NFL Picks

Let me say that not only do I appreciate comments, but I look forward to them. If a comment seems to be of general interest or requires a longer response, I'll make a post (sometimes I get a little long). In this case I was asked how I did last year...a good question. I've been tinkering with this method for about two years now. This will be my first real attempt at maintaining records. Last year I hit at 39 out of 68 (57%). I only tracked results for the highest rated plays (i.e. point differentials of 7 or more). I started the season like this one. Initially my percentage was higher but not at the current rate it is now (79%). As the season went on I made adjustments to my ratings which, in retrospect, seems to have been a mistake. I also realized that waiting for differences of 7 or more points would limit my action on certain weekends. I also realized that small differentials yielded a number of winners. I'm basing my picks on spreads of 5.5 points or more and so far, so good.
I'm also resisting temptation to adjust ratings as quickly as I did last year. For instance, I'm still fuming over Atlanta's pathetic performance and surprised at New Orleans strong performance. I'm not jumping to any conclusions just yet. You can't win 'em all and the nature of football is what it is. I also should note that I don't make adjustments for injuries or weather, etc. I let the oddsmakers make those mistakes and try to take advantage.