’s a couple of hours before the kickoff of the Colts versus the Ravens. I avoid at all costs watching or listening to any sports shows before making my decisions since I don’t like being influenced by morons. After having registering my picks, however, I like to see what the “pros” think.
It doesn’t take the insight of a washed-up, opps, I mean retired NFL player to note the Ravens have a superior defense that, if handled properly, will pressure Manning all day. The Colts have only two options, strike first and fast and/or forget about even trying to have a running game. Tony Dungy isn’t smart enough to try either. There’ll be an obvious, futile attempt to “establish” a non-existent running game and Indianapolis may just set a league record for the most 3 and outs in a playoff game. The current line has moved to Indianapolis +4. If you’re willing to accept that then you might as well bet the Colts to win. This game shouldn’t even be close. I picked the Ravens by nine and think that was being conservative.

The Saints and Eagles game has been over analyzed to death. The “pros” seem pretty much split on this one. Everyone is quoting previous records and stats. Fact of the matter is, New Orleans had a relatively weak schedule and lacks all kinds of experience. The eagles are peaking at the right time and have a firm grasp of their strengths and weaknesses. The Saints only bright spot was whipping the Cowboys. They defeated the Eagles by a field goal, but they didn’t have to deal with Jeff Garcia. This is a much better Eagles team they face and should be getting, not giving points. By the fourth quarter the stadium will be half empty and the Eagles will be playing their back-ups. The Saints had a decent run.

The Seahawks and the Bears has everybody questioning the ability of Chicago to mount an offense with one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. The question here is can the Bears win on defense? Seattle has the talent to score some points, and it certainly wouldn’t take much of a defense to hold Chicago to single digits. Unfortunately, Seattle has an idiot for a coach. With anybody else calling the plays Seattle would be a lock getting 9 ½ points. I recommend a pass, but if I’m right on Saturday I’d say take a shot with Seattle on Sunday.

San Diego and New England should be a dead-even game. The NFL pundits are all going with the experienced and proven Patriots. I did, too. Five points is a token line and should get money moved to New England. Either way, you have to take the points in this one.

One and three…big deal. There’s plenty of time to turn things around.


January 13

Colts at the Ravens: As good as the Chiefs’ game plan was, the Colts managed to see through the brilliance of run-run-pass and total lack of defense. They ended up looking good. Herm Edwards has more then few options now since the Kansas City front office was on the phone to Bill Cowher at half-time. Baltimore didn’t go 13-3 without some intelligent game planning. Manning will be scrambling like a plate of eggs and the Ravens have an adequate passing game that will set up the run. Baltimore by 9.
The Colts are getting 4 ½, good enough for a bet on the Ravens.

Eagles at New Orleans: Two Cinderella teams. A lot of money was on the Eagles when they played the Giants and it was up to the referees to keep the game close in the fourth quarter. They came through like the twisted little criminals they are and Philly won but failed to cover. I’m giving the Saints six since they’ll be giving the points anyway.
The Saints are giving the five they should be getting. The Eagles are a great bet.

January 14

Seahawks at the Bears: The Seahawks showed they’re no better the Lions by beating the Cowboys using a play straight out of “North Dallas Forty”. Chicago may not have any offense but their defense will send the overrated Mike Holmgren back to Seattle where everyone will be reminding him that Shaun Alexander is a running back and maybe he should have used him more. Bears by 10.
The lines 9 ½. Tempts me recommend the Seahawks. But I suggest pass.

New England at San Diego: This is the real Super Bowl. Whoever wins this game takes home the trophy the first Sunday of February. Make your plans for the real party on Sunday night. It’s coaching versus real talent. This game is plus/minus three either way.
Great, the line is New England plus five. That makes the Patriots very bettable.

I don't normally don't do this. In fact, I've never done it. The Kansas City Chiefs are now getting seven! The other lines have moved slightly, but, no matter. Every game has "CRUSH" stamped all over them. I betting the big boys made a mistake on the Chiefs versus the Colts. The line should have gone the other way! It's a mistake. Don't be fooled, it's stupid money. Stick with the picks.

I went 4-2, splitting my two Best Bets. I’m something like 42-21-1 over the last five or six weeks. I’m compiling the final numbers for the regular season now. I’ll have the time for that since the playoffs start and the real fun begins. The important thing is I got really hot as the season drew to a close.
The playoffs are a whole different animal when it comes to handicapping. It’s going to be hard not get this right. Here goes:


Kansas City at Indianapolis: The Chiefs needed the Broncos to lose and Denver obliged by collapsing in style. Now they’ve backed into the wild card and have to take on the once mighty Colts. They get another break. I pretty much predicted an Indianapolis meltdown. They managed to pull out a five-point victory over the Miami Dolphins and their rookie quarterback. They hardly looked like a playoff team with coach Dungy sweating bullets and superstar Peyton Manning prowling the sidelines like a caged animal as Miami made one last effort in the closing minutes to win the game.
It’s a foregone conclusion that KC will run all over the Colts defense and Trent Green ain’t no rookie. If anybody has momentum it’s the Chiefs. Kansas City –9.
As I suspected, the Chiefs are getting 3. A lot of bettors aren’t willing to write off the Colts yet. I am. Take the Chiefs and the three points.



Dallas at Seattle: As much as I like “The Big Tuna”, you don’t win playoff games if you can’t keep the other guys from scoring. Parcels pretty much has lost control of his team and probably himself. You don’t lose to the Detroit Lions and then start packing your tanning lotion for a trip to the Super Bowl. To win this one they’ll need to score a lot of points and the once dreaded possibility of the Romo-Owens connection just hasn’t materialized. Dallas’ rookie quarterback has succumbed to the same affliction that turned T.O. into the rabid media whore that will find him without a contract on Sunday. Even if Parcels can keep Romo locked up in his room Friday night he’ll probable be sneaking this week’s bimbo in the backdoor. The run is over for Dallas this season, and Bill got what he wanted. The Cowboys at least made it to the playoffs.
Seattle, on the other hand, finally came to their senses. They’ve started to take themselves seriously and stomping Tampa Bay was just a warm-up. I’m making the line Seattle –7, but I’d be willing to give a few more.
The Seahawks are minus three. There’s a lot of Cowboy money out there and the bookies want their cut. They might be that close after the first quarter. Take the Seahawks and give the points.



New York Jets at New England Patriots: The Cinderella season is over for the Jets. A lot of people are impressed with their final record and their performance. Lucky for them they had a weak schedule. Unlucky for them that they have to deal with the well-oiled machine of the New England Patriots who are humming along at just the right time. Belichick has his boys in high gear after beating the Titans like a mule and the Jets will be will be lucky to get out of Foxboro with their uniforms in tact. New England by at least ten.
The line is New England by nine. Hell, I was being conservative. Take the Pats and give the points.


The New York Giants at the Philadelphia Eagles: What you see is what you get. The Giants have the look of a team that hoped they didn’t have to go through a playoff game. There’s a feeling of dread in New York and Eli’s hoping he doesn’t get intercepted too many times. The Eagles didn’t even bother to show up in Atlanta and toyed with Mike Vick and company just for the exercise. This Eagle team may be the best one ever and the Giants are just hoping the beating won’t leave too many welts. Eagles by 10 (at least).
The Eagles are only giving six. There must be a lot of diehard Giants fans out there. Six points are nothing. New York might not even score that many. Take the Eagles.

Best bets? All of them. Three out of four are taking the favorite, but the Chiefs as the dog may just be the Best Bet of them all.