NFL Picks

I’ve been taking the wrong approach to handicapping football games. In the past I’ve been relying on a set of statistics I’ve been compiling all along to determine the best betting scenario. I now see how that was wrong. It worked okay at the beginning of the season since I had little to go on. I now look at handicapping football the same way I look at handicapping a horse race. Using figures to determine the outcome of football game is a lot like depending on speed figures for a race. They help, but there are a lot of other factors involved.
Case in point: Pittsburgh versus Oakland. On paper, giving the Raiders nine or so points seems reasonable. One of the statistically worst teams in the NFL going up against the Super Bowl champs. Why would I even think Oakland could win this? Because Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher was so worried about the game his was willing to risk Ben Roethlisberger when he has a perfectly good back-up quarterback in Charlie Batch. “Big Ben” suffered a concussion in his last game and, on paper Oakland shouldn’t have been that difficult to beat. At the time, the Steelers were 2-4 and needed to win this game. Ben “I don’t need a helmet” Rothlisberger has a huge ego. Four interceptions and a fumble later the Steelers were 2-5. Ben should never have played.
Football, unlike horse racing, is a team sport. Sure, there are key players, but one guy can screw up the results. I anticipated as much from Jake Plummer when I picked Indianapolis over Denver. Plummer could have been one of the all-time greats in the NFL but he’s a head case and now, he’s just too old. I look for the big meltdown anytime he might get off to a bad start. In fact, I’m looking for it this week.
By the same token, when a team plays like a team (take New England for example) they win. And they win often. Like the Bears who overcame six turnovers by their quarterback to beat Arizona a couple of weeks ago.
In horse racing you look for form and class, not just speed. The fastest horse doesn’t always win the race. It takes a smart (or just good) jockey and a competent trainer to win. In that regard, horses are more reliable, more predictable, and smell better then most NFL teams. I prefer handicapping animals to humans. Horses don’t have egos. They don’t get overconfident and, ultimately, you only have to consider the animal. The odds are determined by the betting crowd, and they are wrong 67% of the time.
In football, the odds makers don’t have to have any idea as to which team will win. They only have to persuade half the betting public to be wrong. That’s what the line reflects. Take this week:

Miami is playing Chicago in Chicago. Obviously, Chicago will win. There’s no reason to believe they won’t. They’re undefeated and playing at home. The real question is, will they win by more or less then two touchdowns? Miami hasn’t lost by more then 11 points in their last ten games. That includes some pretty good teams. At the beginning of the season they were everybody’s darlings to be a force, but now they’re 1-6. I’d make the line 13.5 points too if I was a bookie. The smart money will take the points, but there’s a lot of dumb money out there.

Now Atlanta and Detroit is a different approach. I’m surprised Detroit is only getting 5.5. I didn’t expect that one. Vick’s been playing well lately and Detroit…Well, Detroit sucks. They always seem to play close and end up losing. But, then again, Atlanta keeps it close but wins more. I severely question the five points. Atlanta should cover that. But, that’s too obvious. I’m suspicious. Five and a half is too low and that makes me want to back Detroit.

Dallas and Washington. Tony Romolotti (or whatever his name is) is the new kid on the block. Dallas beat Carolina. Washington is on a losing streak. Washington is getting three points in a game I figure them to win. I figure that because I see them blitzing the hell out of Tony and he has a lot to prove to me. I think his win over Carolina was a fluke.

The line has Tampa and New Orleans even (okay, Tampa’s getting a point). Again, this is one I don’t understand at all. I’ve either missed something big or my reasoning is really faulty. The Saints are 5-2 and Tampa’s 2-5. I thought at the beginning of the season Tampa was underrated and they proved to be good bets against the spread. But, I can’t see this one. It’ll be a fairly close game but New Orleans will win by more then a point. I think this line is being determined more by betting habits then reality.

In the later games you have Denver playing Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is giving 2 ½. I thought it would be other way around. Doesn’t matter. The Steelers defense will rattle Plummer early and Ben won’t make the same mistakes here. An easy cover (watch for Jake’s big blow-up).

San Diego is giving Cleveland 12 ½ points. Scary since Cleveland just beat the Jets and I think the Jets are a pretty good team. On the other hand when San Diego wins, they win convincingly. I think they can cover the spread.

The Colts and Patriots are a toss-up. I wouldn’t play this game. But, for the sake of discussion, if the line makers are giving points to the Patriots, I have to take them. New England wins the big games and the Colts choke in the clutch. If I’m wrong here, then this may be Indianapolis’ big year.

Monday night has Oakland once again getting nine points. This time from Seattle. No Shaun Alexander for the Seahawks, slim chance to win. Take the points.

Okay, that’s seven games with a “maybe” for New England/Indianapolis. If I’m even or better by game time I’m taking the Patriots.