NFL Picks
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
A BETTER APPROACH
I’ve been taking the wrong approach to handicapping football games. In the past I’ve been relying on a set of statistics I’ve been compiling all along to determine the best betting scenario. I now see how that was wrong. It worked okay at the beginning of the season since I had little to go on. I now look at handicapping football the same way I look at handicapping a horse race. Using figures to determine the outcome of football game is a lot like depending on speed figures for a race. They help, but there are a lot of other factors involved.
Case in point: Pittsburgh versus Oakland. On paper, giving the Raiders nine or so points seems reasonable. One of the statistically worst teams in the NFL going up against the Super Bowl champs. Why would I even think Oakland could win this? Because Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher was so worried about the game his was willing to risk Ben Roethlisberger when he has a perfectly good back-up quarterback in Charlie Batch. “Big Ben” suffered a concussion in his last game and, on paper Oakland shouldn’t have been that difficult to beat. At the time, the Steelers were 2-4 and needed to win this game. Ben “I don’t need a helmet” Rothlisberger has a huge ego. Four interceptions and a fumble later the Steelers were 2-5. Ben should never have played.
Football, unlike horse racing, is a team sport. Sure, there are key players, but one guy can screw up the results. I anticipated as much from Jake Plummer when I picked Indianapolis over Denver. Plummer could have been one of the all-time greats in the NFL but he’s a head case and now, he’s just too old. I look for the big meltdown anytime he might get off to a bad start. In fact, I’m looking for it this week.
By the same token, when a team plays like a team (take New England for example) they win. And they win often. Like the Bears who overcame six turnovers by their quarterback to beat Arizona a couple of weeks ago.
In horse racing you look for form and class, not just speed. The fastest horse doesn’t always win the race. It takes a smart (or just good) jockey and a competent trainer to win. In that regard, horses are more reliable, more predictable, and smell better then most NFL teams. I prefer handicapping animals to humans. Horses don’t have egos. They don’t get overconfident and, ultimately, you only have to consider the animal. The odds are determined by the betting crowd, and they are wrong 67% of the time.
In football, the odds makers don’t have to have any idea as to which team will win. They only have to persuade half the betting public to be wrong. That’s what the line reflects. Take this week:
Miami is playing Chicago in Chicago. Obviously, Chicago will win. There’s no reason to believe they won’t. They’re undefeated and playing at home. The real question is, will they win by more or less then two touchdowns? Miami hasn’t lost by more then 11 points in their last ten games. That includes some pretty good teams. At the beginning of the season they were everybody’s darlings to be a force, but now they’re 1-6. I’d make the line 13.5 points too if I was a bookie. The smart money will take the points, but there’s a lot of dumb money out there.
Now Atlanta and Detroit is a different approach. I’m surprised Detroit is only getting 5.5. I didn’t expect that one. Vick’s been playing well lately and Detroit…Well, Detroit sucks. They always seem to play close and end up losing. But, then again, Atlanta keeps it close but wins more. I severely question the five points. Atlanta should cover that. But, that’s too obvious. I’m suspicious. Five and a half is too low and that makes me want to back Detroit.
Dallas and Washington. Tony Romolotti (or whatever his name is) is the new kid on the block. Dallas beat Carolina. Washington is on a losing streak. Washington is getting three points in a game I figure them to win. I figure that because I see them blitzing the hell out of Tony and he has a lot to prove to me. I think his win over Carolina was a fluke.
The line has Tampa and New Orleans even (okay, Tampa’s getting a point). Again, this is one I don’t understand at all. I’ve either missed something big or my reasoning is really faulty. The Saints are 5-2 and Tampa’s 2-5. I thought at the beginning of the season Tampa was underrated and they proved to be good bets against the spread. But, I can’t see this one. It’ll be a fairly close game but New Orleans will win by more then a point. I think this line is being determined more by betting habits then reality.
In the later games you have Denver playing Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is giving 2 ½. I thought it would be other way around. Doesn’t matter. The Steelers defense will rattle Plummer early and Ben won’t make the same mistakes here. An easy cover (watch for Jake’s big blow-up).
San Diego is giving Cleveland 12 ½ points. Scary since Cleveland just beat the Jets and I think the Jets are a pretty good team. On the other hand when San Diego wins, they win convincingly. I think they can cover the spread.
The Colts and Patriots are a toss-up. I wouldn’t play this game. But, for the sake of discussion, if the line makers are giving points to the Patriots, I have to take them. New England wins the big games and the Colts choke in the clutch. If I’m wrong here, then this may be Indianapolis’ big year.
Monday night has Oakland once again getting nine points. This time from Seattle. No Shaun Alexander for the Seahawks, slim chance to win. Take the points.
Okay, that’s seven games with a “maybe” for New England/Indianapolis. If I’m even or better by game time I’m taking the Patriots.
Case in point: Pittsburgh versus Oakland. On paper, giving the Raiders nine or so points seems reasonable. One of the statistically worst teams in the NFL going up against the Super Bowl champs. Why would I even think Oakland could win this? Because Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher was so worried about the game his was willing to risk Ben Roethlisberger when he has a perfectly good back-up quarterback in Charlie Batch. “Big Ben” suffered a concussion in his last game and, on paper Oakland shouldn’t have been that difficult to beat. At the time, the Steelers were 2-4 and needed to win this game. Ben “I don’t need a helmet” Rothlisberger has a huge ego. Four interceptions and a fumble later the Steelers were 2-5. Ben should never have played.
Football, unlike horse racing, is a team sport. Sure, there are key players, but one guy can screw up the results. I anticipated as much from Jake Plummer when I picked Indianapolis over Denver. Plummer could have been one of the all-time greats in the NFL but he’s a head case and now, he’s just too old. I look for the big meltdown anytime he might get off to a bad start. In fact, I’m looking for it this week.
By the same token, when a team plays like a team (take New England for example) they win. And they win often. Like the Bears who overcame six turnovers by their quarterback to beat Arizona a couple of weeks ago.
In horse racing you look for form and class, not just speed. The fastest horse doesn’t always win the race. It takes a smart (or just good) jockey and a competent trainer to win. In that regard, horses are more reliable, more predictable, and smell better then most NFL teams. I prefer handicapping animals to humans. Horses don’t have egos. They don’t get overconfident and, ultimately, you only have to consider the animal. The odds are determined by the betting crowd, and they are wrong 67% of the time.
In football, the odds makers don’t have to have any idea as to which team will win. They only have to persuade half the betting public to be wrong. That’s what the line reflects. Take this week:
Miami is playing Chicago in Chicago. Obviously, Chicago will win. There’s no reason to believe they won’t. They’re undefeated and playing at home. The real question is, will they win by more or less then two touchdowns? Miami hasn’t lost by more then 11 points in their last ten games. That includes some pretty good teams. At the beginning of the season they were everybody’s darlings to be a force, but now they’re 1-6. I’d make the line 13.5 points too if I was a bookie. The smart money will take the points, but there’s a lot of dumb money out there.
Now Atlanta and Detroit is a different approach. I’m surprised Detroit is only getting 5.5. I didn’t expect that one. Vick’s been playing well lately and Detroit…Well, Detroit sucks. They always seem to play close and end up losing. But, then again, Atlanta keeps it close but wins more. I severely question the five points. Atlanta should cover that. But, that’s too obvious. I’m suspicious. Five and a half is too low and that makes me want to back Detroit.
Dallas and Washington. Tony Romolotti (or whatever his name is) is the new kid on the block. Dallas beat Carolina. Washington is on a losing streak. Washington is getting three points in a game I figure them to win. I figure that because I see them blitzing the hell out of Tony and he has a lot to prove to me. I think his win over Carolina was a fluke.
The line has Tampa and New Orleans even (okay, Tampa’s getting a point). Again, this is one I don’t understand at all. I’ve either missed something big or my reasoning is really faulty. The Saints are 5-2 and Tampa’s 2-5. I thought at the beginning of the season Tampa was underrated and they proved to be good bets against the spread. But, I can’t see this one. It’ll be a fairly close game but New Orleans will win by more then a point. I think this line is being determined more by betting habits then reality.
In the later games you have Denver playing Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is giving 2 ½. I thought it would be other way around. Doesn’t matter. The Steelers defense will rattle Plummer early and Ben won’t make the same mistakes here. An easy cover (watch for Jake’s big blow-up).
San Diego is giving Cleveland 12 ½ points. Scary since Cleveland just beat the Jets and I think the Jets are a pretty good team. On the other hand when San Diego wins, they win convincingly. I think they can cover the spread.
The Colts and Patriots are a toss-up. I wouldn’t play this game. But, for the sake of discussion, if the line makers are giving points to the Patriots, I have to take them. New England wins the big games and the Colts choke in the clutch. If I’m wrong here, then this may be Indianapolis’ big year.
Monday night has Oakland once again getting nine points. This time from Seattle. No Shaun Alexander for the Seahawks, slim chance to win. Take the points.
Okay, that’s seven games with a “maybe” for New England/Indianapolis. If I’m even or better by game time I’m taking the Patriots.
Sunday, October 29, 2006
SUNDAY NIGHT
I'm not sure which coach is the bigger idiot. Parcells seems to have done the right thing by inserting Tony Roman (or whatever his name is) in as quarterback. Or is John Fox so stupid that blitzing a new quarteback in a critical game never occurred to him? I'm writing this and Dallas is leading 28-14. Bad news for Carolina, good news for me. I predicted a Dallas meltdown and turns out I was wrong (today). Just sets me up for next week. I've realized a few (lot) of weakness in my previous selection method which did serve me well at the start of the season, but, past the midway point it's time to adjust. Now, line be damned, I don't need it. Here are next weeks picks. Don't worry about the spreads, they'll only help you either way:
Early games:
Miami and Chicago: Perfect game, take Miami and whatever points you get. This game will be close.
Atlanta and Detroit: Likewise. Right now everyone is going to be high on Michael Vick. Three great weeks in a row? Don't think so. You should be getting a bushel of points here.
Dallas and Washington: What a set-up. I can't begin to imagine what the line's gonna be, but, Washington won't play as stupid as Carolina. Unless they're giving Dallas 14 or more take Washington.
Tampa Bay and New Orleans: The Saints will roll, Tampa's done. Give all the points you want.
Afternoon games:
Denver and Pittsburgh: Another set-up. Take the Steelers. So they lost to Oakland and Denver looked good though they lost to Indy. Makes for a good line. Everybody will have "Big Ben" dead and buried and Plummer's everybody's' boy now. I'm guessing you'll get points with the Steelers. What a bargain!
San Diego and Cleveland: I admit, Cleveland surprised me by beating the Jets. They'll be getting points, but not nearly enough. Take the Chargers.
The late game with Indianapolis and New England is too close for me, as is Monday night with the Seahawks and the Raiders. I may change that when I see the line and who's playing.
Early games:
Miami and Chicago: Perfect game, take Miami and whatever points you get. This game will be close.
Atlanta and Detroit: Likewise. Right now everyone is going to be high on Michael Vick. Three great weeks in a row? Don't think so. You should be getting a bushel of points here.
Dallas and Washington: What a set-up. I can't begin to imagine what the line's gonna be, but, Washington won't play as stupid as Carolina. Unless they're giving Dallas 14 or more take Washington.
Tampa Bay and New Orleans: The Saints will roll, Tampa's done. Give all the points you want.
Afternoon games:
Denver and Pittsburgh: Another set-up. Take the Steelers. So they lost to Oakland and Denver looked good though they lost to Indy. Makes for a good line. Everybody will have "Big Ben" dead and buried and Plummer's everybody's' boy now. I'm guessing you'll get points with the Steelers. What a bargain!
San Diego and Cleveland: I admit, Cleveland surprised me by beating the Jets. They'll be getting points, but not nearly enough. Take the Chargers.
The late game with Indianapolis and New England is too close for me, as is Monday night with the Seahawks and the Raiders. I may change that when I see the line and who's playing.
FORGET THE PAST
College football sucks. It makes no sense, they play like amateurs, the games are fixed, it means nothing. I actually watched a couple of games and it didn't take long to see the lack of talent and realize that the officials control the results. Betting on college is only lucrative for the bookmakers. To bet on college is to play the lottery or bingo. It's not gambling, it's plain luck. Most (about 99%) of the players will never have a professional carrier. They'll end up pumping gas, working at a convenience store, or selling insurance. Even most of the ones who turn pro will end up as nothing. All college ball is a cruel farm league for "never-was, never-will-be" high school morons who have nothing to look forward to. Trying to handicap these charades is a total waste of time. The only way to cash in is to be plugged in to the guys who have the juice to fix these events. I'm not.
Not all games are fixed, they don't need to be. It's just not practical to try and beat them. The games that capture your interest are the ones most likely to be manipulated. I don't have the time or enthusiasm to separate the legitimate plays from the phonies. Think I'm wrong or paranoid? Consider this, So called "experts" analyze the games and rank the teams. It always the same 25 getting rated with few exceptions. Nobody likes the ranking system and ranked teams get beaten by unranked teams with regularity. How the fuck is that even remotely possible if the standings reflect the reality in any way? Maybe some day I'll waste more of time with college thoughts but I've had enough. I'll stick with the pros.
It's past the time when making early picks would be fair (it's 2:30 here). So, here are the afternoon games:
Pittsburgh is giving Oakland 9 points. Are you fucking kidding? Not only will Oakland cover , they might actually win.
Denver's favored over Indianapolis. Sucker bet. Plummer will snap and Indy will roll.
Cleveland's giving the Jets 2 points. They should be getting 20. The Jets will kill them.
Dallas and Carolina has the going nowhere Cowboys only getting 5. The line dropped from 6. Holy shit, the bettors are crazy! You should be getting odds whether or not the Cowboys even manage to score!
I thought the biggest joke of the weekend was Dallas only getting 5, but, on Monday night, New England is only giving up 1.5 to the Vikings. Minnesota sucks so bad that they should be getting at least 14. New England buries these losers big time.
Not all games are fixed, they don't need to be. It's just not practical to try and beat them. The games that capture your interest are the ones most likely to be manipulated. I don't have the time or enthusiasm to separate the legitimate plays from the phonies. Think I'm wrong or paranoid? Consider this, So called "experts" analyze the games and rank the teams. It always the same 25 getting rated with few exceptions. Nobody likes the ranking system and ranked teams get beaten by unranked teams with regularity. How the fuck is that even remotely possible if the standings reflect the reality in any way? Maybe some day I'll waste more of time with college thoughts but I've had enough. I'll stick with the pros.
It's past the time when making early picks would be fair (it's 2:30 here). So, here are the afternoon games:
Pittsburgh is giving Oakland 9 points. Are you fucking kidding? Not only will Oakland cover , they might actually win.
Denver's favored over Indianapolis. Sucker bet. Plummer will snap and Indy will roll.
Cleveland's giving the Jets 2 points. They should be getting 20. The Jets will kill them.
Dallas and Carolina has the going nowhere Cowboys only getting 5. The line dropped from 6. Holy shit, the bettors are crazy! You should be getting odds whether or not the Cowboys even manage to score!
I thought the biggest joke of the weekend was Dallas only getting 5, but, on Monday night, New England is only giving up 1.5 to the Vikings. Minnesota sucks so bad that they should be getting at least 14. New England buries these losers big time.
Friday, October 27, 2006
WHY I HATE COLLEGE FOOTBALL (Part 2)
My much anticipated "Big Weekend" got off to a miserable start thanks to the Clemson Pussycats. God did they suck. If I had known they were going to start the cheerleaders instead of the regular squad I would have passed on the game. I don't expect to win every bet (just a slight majority of them), but I do expect to get a little run for my money.
I don't usually watch college football. I get the same level of play at my local high school. But how does the #10 rated team perform so poorly against an unrated one? How do you give up 1,000,000 yards on the ground in the first half when you have such an awesome defense? And why do you start a quarterback, opps, I mean why do you have some one throwing the ball who isn't even sure which guy he's supposed to pass to? And how the hell do you get a job coaching a top twenty-five team when your game plan is "maybe Virginia won't try too hard"? I could accept losing the game because the "Pussies" didn't cover but this wasn't even close. Poor playing and lousy coaching. That's what makes college so much fun to watch. And bet on.
There, I vented. I had hoped to make a small bet on Thursday, win it, and parlay it over to tonight on Tulsa. Didn't happen. So now, I have to double up my small wager on put it on Tulsa if I want to have enough bullets to cash in on Notre Dame-Navy Saturday.
There's no other picks getting posted this weekend, because you won't need any. Carolina is looking better then ever since "Crazy Bill" has decided to start Tony Rome (or what ever his name is). I just hope Tulsa's cheerleaders are on the sideline tonight and not taking the field.
I don't usually watch college football. I get the same level of play at my local high school. But how does the #10 rated team perform so poorly against an unrated one? How do you give up 1,000,000 yards on the ground in the first half when you have such an awesome defense? And why do you start a quarterback, opps, I mean why do you have some one throwing the ball who isn't even sure which guy he's supposed to pass to? And how the hell do you get a job coaching a top twenty-five team when your game plan is "maybe Virginia won't try too hard"? I could accept losing the game because the "Pussies" didn't cover but this wasn't even close. Poor playing and lousy coaching. That's what makes college so much fun to watch. And bet on.
There, I vented. I had hoped to make a small bet on Thursday, win it, and parlay it over to tonight on Tulsa. Didn't happen. So now, I have to double up my small wager on put it on Tulsa if I want to have enough bullets to cash in on Notre Dame-Navy Saturday.
There's no other picks getting posted this weekend, because you won't need any. Carolina is looking better then ever since "Crazy Bill" has decided to start Tony Rome (or what ever his name is). I just hope Tulsa's cheerleaders are on the sideline tonight and not taking the field.
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
A THOUGHT OR TWO
I watched Monday Night Football and besides my usual disgust with the three idiotic commentators lousing up the game, I also witnessed the meltdown of Bill Parcells and the end of his coaching career. His absolutely stupid and retarded decision to pull Drew Bledsoe in favor of rookie Tony Roma (or whatever his name is) to start the second half of a winnable game was, to say the least, idiotic. For all intents and purposes Dallas' season is over and they are now the team to bet against. I don't usually factor in things like coaching stupidity or front office mismanagement, but this so blatant that the only time I will select a Dallas Cowboys game as a betting opportunity is if I consider them overrated by my usual method. They will never be a pick when favored! NEVER! At the beginning of the season I had them picked as a contender but after seeing Parcell's in the throes of Alzhiemers I've written them off. Any win that they stumble into in the coming weeks will be considered a fluke. If they were to play the hapless Raiders this year, I'd take Oakland without a second thought. In fact, this week they're getting 6 points from Carolina. Normally, that would be a pass game for me since I have Carolina three points better. But, no matter who the starting quarterback is, Dallas has no hope and will be severely squashed. I'm sure the line will only go up as the smart money loads up on Carolina. But Dallas fans are degenerates and the line won't go high enough to make the game unbeatable. Here's the best advice you'll ever get when it comes to gambling...Take half your winnings from the Notre Dame-Navy game and and bet Carolina. In fact, here's the strategy that will put you on "Easy Street" for the rest of the season:
Bet your usual on Clemson over Virginia Thursday. Take your winnings and parlay it onto Tulsa over UTEP on Friday. Take that money, add whatever you can beg, barrow or steal onto Navy on Saturday. Cash that in then take half the bankroll and put it on Carolina for the sweetest weekend you'll ever have in your life. Thank me with the results of a quarter bet on Clemson parlayed down the line to Carolina. I'll be cashing my own but it's nice to be appreciated.
Bet your usual on Clemson over Virginia Thursday. Take your winnings and parlay it onto Tulsa over UTEP on Friday. Take that money, add whatever you can beg, barrow or steal onto Navy on Saturday. Cash that in then take half the bankroll and put it on Carolina for the sweetest weekend you'll ever have in your life. Thank me with the results of a quarter bet on Clemson parlayed down the line to Carolina. I'll be cashing my own but it's nice to be appreciated.
DON'T BE STUPID
I'm am about to post the play of the year. But first, allow me to recap my last picks. I'm on fire when it comes to college. My last best bet was Pittsburgh over Central Florida and they buried them making me 3 and 1 with all my best bets winning easily.
In the pros, I'm an even 3-3 after missing out on a potentially profitable weekend (see last post).
It's the midway point of the NFL and now's the time to get hot. And, lucky you, you go into Sunday betting your bookies' money because on Saturday you'll be getting the best bet you ever had in your life! But first, here's a little cautionary tale:
Seems there was this guy (whom I'll call Sonny) who was down on his luck. He goes to his friend, and excellent sports handicapper and says,"I'm screwed! I can't catch a winner to save my life! You got anything?"
The expert tells him,"As a matter-of-fact, I have the best bet, can't lose game of the century this week. As much as you want to win, that's as much as you should bet. The fix is in. The starting quarterback is going to be playing hurt, the back-up sucks, and even two of referees are in on the fix. Nobody knows about the injuries and the the line is so good that even without the fix, the favorite probably wouldn't cover. Bet the dog."
Sonny takes it all in then asks,"Great, so you got another play for a parlay?"
Think about it. I'm not saying there's a fix, but, I am telling you I have the best play of the year this Saturday. Notre Dame versus Navy. Navy is getting an unbelievable 14 points. Take out a second mortgage, forget everything else and bet Navy! Thank me latter.
You can warm-up by taking Clemson(-4.5) over Virgina Tech on Thursday and Tulsa (-14.5) over UTEP. Make it a parlay then bet the bundle on Navy. This is the start of the best year of your life!
In the pros, I'm an even 3-3 after missing out on a potentially profitable weekend (see last post).
It's the midway point of the NFL and now's the time to get hot. And, lucky you, you go into Sunday betting your bookies' money because on Saturday you'll be getting the best bet you ever had in your life! But first, here's a little cautionary tale:
Seems there was this guy (whom I'll call Sonny) who was down on his luck. He goes to his friend, and excellent sports handicapper and says,"I'm screwed! I can't catch a winner to save my life! You got anything?"
The expert tells him,"As a matter-of-fact, I have the best bet, can't lose game of the century this week. As much as you want to win, that's as much as you should bet. The fix is in. The starting quarterback is going to be playing hurt, the back-up sucks, and even two of referees are in on the fix. Nobody knows about the injuries and the the line is so good that even without the fix, the favorite probably wouldn't cover. Bet the dog."
Sonny takes it all in then asks,"Great, so you got another play for a parlay?"
Think about it. I'm not saying there's a fix, but, I am telling you I have the best play of the year this Saturday. Notre Dame versus Navy. Navy is getting an unbelievable 14 points. Take out a second mortgage, forget everything else and bet Navy! Thank me latter.
You can warm-up by taking Clemson(-4.5) over Virgina Tech on Thursday and Tulsa (-14.5) over UTEP. Make it a parlay then bet the bundle on Navy. This is the start of the best year of your life!
Monday, October 23, 2006
DOWN, NOT OUT
(I’m writing this Sunday night with the anticipation of getting this posted Monday)
I was down for the week due the weather. I live in the hellhole known as Western New York and once again the weather took its toll knocking me off-line (and out of my apartment) for over a week. Having no way to check my figures, make lines, or post I had to skip week seven. Though this is only a guess, I think I may have missed some key plays. I think Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Green Bay are all underrated and, judging by today’s results they may have turned out to great plays…But I don’t know what the lines were. In any case, this turns out to be my “bye week”. For Monday night I make the game even, so, if you’re starved for action take the team getting the points if they get more then three. (Actually, if I can this get posted in time for you to make a play, I’ll also know the line and have a “pass or play” recommendation).
One other thing…AND THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!!!! This week I will be posting the absolute, best of the year, five star super lock of the season!!!!!! This is the play you wait all year for. The “money-in-the-bank, bet the rent, can’t lose, make your year” play. This is a totally no-bullshit pick that you have to play. If you don’t make this bet not only are you banned from ever visiting this site again…you are an asshole! Assuming I have the access, this super special, can’t lose pick will be up by Wednesday. See ya’ later.
I was down for the week due the weather. I live in the hellhole known as Western New York and once again the weather took its toll knocking me off-line (and out of my apartment) for over a week. Having no way to check my figures, make lines, or post I had to skip week seven. Though this is only a guess, I think I may have missed some key plays. I think Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Green Bay are all underrated and, judging by today’s results they may have turned out to great plays…But I don’t know what the lines were. In any case, this turns out to be my “bye week”. For Monday night I make the game even, so, if you’re starved for action take the team getting the points if they get more then three. (Actually, if I can this get posted in time for you to make a play, I’ll also know the line and have a “pass or play” recommendation).
One other thing…AND THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!!!! This week I will be posting the absolute, best of the year, five star super lock of the season!!!!!! This is the play you wait all year for. The “money-in-the-bank, bet the rent, can’t lose, make your year” play. This is a totally no-bullshit pick that you have to play. If you don’t make this bet not only are you banned from ever visiting this site again…you are an asshole! Assuming I have the access, this super special, can’t lose pick will be up by Wednesday. See ya’ later.
Thursday, October 12, 2006
FRIDAY COLLEGE
Two and one, baby...Two and one. What makes it sweet is my best bet crushed Temple easily covering the 44 points. I split on the other two plays (Virginia Tech sucks) . Betting this in the recommended fashion leaves you ahead which is even a better thing since Friday offers another Best Bet! Pittsburgh is only giving up 10.5 points (as I write this) so grab it while you can! The line will only get bigger. Pittsburgh will bury hapless Central Florida by twice as much! Take your winnings, double up, and have plenty of bullets for the weekend.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
READY FOR REAL BUSINESS
I'm overall 13-13 so far (see last post). My "unoffical" picks ended up 3-1. By this stage I've established some patterns, made some adjustments and I'm ready to roll. I'm also getting tired of posting the entire line when it isn't necessary. From here on in I'll be posting only my picks against the official line (as usually I'm using USA Today). I'm also breaking them into best bets and good bets. What's the difference? Depends on your bankroll. I'd recommend betting "X" on best bets and half of "X" on the good bets. I'll continue posting my overall record based on both the best and good bets(That would actually make me 16-14 to date, but, I'm not going to try and pad my meager performance to date). Track your own bankroll and profit.
I've made no comments concerning the last set of results since I just don't have the time for that this week. On with the NFL picks, best bets first(and I highlighted the pick in red):
Cincinnati +6 Tampa Bay:
I make the game even which gives Tampa a six point advantage.
San Diego +10 San Francisco:
Even after modifying their rating, San Fran still comes up 21.5 points worse the San Diego. That makes the Chargers a very good play.
Pittsburgh +7 Kansas City:
I still think KC is underrated and they haven't disappointed me yet. Take KC and the points.
Monday Night
Chicago +10 Arizona:
I'm not jumping on any bandwagons but I figure this line to be more like +20. The Bears continue to roll.
Now for the good picks:
Washington +9.5 Tennessee:
I'm not a big fan of either team, but my ratings make the Redskins 15 points better giving them a good enough edge to be playable.
Philadelphia +3 New Orleans:
Again, I'm not crazy about either team but I make Philly a touchdown better and still think the Saints are overrated.
There. You got six picks and I'm even telling you how to bet them.
I've made no comments concerning the last set of results since I just don't have the time for that this week. On with the NFL picks, best bets first(and I highlighted the pick in red):
Cincinnati +6 Tampa Bay:
I make the game even which gives Tampa a six point advantage.
San Diego +10 San Francisco:
Even after modifying their rating, San Fran still comes up 21.5 points worse the San Diego. That makes the Chargers a very good play.
Pittsburgh +7 Kansas City:
I still think KC is underrated and they haven't disappointed me yet. Take KC and the points.
Monday Night
Chicago +10 Arizona:
I'm not jumping on any bandwagons but I figure this line to be more like +20. The Bears continue to roll.
Now for the good picks:
Washington +9.5 Tennessee:
I'm not a big fan of either team, but my ratings make the Redskins 15 points better giving them a good enough edge to be playable.
Philadelphia +3 New Orleans:
Again, I'm not crazy about either team but I make Philly a touchdown better and still think the Saints are overrated.
There. You got six picks and I'm even telling you how to bet them.
College Thursday 12
Yeah, that's right...I'm going college. I'm dividing them up by best and good. Best are bold, good bets are red.
Clemson +44.5 Temple:
I hate college because of these gigantic spreads. Yet, I feel this one is really justified. Clemson should squash Temple!
Virginia Tech +2.5 Boston College:
I rate Virginia seven points better. Good enough difference for a college game.
Air Force +6 Colorado State:
These two come out even for me, so take Colorado and the points.
Build your bankroll Thursday with the college games. Use the same betting strategy here as you should for the pros.
Clemson +44.5 Temple:
I hate college because of these gigantic spreads. Yet, I feel this one is really justified. Clemson should squash Temple!
Virginia Tech +2.5 Boston College:
I rate Virginia seven points better. Good enough difference for a college game.
Air Force +6 Colorado State:
These two come out even for me, so take Colorado and the points.
Build your bankroll Thursday with the college games. Use the same betting strategy here as you should for the pros.
Sunday, October 08, 2006
SUNDAY NIGHT
I just finished watching the Cowboys getting beat by the Eagles and drop my record to 13-13 (Kansas City was a push). I expected my worst case to be 3 and 1 for the day. On the positive side, my college pick won and made me 11-9 for college. My best bets turned out to be 4-0 when Hawaii won outright. I learned a few things and have access to more info then I did before. If you've been playing along at home you're even, less the "vig". You're a little ahead on college if you played along.
My "unofficial" pro picks are 3-0 for the day with Pittsburgh playing in a few minutes. I can't make a solid pick for Monday night so I'm done for this weekend. The best is about to come! I'll be filing my college and pro picks separately, but now is the time to strike! Stay tuned!
My "unofficial" pro picks are 3-0 for the day with Pittsburgh playing in a few minutes. I can't make a solid pick for Monday night so I'm done for this weekend. The best is about to come! I'll be filing my college and pro picks separately, but now is the time to strike! Stay tuned!
Saturday, October 07, 2006
THE TIE BREAKER
Looks like I'm going to go 7-7 on the college. However, may I point out my three best bets (bottom of the last post) all won. To break this tie I'm going with Hawaii over Nevada. Hawaii's getting 14. In fact, I consider them a best bet.
THE REST OF THE DAY
There's way too many games scheduled and I'm not going to post them all. I'll run my numbers and post my picks giving you my line and the betting line. Unplayable games won't be posted:
Navy..........................................2..........................Air Force.......................Navy...................28
W.Virginia................................21.........................Mississippi.................... W.Virginia.........32
USC..........................................19..........................Washington...................USC........................25.5
Texas...................................... 4...........................Oklahoma.......................Texas...................44
Akron.......................................6...........................Cincinnati.......................Akron....................17
Kentucky................................5............................S.Carolina.......................S.Carolina............16.5
That's six plays, all of them I'd label as best bets. To clarify the picks:
Take Navy over Air Force.
W.Virginia over Mississippi.
USC over Washington.
Texas over Oklahoma.
Akron over Cincinnati.
S.Carolina over Kentucky.
Three plays stand out as especially good. Texas over Oklahoma, South Carolina over Kentucky and Navy over Air Force. If these three cover then I'm really on to something. If overall I'm 66% or better picking today I'll keep posting these. Otherwise, I'll just stay with the pros.
Navy..........................................2..........................Air Force.......................Navy...................28
W.Virginia................................21.........................Mississippi.................... W.Virginia.........32
USC..........................................19..........................Washington...................USC........................25.5
Texas...................................... 4...........................Oklahoma.......................Texas...................44
Akron.......................................6...........................Cincinnati.......................Akron....................17
Kentucky................................5............................S.Carolina.......................S.Carolina............16.5
That's six plays, all of them I'd label as best bets. To clarify the picks:
Take Navy over Air Force.
W.Virginia over Mississippi.
USC over Washington.
Texas over Oklahoma.
Akron over Cincinnati.
S.Carolina over Kentucky.
Three plays stand out as especially good. Texas over Oklahoma, South Carolina over Kentucky and Navy over Air Force. If these three cover then I'm really on to something. If overall I'm 66% or better picking today I'll keep posting these. Otherwise, I'll just stay with the pros.
Friday, October 06, 2006
HALF OF THE STORY
Things aren't looking real promising for my college picks (as I write this St. Louis has a 20 point lead in the fourth quarter. They need 10 more. But this college and anything can happen) but what the hell. I'll highlight the playable games in red. The first team is the favorite, the points they're giving, and the dog. Home team is in caps. My line is the last one...The caps don't mean a thing. By the way, these are the early games, I got up to half the 2:00 games. I need some sleep, I'll finish this off in the morning.
WISCONSIN............................... 20½............... Northwestern.................. WISCONSIN 8
Pittsburgh......................................7......................SYRACUSE...................... Pittsburgh 14
ILLINOISS..................................... 8...................... Indiana.............................. Indianaa 5.5
Clemson....................................... 16½..................WAKE FOREST................ Clemson 18.5
MIAMI (FLORIDA)................... 18½................. North Carolina...................MIAMI 30.5
GEORGIA TECH......................... 14..................... Maryland.......................... Maryland 1
OHIO STATE............................... 35.................... Bowling Green.................. OHIO STATE 14.5
Kent State.................................... 23½................. TEMPLE........................... Kent State 30
Ball State....................................... 4 .......................BUFFALO........................ Ball State 14
AUBURN.................................... 15½.................... Arkansas.......................... AUBURN 14
ALABAMA.................................. 28½................... Duke................................. ALABAMA 26.5
Oklahoma State............................ 2....................... Kansas State.................... Kansas State 2
Texas A&M................................... 2....................... KANSAS.......................... Texas A&M 3
BRIGHAM YOUNG................... 28....................... San Diego State........... BRIGHAM YOUNG 15.5
Rice................................................ 2........................ TULANE........................... Rice 6
So, here's the picks:
Wisconsin and Northwestern: Wisconsin is giving up too many points. Take Northwestern.
Iowa and Purdue: Take Purdue and the points. (I inadvertently deleted the line for this game...Purdue is getting 11).
Clemson and Wake Forest: Clemson is favored, my line is close enough. Take Clemson.
Miami and North Carolina: Miami's giving 18.5 I figure them much better. Take Miami and give the 18.5.
Georgia and Maryland. I have the game even, so take Maryland and the points.
Ohio and Bowling Green: Ohio's giving up 35 points. Way too many. Take Bowling Green.
Alabama and Duke: I'm close to the "official" line, so take the favorite,Alabama and give the points.
Brigham Young and San Diego: BYU is giving too many points. Take San Diego and the 28.
That's eight games, so far. And it looks like I'm gonna be 3-3 on picks since it doesn't look like Louisville is going to cover. Well, like I said, this has been a test week. Today 's picks will help me decide if I'm going to bother with college anymore.
WISCONSIN............................... 20½............... Northwestern.................. WISCONSIN 8
Pittsburgh......................................7......................SYRACUSE...................... Pittsburgh 14
ILLINOISS..................................... 8...................... Indiana.............................. Indianaa 5.5
Clemson....................................... 16½..................WAKE FOREST................ Clemson 18.5
MIAMI (FLORIDA)................... 18½................. North Carolina...................MIAMI 30.5
GEORGIA TECH......................... 14..................... Maryland.......................... Maryland 1
OHIO STATE............................... 35.................... Bowling Green.................. OHIO STATE 14.5
Kent State.................................... 23½................. TEMPLE........................... Kent State 30
Ball State....................................... 4 .......................BUFFALO........................ Ball State 14
AUBURN.................................... 15½.................... Arkansas.......................... AUBURN 14
ALABAMA.................................. 28½................... Duke................................. ALABAMA 26.5
Oklahoma State............................ 2....................... Kansas State.................... Kansas State 2
Texas A&M................................... 2....................... KANSAS.......................... Texas A&M 3
BRIGHAM YOUNG................... 28....................... San Diego State........... BRIGHAM YOUNG 15.5
Rice................................................ 2........................ TULANE........................... Rice 6
So, here's the picks:
Wisconsin and Northwestern: Wisconsin is giving up too many points. Take Northwestern.
Iowa and Purdue: Take Purdue and the points. (I inadvertently deleted the line for this game...Purdue is getting 11).
Clemson and Wake Forest: Clemson is favored, my line is close enough. Take Clemson.
Miami and North Carolina: Miami's giving 18.5 I figure them much better. Take Miami and give the 18.5.
Georgia and Maryland. I have the game even, so take Maryland and the points.
Ohio and Bowling Green: Ohio's giving up 35 points. Way too many. Take Bowling Green.
Alabama and Duke: I'm close to the "official" line, so take the favorite,Alabama and give the points.
Brigham Young and San Diego: BYU is giving too many points. Take San Diego and the 28.
That's eight games, so far. And it looks like I'm gonna be 3-3 on picks since it doesn't look like Louisville is going to cover. Well, like I said, this has been a test week. Today 's picks will help me decide if I'm going to bother with college anymore.
MORE ON COLLEGE PICKING
I went 1 and 1 yesterday and I'm not disappointed. That makes me a big deal 3-2. I did come to the conclusion to stay away from the "high school posing as college" games (Like TCU and Utah). It was only a test and, unless your an incredible degenerate, you don't want to bet those games anyway. From now on I'll stick to the higher profile games. There's only one tonight, Louisville and Middle Tennessee State. MTS is getting 30 points. My calculations come out to Louisville +27.5. Pretty close. My current theory is to take the favorite when the line is that close. So I'm taking Louisville minus the 30. That would be absurd if this was the pros, but the oddsmakers have been doing this longer then I have. I actually think this may be a good bet.
Thursday, October 05, 2006
WEEK FIVE ANALYSIS
I'm still hurting from last week but I'm going with my "correction" theory. The fact that I only generated four plays makes me think that may be so. Here's a closer look at them:
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Tampa hasn't been much of a scoring machine lately averaging only 9 points a game and 24 of their 27 came in their last game. They may have "found themselves". What makes this game questionable is the loss of Chris "I have no spleen" Simms. They find themselves with a rookie quarterback and playing on the road. On the otherhand, this is more or less a "must win" game for them and they may be more up for this game then the Saints.
The Saints are back in the Superdome and all the hoopla may be dying down. Besides, why are they only giving up 6 points to a rookie quarterback and a sputtering offense? I'm thinking Tampa will surprise them.
Kansas City at Arizona: Arizona is switching quarterbacks and KC seems to have adjusted to the loss of Trent Green. There's no question that their defense is looking pretty good and giving up a field goal doesn't seem like a lot to overcome. The Chiefs should win another one big.
Oakland at San Francisco: This is my favorite game of the week. San Francisco is giving points? Everybody's down on Oakland and maybe with good reason. I heard one of those radio sports guys declare that the Raiders won't win a game this year. I think he'll be wrong this week and Oakland gets its first win.
Dallas at Philadelphia: The Eagles seem to be everybody's favorite team this year. Dallas is mine. Besides having the best active coach in football, Dallas has a strong defense and T.O. should be near 100%, providing somebody locks his medicine cabinet. He'll be going into Philadelphia with a chip on his shoulder and Parcells will find a way to take advantage of that. Dallas should be giving the points in this one.
Now for the marginal game, Miami at new England. Technically, Miami is close to being a play, getting 9.5 points from New England. But, Miami has no offensive line! None! I even downgraded their rating (something I'm reluctant to do). If anyone can exploit that it's New England coach Bill Belichick. New England all but shut down Cincinnati last week and Miami lost to Huston! Nine and a half points sure doesn't look like much. All that being said I'd go with New England to win big. But, as I said earlier, it won't be an "official" pick.
Now here's some more thoughts in general. The betting lines aren't necessarily based on who's the superior team. Sure, obvious favorites have to give up points. The problem the oddsmakers have is giving up a realistic number of points so the "dogs" get enough action to balance the betting. Case in point, Indianapolis versus Tennessee. It's rare you'll see an 18.5 point spread. Maybe when one of your tackles stomp on the opposing centers face people will tend to look down your team. On the otherhand maybe it's a sign of passion that can spark your defense. Rookie quarterback Vince Young wasn't horrible and should be better for the experience. I make Indy a 20.5 point favorite and experience tells me when my line is that close to reality you take the "dog".
Another game that has me wondering is Pittsburgh at San Diego. San Diego is one of the "hot" teams now and it's just as trendy to question "Big Ben" since his motorcycle accident and appendectimy. I just don't think you ever give the Steelers points.
That's it. Four official picks and three action picks. In the early games Tampa is the pick. Make a few smaller wagers on the Tennessee and New England games. If you're looking good, plunge on the three later games and in the evening look for Pittsburgh to make things even better.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Tampa hasn't been much of a scoring machine lately averaging only 9 points a game and 24 of their 27 came in their last game. They may have "found themselves". What makes this game questionable is the loss of Chris "I have no spleen" Simms. They find themselves with a rookie quarterback and playing on the road. On the otherhand, this is more or less a "must win" game for them and they may be more up for this game then the Saints.
The Saints are back in the Superdome and all the hoopla may be dying down. Besides, why are they only giving up 6 points to a rookie quarterback and a sputtering offense? I'm thinking Tampa will surprise them.
Kansas City at Arizona: Arizona is switching quarterbacks and KC seems to have adjusted to the loss of Trent Green. There's no question that their defense is looking pretty good and giving up a field goal doesn't seem like a lot to overcome. The Chiefs should win another one big.
Oakland at San Francisco: This is my favorite game of the week. San Francisco is giving points? Everybody's down on Oakland and maybe with good reason. I heard one of those radio sports guys declare that the Raiders won't win a game this year. I think he'll be wrong this week and Oakland gets its first win.
Dallas at Philadelphia: The Eagles seem to be everybody's favorite team this year. Dallas is mine. Besides having the best active coach in football, Dallas has a strong defense and T.O. should be near 100%, providing somebody locks his medicine cabinet. He'll be going into Philadelphia with a chip on his shoulder and Parcells will find a way to take advantage of that. Dallas should be giving the points in this one.
Now for the marginal game, Miami at new England. Technically, Miami is close to being a play, getting 9.5 points from New England. But, Miami has no offensive line! None! I even downgraded their rating (something I'm reluctant to do). If anyone can exploit that it's New England coach Bill Belichick. New England all but shut down Cincinnati last week and Miami lost to Huston! Nine and a half points sure doesn't look like much. All that being said I'd go with New England to win big. But, as I said earlier, it won't be an "official" pick.
Now here's some more thoughts in general. The betting lines aren't necessarily based on who's the superior team. Sure, obvious favorites have to give up points. The problem the oddsmakers have is giving up a realistic number of points so the "dogs" get enough action to balance the betting. Case in point, Indianapolis versus Tennessee. It's rare you'll see an 18.5 point spread. Maybe when one of your tackles stomp on the opposing centers face people will tend to look down your team. On the otherhand maybe it's a sign of passion that can spark your defense. Rookie quarterback Vince Young wasn't horrible and should be better for the experience. I make Indy a 20.5 point favorite and experience tells me when my line is that close to reality you take the "dog".
Another game that has me wondering is Pittsburgh at San Diego. San Diego is one of the "hot" teams now and it's just as trendy to question "Big Ben" since his motorcycle accident and appendectimy. I just don't think you ever give the Steelers points.
That's it. Four official picks and three action picks. In the early games Tampa is the pick. Make a few smaller wagers on the Tennessee and New England games. If you're looking good, plunge on the three later games and in the evening look for Pittsburgh to make things even better.
TWO COLLEGE PICKS
I'm now 2-1 so far on the college picks. After reviewing yesterday's loss I may have detected a slight error in my current methodology. We'll see since there's two games tonight. In tonight's game, Florida State is giving NC State 10.5 points. I rate the game even so take NC with the points.
The other game is TCU getting 2.5 from Utah. I rate TCU higher that makes them the play.
Now 2 and 1 doesn't mean much but yesterday's loss may have pointed me in the right direction. I like tonight's picks and if I end up 4 and 1 I'm pretty sure I'm on to something. On the otherhand, if I end up 2 and 3 I'll still keep picking, but I'd be a little more tentative betting. Saturday's a big day, plenty of games and lots of opportunity and I'm looking for a way to make up for last week's NFL debacle.
The other game is TCU getting 2.5 from Utah. I rate TCU higher that makes them the play.
Now 2 and 1 doesn't mean much but yesterday's loss may have pointed me in the right direction. I like tonight's picks and if I end up 4 and 1 I'm pretty sure I'm on to something. On the otherhand, if I end up 2 and 3 I'll still keep picking, but I'd be a little more tentative betting. Saturday's a big day, plenty of games and lots of opportunity and I'm looking for a way to make up for last week's NFL debacle.
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
MORE COLLEGE?
Why not? I'm 2-0 as Tulsa covered the 5 points winning 20 to 6. Tonight it's Central Florida and Marshall with Florida getting 3. I'm figuring that's not nearly enough and figure Marshall to win by a couple of touchdowns (if not more). The line's gotta move so get down as soon as you can.
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
TIME TO REGROUP
I've calmed down and now it's time to regroup.
First, a summary of week 4: Won 1, Lost 8
Second, bragging about the wins: Not much to brag about. Kansas City crushed San Fransisco. Whoppee!!!!
Third, making excuses for the losers: I don't have the time or inclination to go through all my thoughts on this debacle. Let's just say some were close and some were lopsided. There is an upside (beside not getting blanked). I adjusted for Miami and the Jets. And (yeah, now I tell you) this wasn't totally unexpected. I experienced this same phenomena last year. A lot of picks in one day and the bulk of them were losers. If I was your stockbroker I'd cover my ass by calling it a "correction" in the market. This is sort of the same thing. Teams are starting to sort themselve out. For instance, it looks like Kurt Warner is finished, Seattle may as well change their name to Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks, and Green Bay has no discernable defense and needs a running game. I'll do the analysis later in the week.
TOTAL TO DATE: Won 12, Lost 11. Keeps my percentage on the plus (52%) side, but, I know...So what?
Meanwhile, here's the line (I now have the home team in caps):
The official line is first, my line is at the end. Bettable games are in red, and comments at the bottom.
INDIANAPOLIS................18½ ................... Tennessee................... Indianapolis.......... 20.5
NY GIANTS......................... 4½ ................... Washington................. NY Giants................ 4
MINNESOTA....................... 6½ .................. Detroit ......................... Minnesota................ 5
NEW ORLEANS................... 6....................... Tampa Bay.................. Tampa Bay............. 8.5
St. Louis................................. 2....................... GREEN BAY................ Green Bay.............. 2
NEW ENGLAND................. 9½ .................... Miami........................... New England......... 4.5
CHICAGO........................... 10½ ................... Buffalo.......................... Chicago................... 9.5
CAROLINA.......................... 8......................... Cleveland ......................Carolina.................. 12
JACKSONVILLE................. 7......................... NY Jets......................... Jacksonville............. 10
Kansas City........................... 3........................ ARIZONA.......................Kansas City.............. 9
SAN FRANCISCO.............. 3½ ..................... Oakland.......................... Oakland................... 6
PHILADELPHIA................ 2½...................... Dallas............................... Dallas...................... 6
SAN DIEGO......................... 3½ ..................... Pittsburgh...................... Pittsburgh............ 1.5
I'm down to four games this week. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week but they palyed Carolina just as tough as New Orleans did. Maybe it's the "home field " thing again but I'm taking Tampa.
Kansas City is doing fine without Green and, like I said Warner looks done. Take KC.
I know Oakland is looking pretty bad, but is San Fran' any better? Oakland.
Philly and Dallas. Dallas is my "surprise" team to win the NFC. If T.O. doesn't slash his wrists or something, I think they can handle the Eagles. Dallas wins.
For you action junkies, New England is on the cusp for me. I downgraded Miami but there's only a five point difference. It's a close call, but New England should blow them away (I'm not counting this as an "offical" pick).
On the pluse side I'm 1 and 0 in college. Tonight it's Tulsa versus Southern Miss. Tulsa is favored by 5. I make them 13.5 point favorites. Maybe Tulsa could bail you out...Or get you off to a good start.
First, a summary of week 4: Won 1, Lost 8
Second, bragging about the wins: Not much to brag about. Kansas City crushed San Fransisco. Whoppee!!!!
Third, making excuses for the losers: I don't have the time or inclination to go through all my thoughts on this debacle. Let's just say some were close and some were lopsided. There is an upside (beside not getting blanked). I adjusted for Miami and the Jets. And (yeah, now I tell you) this wasn't totally unexpected. I experienced this same phenomena last year. A lot of picks in one day and the bulk of them were losers. If I was your stockbroker I'd cover my ass by calling it a "correction" in the market. This is sort of the same thing. Teams are starting to sort themselve out. For instance, it looks like Kurt Warner is finished, Seattle may as well change their name to Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks, and Green Bay has no discernable defense and needs a running game. I'll do the analysis later in the week.
TOTAL TO DATE: Won 12, Lost 11. Keeps my percentage on the plus (52%) side, but, I know...So what?
Meanwhile, here's the line (I now have the home team in caps):
The official line is first, my line is at the end. Bettable games are in red, and comments at the bottom.
INDIANAPOLIS................18½ ................... Tennessee................... Indianapolis.......... 20.5
NY GIANTS......................... 4½ ................... Washington................. NY Giants................ 4
MINNESOTA....................... 6½ .................. Detroit ......................... Minnesota................ 5
NEW ORLEANS................... 6....................... Tampa Bay.................. Tampa Bay............. 8.5
St. Louis................................. 2....................... GREEN BAY................ Green Bay.............. 2
NEW ENGLAND................. 9½ .................... Miami........................... New England......... 4.5
CHICAGO........................... 10½ ................... Buffalo.......................... Chicago................... 9.5
CAROLINA.......................... 8......................... Cleveland ......................Carolina.................. 12
JACKSONVILLE................. 7......................... NY Jets......................... Jacksonville............. 10
Kansas City........................... 3........................ ARIZONA.......................Kansas City.............. 9
SAN FRANCISCO.............. 3½ ..................... Oakland.......................... Oakland................... 6
PHILADELPHIA................ 2½...................... Dallas............................... Dallas...................... 6
SAN DIEGO......................... 3½ ..................... Pittsburgh...................... Pittsburgh............ 1.5
Monday, Oct. 9
DENVER ................................4.......................... Baltimore........................ Denver................... 7I'm down to four games this week. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week but they palyed Carolina just as tough as New Orleans did. Maybe it's the "home field " thing again but I'm taking Tampa.
Kansas City is doing fine without Green and, like I said Warner looks done. Take KC.
I know Oakland is looking pretty bad, but is San Fran' any better? Oakland.
Philly and Dallas. Dallas is my "surprise" team to win the NFC. If T.O. doesn't slash his wrists or something, I think they can handle the Eagles. Dallas wins.
For you action junkies, New England is on the cusp for me. I downgraded Miami but there's only a five point difference. It's a close call, but New England should blow them away (I'm not counting this as an "offical" pick).
On the pluse side I'm 1 and 0 in college. Tonight it's Tulsa versus Southern Miss. Tulsa is favored by 5. I make them 13.5 point favorites. Maybe Tulsa could bail you out...Or get you off to a good start.
Monday, October 02, 2006
FUCK IT
On Monday night I thought maybe Green Bay would help me feel a little good about this weekend. At the half they had a two point led. There's three minutes left in the third quarter and now they trail by 15. Green Bay's done. I'm done. It looks like 1 and 8. Favre can pull off a miracle now and then but not tonight. Not when his defense blows. Besides, I'm feeling beat. Just had to get that out of my system. I already made my line and just have to wait for the offical line. The picks will be up later.
Sunday, October 01, 2006
YEAH, I'M PISSED,TOO
No sense in delaying the inevitable. I sucked this weekend. The Seattle-Chicago kickoff is about an hour away and I have no chance of salvaging a decent record. Detroit just fucked up their one point lead and won't cover. I've got one winner (Kansas City blew out San Francisco) and the rest of the games weren't even arguable, except for maybe Detroit. One and six is embarrassing to say the least. Even if I get my last two picks it's a losing weekend. I've already downgraded Miami and I'm giving serious consideration to upgrading the Jets. I'm not sure about that, yet.
Go Seattle!!!!!
Go Seattle!!!!!
WHY I HATE COLLEGE FOOTBALL
I decided to give it shot applying some of my handicapping techniques to college ball. Florida and Alabama was a nationally televised game and I found a site that gave access to some of the information that would help me analyze the game. I made Florida a two point favorite and the line had them at 15.5. In the pros I would have made that a solid pick. College is a whole different story. You'll never see 15 or 20 point spreads in the NFL (though I think you should). College bettors are rabid, emotional players and the oddsmakers know that. The lines move more often in college games so when I make today's pick 15.5 could be 16 tomorrow. That's what happened in the case of my pick. And the final score ended up Florida 28, Alabama 13. A winner, but by the slimmest margin. A win is a win I guess. When I tuned into the game, late in the second quarter, Alabama had a ten point led. Florida was driving, but I felt pretty good knowing they had half a game to make up a 26 point deficit. Sonofabitch if they didn't! That's what happens in these college games. It's too much emotion and too much inexperience from a bunch of kids just out of high school. You can't quantify that.
On the other hand, Nebraska was a twenty-something favorite over Kansas. They won in overtime by 7. How's that happen?
Anyway, I'm 1-0 for the college season and time and opportunity permitting I may try a few more. Meanwhile, I'm looking forward to a good day in the pros.
On the other hand, Nebraska was a twenty-something favorite over Kansas. They won in overtime by 7. How's that happen?
Anyway, I'm 1-0 for the college season and time and opportunity permitting I may try a few more. Meanwhile, I'm looking forward to a good day in the pros.
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