NFL Picks

This week I've come up with nine playable games. I suspected as much since the oddsmakers adjust their line according to public sentiment more then the reality of the game. Here's a closer look and some thoughts:

I have Atlanta and Arizona as basically even (Atlanta has a one point edge). I'd admit, I'm bitter because they ruined my perfect weekend but I resisted the temptation to adjust their rating after such a pathetic display on Monday. Meanwhile Kurt Warner had a horrible outing but he's a pro and not a hotdog like Vick. I think he rebounds and the 8 points Arizona is getting is way too many. Arizona looks like a very solid play.

The Jets are getting nine points from Indy. Indianapolis is a scoring machine and New York isn't. I like Indy by twice as much and stick by that.

Miami versus Huston. Huston is my worst rated team. Brunell set a passing record against them after coming off a dismal performance against Dallas. I watched the game and it seemed to me he'd completely lost it. Looks like Huston deserves their worst rating and Miami may be getting their act together. Besides Culpepper is better then Brunell, isn't he? In any event four points isn't enough. Miami should get their first big win.

Minnesota and Buffalo. Buffalo's my "home team" and I hate picking against them. I hardly expected them to be favored. Consider this, Willis McGahee ran for 150 yards and Buffalo still lost to the Jets! There's something wrong there. Minnesota looks like they'll win.

New Orleans is coming off a high with their big home opener. Carolina should be a playoff team and struggled against Tennessee. Both teams are due for a reality check. Carolina should pound them.

Kansas City and San Francisco is a questionable game despite the spread. Trent Green is again out and Frisco seems to playing decently. On the otherhand, KC fought Denver to the bitter end without their starting quarterback. Good teams win and mediocre teams lose. KC is better and giving up a touchdown doesn't seem like a lot for them to overcome. Go with Kansas City.

I have Detroit and St. Louis even. I don't think much of Detroit but then again, I don't think much of St.Louis, either. I'll take whoever gets the points in this match-up. It's Detroit getting 5.5.

Seattle and Chicago is one of those games I don't understand. Both teams are unbeaten. Maybe Chicago is giving points because they're at home? Maybe Shaun Alexander sitting out gives Chicago the edge? Maybe Chicago's top rated defense gives them the edge? I dunno. Alexander hasn't been all that effective in the first three games, the Bears haven't really played anybody that tough, and I don't put a lot of stock in home field advantage. Maybe I'm missing something big, but I see Seattle going home 4-0.

On Monday night Green Bay goes to Philadelphia with a 10.5 point led. While I don't envision the Packers winning I think the game will be a lot closer. Take Green Bay and the points.

Now, a word about statistics. My current stats give me 79% win percentage (11 out of 14). Pretty impressive for football. After 3 weeks of a 17 week season that may not mean much. On the otherhand, if this trend holds up I should go 7 for 9 this weekend. If I really want to go out on a limb and extrapolate the preceding three weeks into this fourth week, I should win 8 of the 9. And if my aunt was built differently she'd be my uncle.
Realistically I'm basing my selections on what I consider to be pretty reliable statistics and a bit of observation and analysis. The fact that I'm better then 50% (and you) indicates that so far I have some sound principles at work. Under strictly random picking I should do no worse then 4-5 this week. Not healthy for a bankroll but that would make me a sound 15-8 for the first four weeks (65%). On paper that still looks good.
To sum up, at this point I have confidence in my methodology and anticipate a minimum of six winners. If only I could determine exactly which ones they'll be!