NFL Picks

Don't bother asking "why?". I did a little research on some college games and came up with a play...just trying it out. Forida versus Alabama with Alabama getting 15.5 points. I'm saying take 'Bama and the points. (I hate college football in general. This pick will not count toward my NFL picks. I applied some of my NFL principles to this game and came up with Florida by two).

Let me say that not only do I appreciate comments, but I look forward to them. If a comment seems to be of general interest or requires a longer response, I'll make a post (sometimes I get a little long). In this case I was asked how I did last year...a good question. I've been tinkering with this method for about two years now. This will be my first real attempt at maintaining records. Last year I hit at 39 out of 68 (57%). I only tracked results for the highest rated plays (i.e. point differentials of 7 or more). I started the season like this one. Initially my percentage was higher but not at the current rate it is now (79%). As the season went on I made adjustments to my ratings which, in retrospect, seems to have been a mistake. I also realized that waiting for differences of 7 or more points would limit my action on certain weekends. I also realized that small differentials yielded a number of winners. I'm basing my picks on spreads of 5.5 points or more and so far, so good.
I'm also resisting temptation to adjust ratings as quickly as I did last year. For instance, I'm still fuming over Atlanta's pathetic performance and surprised at New Orleans strong performance. I'm not jumping to any conclusions just yet. You can't win 'em all and the nature of football is what it is. I also should note that I don't make adjustments for injuries or weather, etc. I let the oddsmakers make those mistakes and try to take advantage.

This week I've come up with nine playable games. I suspected as much since the oddsmakers adjust their line according to public sentiment more then the reality of the game. Here's a closer look and some thoughts:

I have Atlanta and Arizona as basically even (Atlanta has a one point edge). I'd admit, I'm bitter because they ruined my perfect weekend but I resisted the temptation to adjust their rating after such a pathetic display on Monday. Meanwhile Kurt Warner had a horrible outing but he's a pro and not a hotdog like Vick. I think he rebounds and the 8 points Arizona is getting is way too many. Arizona looks like a very solid play.

The Jets are getting nine points from Indy. Indianapolis is a scoring machine and New York isn't. I like Indy by twice as much and stick by that.

Miami versus Huston. Huston is my worst rated team. Brunell set a passing record against them after coming off a dismal performance against Dallas. I watched the game and it seemed to me he'd completely lost it. Looks like Huston deserves their worst rating and Miami may be getting their act together. Besides Culpepper is better then Brunell, isn't he? In any event four points isn't enough. Miami should get their first big win.

Minnesota and Buffalo. Buffalo's my "home team" and I hate picking against them. I hardly expected them to be favored. Consider this, Willis McGahee ran for 150 yards and Buffalo still lost to the Jets! There's something wrong there. Minnesota looks like they'll win.

New Orleans is coming off a high with their big home opener. Carolina should be a playoff team and struggled against Tennessee. Both teams are due for a reality check. Carolina should pound them.

Kansas City and San Francisco is a questionable game despite the spread. Trent Green is again out and Frisco seems to playing decently. On the otherhand, KC fought Denver to the bitter end without their starting quarterback. Good teams win and mediocre teams lose. KC is better and giving up a touchdown doesn't seem like a lot for them to overcome. Go with Kansas City.

I have Detroit and St. Louis even. I don't think much of Detroit but then again, I don't think much of St.Louis, either. I'll take whoever gets the points in this match-up. It's Detroit getting 5.5.

Seattle and Chicago is one of those games I don't understand. Both teams are unbeaten. Maybe Chicago is giving points because they're at home? Maybe Shaun Alexander sitting out gives Chicago the edge? Maybe Chicago's top rated defense gives them the edge? I dunno. Alexander hasn't been all that effective in the first three games, the Bears haven't really played anybody that tough, and I don't put a lot of stock in home field advantage. Maybe I'm missing something big, but I see Seattle going home 4-0.

On Monday night Green Bay goes to Philadelphia with a 10.5 point led. While I don't envision the Packers winning I think the game will be a lot closer. Take Green Bay and the points.

Now, a word about statistics. My current stats give me 79% win percentage (11 out of 14). Pretty impressive for football. After 3 weeks of a 17 week season that may not mean much. On the otherhand, if this trend holds up I should go 7 for 9 this weekend. If I really want to go out on a limb and extrapolate the preceding three weeks into this fourth week, I should win 8 of the 9. And if my aunt was built differently she'd be my uncle.
Realistically I'm basing my selections on what I consider to be pretty reliable statistics and a bit of observation and analysis. The fact that I'm better then 50% (and you) indicates that so far I have some sound principles at work. Under strictly random picking I should do no worse then 4-5 this week. Not healthy for a bankroll but that would make me a sound 15-8 for the first four weeks (65%). On paper that still looks good.
To sum up, at this point I have confidence in my methodology and anticipate a minimum of six winners. If only I could determine exactly which ones they'll be!

I admit, it’s all my fault. I never should have tempted fate and started bragging about my “perfect game”. Atlanta looked pathetic and Michael "“I can win the game by myself"” Vick has replaced Eli Manning as the most overrated quarterback ever. I'’m assuming they didn'’t throw the game on purpose to help out the once great city of New Orleans get back on its feet. More about that some other time.
First, a summary of week three: Won 5, Lost 1
Second, bragging about the wins: Four of my “dog” picks won outright, and the favorite (Washington) clobbered Huston.
Third, making excuses for the losses: Atlanta sucks. I'’ve already said enough about them.
TOTAL TO DATE: Won 11, Lost 3. That'’s almost 79% winners, and that'’s pretty damn good and pretty damn profitable.
Here'’s the line for this weekend and it turns out I was right. There appears to be a lot of playable games:


Favorite...........My Line.......Dog................"Offical Line"


Atlanta.................1............Arizona................Atlanta.............8

Dallas..................9.5..........Tennessee.......... Dallas.............10

Indianapolis........18...........N.Y. Jets............ Indianapolis............9

Miami..................11.5........Houston...............Miami...........4

Minnesota..............5..........Buffalo................. Buffalo...........1.5

Carolina................16..........New Orleans........Carolina.............8.5

San Diego............ 7.5.........Baltimore............. San Diego............2.5

Kansas City..........16.........San Francisco.......Kansas City............7

Detroit................EVEN.....St. Louis............... St. Louis..........................5.5

Cleveland...............1..........Oakland.................Cleveland................2.5

Jacksonville..........3...........Washington.......... Jacksonville.............2.5

Cincinnati..............3...........New England....... Cincinnati............6

Seattle.................6.5..........Chicago................. Chicago..............3

Philadelphia.....EVEN.............. Green Bay...............Philadelphia.................. 10.5

I have Atlanta one point better then Arizona and line has Arizona getting 8. Right now I despise Atlanta and would happily pick against them as the line dictates I should. I do so reluctantly. Take Arizona.
The Jets are getting 9 points, half of what it should be. Take Indy.
Miami's giving Huston 4, Miami should be getting it together by now, take Miami.
Once again Buffalo's favored at home...I don't think so. Take Minnisota.
Carolina versus New Orleans. Time for the big let down. Take Carolina.
Kansas City is give San Fransisco only seven since Green won't be playing. And Frisco has who? Take KC.
I have Detroit even with St. Louis. This may be the only time I take Detroit.
Seattle is 6.5 points better then Chicago but they're getting points because Alexander is out. This may be the last time you'll get Seattle and points. Take Seattle.
Once again Monday night looks like a major play. I have the game even and Green Bay is getting 10.5. You want to give Brett Favre 10.5 points? I'll take it. Green Bay's the play.

That's nine plays this weekend and you probably won't see that too often. Five early games, three later games, and Monday night. Lot's of action. Lot's of potential profit. More about that later.

(For the record: I did write this about three hours before kickoff but since this site really sucks, it didn't post on my first three tries. Atlanta's losing 14-3. Michael Vick sucks, but I went with my numbers).

There's a couple of hours to Monday Night Football and I'm feeling fine! I'm 5-0 so far for the weekend and tonight Atlanta is my pick. I have them winning by 10.5, and the recent line has them giving four. I may even watch the game even though ESPN has taken over and they're doing their damnedest to wreck a fine tradition. I'm not sure who the jackasses in the booth are, but I'm pretty sure one of them is Joe Theisman. He's taken time off from selling rip-off insurance policies to bore Monday night football watchers to tears. I gotta say, he's one of the worst commentators ever. And the two clowns calling the game with him are almost as useless. I don't suppose there's any chance he'll sustain a compound fracture in the booth and will have to be replaced. One can always hope.
Last night I watched Denver manhandle New England. Did I suggest trying to get a price on them winning out right? Yes, I did! It's three weeks into the season and Jake Plummer seems to have the maturity he should have had three or four years ago. The Denver defense is officially one of the best so I'm staying with my rating for them.
Speaking of Sunday night, Madden and Michaels, the former Monday night team are at least watchable. But who's the asshole that directs the on field cameras? Did that stupid jackass really think I wanted to see a replay of one of Denver's defensive linemen puking on the field? I'm sitting at home watching football, not "Jackass Two". I hope the moron gets fired.
Anyway, I've made up my line for the coming weekend and I can already see some big plays. I need some sort of official line to compare to, but I know what to expect. That'll be up tomorrow. Meanwhile, cash in on Atlanta.

It's nearing the end of the third quarter of the Patriots versus the Broncos. Denver is leading by 10 and, frankly New England looks pretty bad. I'm 4-0 so far and on my way to 5-0. If I was superstitious I wouldn't tempt fate and write this now but I'm looking at 11 and 3 or a 78%!
Makes me feel like the Monday night game will be a lock. I did some checking and the line may have moved a bit, but not enough to change the pick.

I feel compelled to review my picks for the week so here goes:

Detroit and Green Bay: Green Bay is getting six and a half points. I don't get it at all. Detroit sucks and Green Bay has Bret Favre, don't they? I figure the game is even. I thought the "official" line would be giving the points to Detroit. My 'gut' tells me this may actually be the best bet.

Jets and Buffalo: I made this game even. Buffalo's getting points for being at home and the fact that they beat the over rated Miami team. Their defense looks good, but they have no offense. If the Jets protect the ball they should win out right. I should make a disclaimer here. Buffalo is my "hometeam" and I watch all their games. Their offense doesn't impress me. If New York scores first, it's over.

Washington and Huston: Huston sucks. Washington's offensive line looked like shit when they played Dallas but Dallas may be that good. This week they have Portis back and that should make a difference. I pick 'em by better then two touchdowns but the "official line" has them at only 4. That always makes me wonder but I just don't get it.

St. Louis and Arizona: Looks like the battle of "used to be" quarterbacks. Defense should be the difference and I don't think Arizona has any. St. Louis is getting points and I figure them to win out right.

Denver and New England: Thank GOD this game is the late one! If I'm running 'cold' by this time (like you've lost the early games) stay the fuck away from this one! I figure Denver the winner (by 3.5). They're getting 7 on the line. This game rests in the hands of Jake Plummer. Let's face it, the guy could have been one of the all-time greats but he's psycho! If his mood swings in the positive direction Denver can win this. If he's off his meds, Denver can get blown out. I'm going with the thinking that they up his medication and he has a good day. I'd suggest that if the proceeding games work out the way I figure play this one big. If you can get a price for Denver winning out right, go for it.


Atlanta and New Orleans: This game is even. First game at home for New Orleans, emotions are high, blah,blah, blah. Atlanta's the better team. Unless they throw the game on purpose or Vick breaks a leg running for his third touchdown, Atlanta should blow them away. Both teams are mediocre at best, but, Atlanta did beat Carolina.

That's six games and I'm thinking six wins. Realistically I'd be happy with 4 and 2. I'm uncomfortable with the Jets and the Broncos. I'll put my excuses up Tuesday.

First, a summary of week two: Won 4, Lost 1
Second, bragging about the wins: What’s there to say? Four and one! Okay, I hedged on Denver since Plummer appears to be off his meds. I’m still hesitating to downgrade them but I’d be cautious. The Giants won out right. Indy destroyed Huston and Seattle seems to be getting back into form.
Third, making excuses for the losses: Hey, Green Bay was in it until the end. They couldn’t take advantage of their early led.
TOTAL TO DATE: Won 6, Lost 3. That’s 67% winners my friend!
Okay, here’s the new and improved line (since some people are having a hard time understanding this):




Carolina......................... 6.5............................... Tampa Bay............................. Carolina........ 3

Chicago.......................... 4.5............................... Minnesota.............................. Chicago.......... 4

Pittsburgh..................... 2.5............................... Cincinnati............................... Pittsburgh..... 3

Detroit................ 1..... .......................... Green Bay............................. Detroit...... 6.5

Indianapolis.................... 6................................ Jacksonville............................ Indianapolis..... 9

N.Y. Jets ................ EVEN.......................... Buffalo............................. Buffalo....... 5.5

Miami............................... 8.5............................ Tennessee................................ Miami............ 11

Washington............. 14.5....................... Houston.......................... Washington... 4

Baltimore....................... 4................................. Cleveland.................................. Baltimore....... 6.5

Seattle............................ 3................................. N.Y. Giants................................ Seattle............. 3.5

Philadelphia................... 7................................. San Francisco............................ Philadelphia..... 6

St. Louis..................... 2.......................... Arizona ........................... Arizona....... 4.5

Denver................ 3.5....................... New England.................... New England.. 7



Atlanta.............. 10.5............... New Orleans.......................... EVEN


The biggest differentials are highlighted, grab your calculator and figure them out yourself. Now here's the strategy. Detroit is giving Green Bay 6.5, I think think the games pretty close to even, take Green Bay. I have the Jets even with Buffalo, the Jets are getting 5.5, take the Jets. Washington should bury Huston, and Huston's only getting 4. Washington is the best bet of the early games.
For the later games I like St. Louis by 2, they're getting 4.5, take St. Louis. Fortunately, the game I'm least comfortable with is the late game. Naturally, New England is favored over Denver, but, Denver has the potential to win out right. Take Denver.
Lastly, the Monday night game turns out to be one of the best bets for the week. I like Atlanta by 10.5 and the line has them even. Probably because of all the hype about it being New Orleans big homecoming. Emotion or not, Atlanta is the better team.
If you're ahead on the early games, bet both the later games. If not wait and see how St. Louis does. If you win that then go with Denver. No matter what happens, you should have a solid winner Monday night.

Once again I apologize for how shitty the layout is, but, I have to work with this awkward program.

posted by PONUSJOE  # 7:27 AM 0 comments