NFL Picks

I've calmed down and now it's time to regroup.
First, a summary of week 4: Won 1, Lost 8
Second, bragging about the wins: Not much to brag about. Kansas City crushed San Fransisco. Whoppee!!!!
Third, making excuses for the losers: I don't have the time or inclination to go through all my thoughts on this debacle. Let's just say some were close and some were lopsided. There is an upside (beside not getting blanked). I adjusted for Miami and the Jets. And (yeah, now I tell you) this wasn't totally unexpected. I experienced this same phenomena last year. A lot of picks in one day and the bulk of them were losers. If I was your stockbroker I'd cover my ass by calling it a "correction" in the market. This is sort of the same thing. Teams are starting to sort themselve out. For instance, it looks like Kurt Warner is finished, Seattle may as well change their name to Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks, and Green Bay has no discernable defense and needs a running game. I'll do the analysis later in the week.
TOTAL TO DATE: Won 12, Lost 11. Keeps my percentage on the plus (52%) side, but, I know...So what?
Meanwhile, here's the line (I now have the home team in caps):

The official line is first, my line is at the end. Bettable games are in red, and comments at the bottom.

INDIANAPOLIS................18½ ................... Tennessee................... Indianapolis.......... 20.5

NY GIANTS......................... 4½ ................... Washington................. NY Giants................ 4

MINNESOTA....................... 6½ .................. Detroit ......................... Minnesota................ 5

NEW ORLEANS................... 6....................... Tampa Bay.................. Tampa Bay............. 8.5

St. Louis................................. 2....................... GREEN BAY................ Green Bay.............. 2

NEW ENGLAND................. 9½ .................... Miami........................... New England......... 4.5

CHICAGO........................... 10½ ................... Buffalo.......................... Chicago................... 9.5

CAROLINA.......................... 8......................... Cleveland ......................Carolina.................. 12

JACKSONVILLE................. 7......................... NY Jets......................... Jacksonville............. 10

Kansas City........................... 3........................ ARIZONA.......................Kansas City.............. 9

SAN FRANCISCO.............. 3½ ..................... Oakland.......................... Oakland................... 6

PHILADELPHIA................ 2½...................... Dallas............................... Dallas...................... 6

SAN DIEGO......................... 3½ ..................... Pittsburgh...................... Pittsburgh............ 1.5

DENVER ................................4.......................... Baltimore........................ Denver................... 7


I'm down to four games this week. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week but they palyed Carolina just as tough as New Orleans did. Maybe it's the "home field " thing again but I'm taking Tampa.
Kansas City is doing fine without Green and, like I said Warner looks done. Take KC.
I know Oakland is looking pretty bad, but is San Fran' any better? Oakland.
Philly and Dallas. Dallas is my "surprise" team to win the NFC. If T.O. doesn't slash his wrists or something, I think they can handle the Eagles. Dallas wins.
For you action junkies, New England is on the cusp for me. I downgraded Miami but there's only a five point difference. It's a close call, but New England should blow them away (I'm not counting this as an "offical" pick).

On the pluse side I'm 1 and 0 in college. Tonight it's Tulsa versus Southern Miss. Tulsa is favored by 5. I make them 13.5 point favorites. Maybe Tulsa could bail you out...Or get you off to a good start.