NFL Picks

For the big game no one will see it’s a close call.

DALLAS 7 Green Bay: I make it Dallas –2 ½. And since I have a prejudice against the Cowboys I have to go with the Packers on this one. I won’t call them a Best Bet.

Speaking of prejudice, I now formally hate the Steelers after their pathetic performance against Miami and ruining my almost perfect week and making me 4-1. But, I did recommend the Eagles against the Patriots if I was hot (which I was).

Thanks to Steelers I’m now 39-30-1 for a 56% run. I will not be making them a pick either way for the next week or two since I’m now tainted. I will post my line but, regardless of the edge it’ll be a pass for me.

Gobble gobble! Two for two on Thanksgiving! Last week wasn’t all that great as it turned out I went 3-3 and (not counting Thanksgiving) I’m now 37-29-1…do the math to figure out where I stand at this point. I should note that if I went with my numbers and not my gut I would have been 4-2 since Seattle was the pick over Chicago according to my numbers. So, here’s the new trend; I’ll post the official line and then give my spread. After I make my comments you can pick:

CHICAGO 2 Denver: I actually have the line at minus four for the Bears and that makes this too close to play. Pass.

Tennessee 1 CINCINNATI: I make it Tennessee –5. Another close one, another pass.

JACKSONVILLE 7½ Buffalo: Surprisingly (to me) I rate this game JACKSONVILLE 9½ Buffalo. After the pummeling Buffalo took from the Patriots I expected a much bigger line. Pass.

KANSAS CITY 6 Oakland: I make this an even game so take the team getting the points. The Raiders are BEST BET ONE.

CLEVELAND 3½ Houston: Another even game, another line too close. Pass.

Seattle 3 ST LOUIS: I rate the Seahawks a two-touchdown favorite. I don’t like picking them, but the numbers say Seattle is BEST BET TWO.

N.Y GIANTS 7 Minnesota: I make it a little closer, making the Giants a 3½-point favorite. Not big enough for a play. Pass.

New Orleans 2 CAROLINA: I have the exact line so I have to pass here, too.

TAMPA BAY 3½ Washington: I make Tampa three points better then that at a minus 6 ½. Again, not big enough for a play.

ARIZONA 10½ San Francisco: I have the same line. Pass again.

SAN DIEGO 9½ Baltimore: I have the Chargers at –6 ½, so it’s another pass.

NEW ENGLAND 24 Philadelphia: Holy shit! Twenty-four points? Somebody took a beating last week and it wasn’t just the Bills. The big boys should have taken this off the board but they probably don’t want to lose the action. I make the line 23 and believe it or not a pass game.

MONDAY NIGHT

PITTSBURGH 16 Miami: I have the Steelers by three touchdowns. They make me cringe lately but given the dearth of picks they barely make it as BEST BET THREE.

That’s only three picks today, but don’t forget the two from Thursday. And, for the record, since the lines so big and so close for the Pats versus the Eagles, I’d take Philly if I were ahead.

I’ll recap my picks from last week tomorrow or Saturday. It’s Thanksgiving so I’m going to squeeze my plays in here today. The only thing I have to say about last Sunday (for now) is that I wasn’t kidding when I made the Patriots over the Bills as the BEST BET OF THE YEAR!

Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving and here are my lines versus the official line:

Green Bay 3½ DETROIT: I make it I make it Green Bay 10 over Detroit. The Lions usually show up for the big Thanksgiving Day game, but I’m thinking the Packers are the only team that can give the Patriots a game in the Super Bowel. It may not even be that close.

DALLAS 14 N.Y Jets: I figure Dallas is only 12 ½ points better. A close call, but the Jets are pumped after beating the Steelers and the Cowboys are ultimately at the mercy of their head coach. Close call, but if you want to play take the Jets.

Indianapolis 11½ ATLANTA: The Colts by 19 as I see it. Why is it the Jets are getting 14 and the Falcons only get 11 ½? I’m either dead-wrong or dead-right. The way I see it, the Colts are still the Colts and the Falcons are still hopeless.

Okay, Green Bay and Indianapolis are BEST BETS, and Dallas is a maybe. If you’re a wimp, take a teaser with the three teams or just take a parlay with the Packers and the Colts.

Happy Thanksgiving!!!!

Labels: football betting, football picks

No sooner do I post my season record then I have my FIRST losing week! 2-4, dragging me down to 34-26-1. I’m down to 57%, maybe this week….

JACKSONVILLE 3 San Diego: I like the Chargers by a point but who knows, maybe they won’t get six interceptions this week. Pass

INDIANAPOLIS 14½ Kansas City: Manning may have figured who he’s supposed to throw to this week so I make this line pretty fair. Pass

MINNESOTA 5½ Oakland: The Vikings are +2, making this a pass.

Cleveland 3 BALTIMORE: This line is dead on as far as I concerned. Pass.

Pittsburgh 9 N.Y JETS: The Steelers bounce back from last week’s embarrassment and the Jets, well, they’re still the Jets. BEST BET ONE.

Tampa Bay 3 ATLANTA: I can’t believe this line. It’s one of those lines that makes me suspicious, but I make the Bucs BEST BET TWO.

CINCINNATI 3 Arizona: Looks about right, pass.

PHILADELPHIA 10 Miami: Perfect line, pass.

New England 15 BUFFALO: When’s the last time you saw a 15 point line? Guess they didn’t want to make the more realistic 21. New England shows no mercy, and the Bills have not only conceded this game by going with the aptly named Lossman, but they have no running game. The Patriots will score at will and will have a lot of chances to do so. The Bills may get a field goal and a special teams score. By the middle of the second quarter the Pats will have this covered and be coasting from there. I’m a lot more “wordy” on this one but I feel the need to be since I’m always reluctant to pick a Bills game, but this may be the best bet of all time. BEST BET THREE.

DALLAS 11 Washington: Looks about right. Pass.

New Orleans PK HOUSTON: Slight edge to the Saints. Pass

GREEN BAY 10 Carolina: Like the Packers here, but not enough. Pass.

N.Y Giants 2½ DETROIT: Pretty much an even game. Pass.

ST Louis 3 SAN FRANCISCO: The Rams are on a roll with their first win, and the 9’ers looked pathetic against Seattle last week. I make this game even, but, due to lack of selections and my “gut” feeling, I’m making St. Louis BEST BET FOUR!

SEATTLE 5 Chicago: I want very much to take Chicago here, but my numbers say Seattle. It’s teams like this that make me hesitate, but the Seahawks have the talent to win this. Caution! I’m going, once again, with my gut. I’m making the Bears BEST BET FIVE!

Monday Night

DENVER 2½ Tennessee: I’m hot on Monday’s so the Titans are BEST BET SIX.

I actually only came up with four best bets off my numbers, but the other two are probably the Best of the best so I’m looking forward to 6-0. And I’m not kidding when I make New England one of the best bets of the year.

Labels: football betting, football picks

Last week I went 4-2, not bad. Since the beginning of the season I’m 32-22-1. That’s about a 60% wins. I’m not retiring to Vegas at the end of the season, but I am slightly ahead of the game. Maybe this week will be the big one…..

TENNESSEE	4½	Jacksonville	I make this line about the same.
PASS, with a slight lean toward the Titans.
KANSAS CITY	3	Denver	I make the Chiefs a +9
This is BEST BET ONE. I’m uncomfortable with it only because I still can’t figure out the Broncos. But I’m going with my numbers.
Buffalo	3	MIAMI	I make the line Buffalo -7
PASS: Not big enough for a Best Bet, but I like the Bills here.
PITTSBURGH	9½	Cleveland	Believe it or not, I like the Steelers by 16
BEST BET TWO: I can’t believe Cleveland beat me by a point last week. The Steelers are back in form and Cleveland gets a reality check.
NEW ORLEANS	11½	St. Louis	The Saints by two touchdowns.
PASS: But New Orleans has a slight edge on the line.
CAROLINA	4	Atlanta	Can’t argue with this line.
PASS: Same line I’d make this game.
WASHINGTON	3	Philadelphia	I make this game even
PASS: What can I say here? I make this game even and if I played it I’d take the points.
GREEN BAY	6½	Minnesota	This line is too close to call.
PASS: I wrote Brett of last year, and boy was I wrong. That half point makes me lean toward the Vikings.
BALTIMORE	4	Cincinnati	I make the Ravens -1
PASS: This is a reluctant PASS since I can see the Bengals winning this one.
Chicago	3	OAKLAND	I have the Raiders at -3
BEST BET THREE: This doesn’t actually fall into my BEST BET category, but my plays are thin this week, and I can see the Raiders winning this one.
Dallas	1	N.Y. GIANTS	Dallas –5
BEST BET FOUR: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it now, I’m not a big Cowboy fan, but they’re going to win this, and it’ll be by more then a point.
ARIZONA	1	Detroit	This line is dead on.
PASS: One of those “who knows” games. Could go either way.
Indianapolis	3½	SAN DIEGO	The Colts by 12
BEST BET FIVE: This may be the Best of the Best. The Chargers maybe finding themselves, but the Colts will be bouncing back from last week BIG TIME!

I’m not even going to try and explain what happened with this new format. I tried something new and it didn’t work out so well. Any way, I hate picking the Seahawks due to the ineptitude of their coaching, but they should be able to cover this for BEST BET SIX (Hint to Holmgren: Run the ball).

Last week I was 3-2 (another winning edge, but nothing to gloat about) so I guess it’s about time I get a little more daring. Let’s get to it:

Washington 3½ NEW YORK JETS: Tempted as I am to take Washington, I’m calling this a pass.


KANSAS CITY 2 Green Bay: I can’t argue with success. The Packers are hot and I see them winning here. BEST BET ONE.

TAMPA BAY 3½ Arizona: This line looks about right to me. That makes it a close call and a pass, but I like the Bucs.

TENNESSEE 4½ Carolina: This line is one of those goofy spreads. Why not 3 ½? Could it be they want you to think twice about taking the Titans? My own calculations make this line just about right, but my “gut” says take the Titans for BEST BET TWO.

ATLANTA 3 San Francisco: I never thought I’d see the Falcons favored over anyone, but here it is. And here I am agreeing with it! Pass.

NEW ORLEANS 3½ Jacksonville: I liked New Orleans when the season started but they’re too unpredictable. Same for the Jags. I have to pass this one, too.

DETROIT 3 Denver: The NFL is made up of the Pats, the Colts, and everybody else. The Lions have become a force to be reckoned with among the mediocre. I have them as a –6, not good enough for a bet. Pass.

Cincinnati 1 BUFFALO: The Bills are hot, the Bengals are underachieving. It is this close a call; I’m going to pass.

San Diego 7 MINNESOTA: Maybe the Chargers have found themselves. Maybe not. I wouldn’t make them more then a touchdown over the Vikings. Pass.

CLEVELAND 2 Seattle: Makes no sense to me. Then again, I think the Seahawks are being victimized more by coaching then by their opponents. But Cleveland? The Seahawks win this one. BEST BET THREE!

New England 5 INDIANAPOLIS: The perfect line for the best game of the year? Maybe so, but the Pats aren’t taking any prisoners and they’re steamrolling everyone. This game could be a blow out either way and I’m going with the Patriots. BEST BET FOUR.

OAKLAND 3 Houston: Two teams I have a hard time with. Too close to call. Pass.


Dallas 3 PHILADELPHIA: I have no respect for Wade Phillips, but I respect the Cowboys. I have even less respect for the Eagles. BEST BET FIVE is Dallas.



PITTSBURGH 9 Baltimore: this line looks fair. Baltimore is struggling, and the Steelers have something to prove and need to get rolling. They can cover and, since my Monday record has been pretty good why not make the Steelers BEST BET SIX?


I anticipated a leaner day when it comes to best bets, and I’m a little surprised I came up with six. Strictly speaking the TENNESSEE –Carolina game is a “gut” call, but there’s a lot of thinks to like about it from a betting perspective. I’m sticking with them all.

Labels: football betting, football picks