NFL Picks

I'm still hurting from last week but I'm going with my "correction" theory. The fact that I only generated four plays makes me think that may be so. Here's a closer look at them:

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Tampa hasn't been much of a scoring machine lately averaging only 9 points a game and 24 of their 27 came in their last game. They may have "found themselves". What makes this game questionable is the loss of Chris "I have no spleen" Simms. They find themselves with a rookie quarterback and playing on the road. On the otherhand, this is more or less a "must win" game for them and they may be more up for this game then the Saints.
The Saints are back in the Superdome and all the hoopla may be dying down. Besides, why are they only giving up 6 points to a rookie quarterback and a sputtering offense? I'm thinking Tampa will surprise them.

Kansas City at Arizona: Arizona is switching quarterbacks and KC seems to have adjusted to the loss of Trent Green. There's no question that their defense is looking pretty good and giving up a field goal doesn't seem like a lot to overcome. The Chiefs should win another one big.
Oakland at San Francisco: This is my favorite game of the week. San Francisco is giving points? Everybody's down on Oakland and maybe with good reason. I heard one of those radio sports guys declare that the Raiders won't win a game this year. I think he'll be wrong this week and Oakland gets its first win.
Dallas at Philadelphia: The Eagles seem to be everybody's favorite team this year. Dallas is mine. Besides having the best active coach in football, Dallas has a strong defense and T.O. should be near 100%, providing somebody locks his medicine cabinet. He'll be going into Philadelphia with a chip on his shoulder and Parcells will find a way to take advantage of that. Dallas should be giving the points in this one.

Now for the marginal game, Miami at new England. Technically, Miami is close to being a play, getting 9.5 points from New England. But, Miami has no offensive line! None! I even downgraded their rating (something I'm reluctant to do). If anyone can exploit that it's New England coach Bill Belichick. New England all but shut down Cincinnati last week and Miami lost to Huston! Nine and a half points sure doesn't look like much. All that being said I'd go with New England to win big. But, as I said earlier, it won't be an "official" pick.

Now here's some more thoughts in general. The betting lines aren't necessarily based on who's the superior team. Sure, obvious favorites have to give up points. The problem the oddsmakers have is giving up a realistic number of points so the "dogs" get enough action to balance the betting. Case in point, Indianapolis versus Tennessee. It's rare you'll see an 18.5 point spread. Maybe when one of your tackles stomp on the opposing centers face people will tend to look down your team. On the otherhand maybe it's a sign of passion that can spark your defense. Rookie quarterback Vince Young wasn't horrible and should be better for the experience. I make Indy a 20.5 point favorite and experience tells me when my line is that close to reality you take the "dog".

Another game that has me wondering is Pittsburgh at San Diego. San Diego is one of the "hot" teams now and it's just as trendy to question "Big Ben" since his motorcycle accident and appendectimy. I just don't think you ever give the Steelers points.

That's it. Four official picks and three action picks. In the early games Tampa is the pick. Make a few smaller wagers on the Tennessee and New England games. If you're looking good, plunge on the three later games and in the evening look for Pittsburgh to make things even better.