NFL Picks

When you’re firmly established as the best football handicapper in the world, word spreads and the odds makers get nervous. Proof positive? Not coincidentally, the “official” lines match my lines with only a few scant exceptions and only two overtly useful one. The marginal differences are most likely due to bettor patterns, road versus home and other irrelevant handicapping factors, but not irrelevant to line making. A more thorough analysis will follow, but first, take note of the uncanny accuracy of the line making:

THURSDAY

(I know it’s too late to post this but it wasn’t playable and I detest the whole concept of Thursday night games solely to benefit the NFL network. As far as I’m concerned, unless it’s Thanksgiving, Thursday night football is a travesty).

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 10 Oakland Raiders

(SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 8 ½…No Play)

SUNDAY

(The real games)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 14 Cincinnati Bengals

(INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 14…No play)

CHICAGO BEARS 7 Jacksonville Jaguars

(CHICAGO BEARS 4 ½ …No Play)

GREEN BAY PACKERS 6 Houston Texans

(GREEN BAY PACKERS 5 … No Play)

TENNESSEE 14 Cleveland

(TENNESSEE 13 ½ …No Play)

Minnesota 9 ½ DETROIT

(Minnesota 17 ½ …BEST BET)

(BALTIMORE 5 Washington

(BALTIMORE 9 ½ …No Play)

NY GIANTS 7 Philadelphia

(NY GIANTS 6…No Play)

NEW ORLEANS 3 Atlanta

(Atlanta 1 ½ …No Play)

NY Jets 3 SAN FRANCISCO

(NY Jets 10…BEST BET)

BUFFALO 1 Miami

(BUFFALO pk Miami…No Play)

DENVER 9 Kansas City

(DENVER 8…No Play)

ARIZONA 14 ST Louis

(ARIZONA 18…No Play)

PITTSBURGH 3 Dallas

(PITTSBURGH 5…No Play)

New England 4 SEATTLE

(New England 9 ½ …No Play)

MONDAY NIGHT

CAROLINA 3 Tampa Bay

(Tampa Bay 2…No Play)

As I said above, this is a tough week as far as quantity. So, taking the conservative approach, there are only two Best Bets this time around. The oddest thing is the Minnesota/Detroit line. I had a little trouble finding it. And can’t believe it’s only 9 ½ points. Logic dictates it should be 14. If you can get 9 ½ take it as your “absolute, four star, break open the piggy bank, mortgage the house lock of the week”.

If your bookmaker isn’t stoned and only offers 10 or more, you still have the New York Jets game to fall back on, though it doesn’t qualify as an “absolute, four star, break open the piggy bank, mortgage the house lock of the week”, but does make it a Best Bet. If that’s not good enough to satisfy you’re desire to gamble, Baltimore is the pick over Washington, Atlanta over New Orleans and Tampa Bay over Carolina. New England over Seattle is almost a Best Bet.

There are only two truly bettable games this weekend and that’s all I can recommend for the real plays. And that’s all I’ll count since it’s all about winning and not the action.

Labels: football betting, football picks