NFL Picks

The lines are official and shouldn't be much of a surprise. They are adjusted from reality to reflect the public's point-of-view.

My numbers are calculated based on statistics but they do appear shaky at times since they're based on regular season play and not exclusively on quality opponents. So for the current playoff games I've ranked both games as even. That would more-or-less mandate playing the "dog". Simple enough but I'm not taking that route. If you want to play it conservatively go for it. I see things a little differently.

Indianapolis 7 1/2 New York: I despise the Colts giving away their last two games of the regular season as much as anyone. Those guys are paid millions of dollars to entertain us and then they decide to flaunt their wealth, laugh at the very people paying them, and expect accolades when they do what they're supposed to. I'd love to see the Colts whipped like mules but it ain't gonna happen. Fact is, they went through the entire season undefeated and won every game they wanted to. Once they safely put away the Jets the last time they played them they gave themselves a break. Their finale was against the Bills and not even a diehard Bills fan would have expected a victory if the real Colts were on the field. Meanwhile, the Jets backed their way in to the playoffs and are living the dream. It's about to turn into a nightmare. Rate New York's marvelous defense any way you want, they haven't faced much of Payton Manning and they are about to be introduced to a guy who has something to prove. They managed to beat the self-destructive Chargers which can only be explained by "karma" or something. They can't depend on flubbed field goals here since the Colts will be finding the end zone every chance they get. It comes down to Payton Manning vs Mark Sanchez. Where's your money going? If the Jets are within 7 1/2 points after Indianapolis' second position it'll be a minor miracle. this game is a blowout unless the Colts decide to rest themselves after half-time. The Colts are a BEST BET!

New Orleans 3 1/2 Minnesota: Fair enough. The line dropped half-a-fucking-point since betting opened but that's a meaningless move. Four is a stupid number anyway. Like me, a good portion of the betting public envision a fairy tale season for Brett Farve. The guy is good. And I'd love to see him square off against Manning in the Super Bowl. But football is a team sport and it's not going to be Farve vs Brees throwing a football 30 yards through a tire hanging from a tree limb. The Saints can score and if the Vikings have to play "catch-up" anything can happen except a victory. On the other hand, New Orleans can be slow starters and Minnesota has shown signs of being the "Purple People Eaters" of long ago. This is definitely a coaches game and I'm willing to bet that Brad Childress has maybe enough brains to put the play calling in to Brett's hands and the old "gun slinger" will be anything but conservative. A quick, early score and lead makes the Vikings winners and at the end that half-point may be just enough to cash a winning wager. I'll take the Vikings since anything but a complete collapse will make them losers against the spread.

So here's my official summation: The Colts are a BEST BET. Easily. I'm going with the Vikings but I can't make them a Best Bet. It'll be close or a complete blow-out depending on the intelligence of the respective coaches. Neither team can afford to come-from-behind in this contest. I'll bet Farve is smart enough to realize that.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks, Playoff picks

The useless Packers were an error away from giving me a satisfying 2-0 record for the initial playoff week and they managed to screw me. Because they played down to the level they've demonstrated all year not only is their season over but the losers left me at 1-1. If Rodgers could have completed the most important pass of his career I'd be be a golden 2-0! Instead Green Bay has stamped themselves as the least likely team to ever go anywhere meaningful in the future. Rodgers simply isn't a big time quarterback. Bret would have connected in OT. As much as I doubt the integrity of any NFL team these days I'm chalking this loss up to the incompetence of a soon-to-be proven mediocre QB. What the hell, I was 1-1. No harm, no foul.

New England is/was totally dependent on Brady and that was a proven fact in their loss. I didn't trust him or Baltimore's inability to play at any level of consistency and passing that game was wise. Now there's a new week and things are looking more reliable. Here goes:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 7 Arizona Cardinals: A very fair number. It's overtly obvious that the Cardinals have no defense and the Saints can score like motherfuckers. I make them seven point favorites, too. And that ends up making this game a pass.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 6½ Baltimore Ravens: I hate the whole "1/2" point thing. Sure, Manning can be unbelievable but Baltimore has something more going for them. They just humiliated the Patriot's. My numbers say the Ravens should win by 2 1/2 and if Payton doesn't play error free ball this could be just as ugly. I have to go with the Ravens here. Even if the Colts manage to win this one, it won't be by much. Baltimore is a BEST BET!


MINNESOTA VIKINGS 3 Dallas Cowboys: No matter how you look at this game, it's not a 3 point line. My numbers make it a three point game and I can't accept that. Favre either answers the call and dominates, or Dallas is the truly "miracle" team of the year and squashes them. It'll come down to coaching and play calling and I have very little confidence in Phillips. From a purely statistical level I have to pass on this one.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 7 New York Jets: No one is more surprised then me that the Jets have gotten this far. And by no one I mean there is not a human being on the planet earth who is more surprised then my self that the New York Jets actual made the play-offs. Having said that, my numbers make this an even game. That means I have to support the Jets here. With only four games this weekend I have to take what I can get and the Jets have an edge. The New York Jets are a Best Bet!

Time for the caveat. There's only four games to play this weekend and you can't count on any of them. My usual, highly reliable statistics once again point to a major parlay. Baltimore-New York. Two "dogs" getting too many points. At this stage of the playoffs I have to believe (or what's the use of even trying to bet) that there's no "fix". So go with that.

If you're a major action junkie take this in to consideration: The Cardinals were totally inept when it came to holding back the Packers and should have/could have lost the game. Even if Kurt Warner has another historic day the Cardinals' defense is so porous that Brees will eat them up. He's no Aaron "Loser" Rodgers here. The Saints will slice-and-dice the "Cards" and destroy them. The seven points is actually a joke if both teams play to their overt potential. I'm liking the Saints here by a whole bunch!

The Colts were on a winning streak and could have made history but they folded for any number of disgusting reasons to allow the Jets to make the playoffs. Idiot coaching like that fails to take in to account the fact that every team in the NFL is only a few plays away from beating any other team in the league. maybe Manning can play a flawless game but I wouldn't bet on it.

This game is strictly from my heart. I really want to see Brett Farve make total fools of every single sports analyst that wrote him off at the beginning of the year. Fuck them and their way too late realization that were totally wrong. The Vikings are a machine and, to put in simple terms, the Cowboys are just plain lucky they got this far. Beating the hapless Eagles two weeks in a row means nothing. The meager three point line is proof of that.The Cowboys are the underdogs they deserve to be and that 3 points is just enough to lull the stupid bettors in to making a wager on "America's Team". Personally, I'm taking my winnings from Baltimore and putting it all on the Vikings. Romo has seen his best days and even a better day won't be nearly enough against one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

As I said before, I'm stunned that the Jets even made the playoffs. Maybe they're here in part to the stupidity of the Colts but they are here and have a lot of things in their favor. The Chargers are only in it because of their schedule. It may be close, and a touchdown may be the difference, but the Jets are actually playing inspired football. I have no idea what San Diego is doing. Nobody cared about them during the regular season. I'm trusting my numbers here since I think either team is a fluke to begin with.

So, just to clarify: Baltimore is a BEST BET given the spread. Losing this game would actually be a surprise.

The Jets will be in it all the way and seven points is too many to give them and they are a BEST BET, too.

You can sweep the whole weekend by taking the Saints, the Ravens, the Vikings, and the Jets. My stats will be based on the Ravens and the Jets. My superior insight in to the NFL will be obvious. The only decision you need to make is to play it safe or go for the big money.

Labels: football betting, football picks, Playoff picks

Obviously if the was actually honesty and integrity in the NFL this week's lines would be obvious but, surprise surprise, things aren't as they should be in an honest world. Don't even try and hint that the NFL isn't mightily influenced by the gambling world. This weekend's lines are proof positive. Nobody's throwing any games or shaving points this week. This stuff is for real. So here goes:

CINCINNATI BENGALS 2½ New York Jets: Who didn't see this coming? Didn't the Jets just stomp the Bengals last week? How come they're getting points now? The Jets don't impress me but Cincinnati rolled-over so badly and showed such a total disregard for themselves and the game that there's no chance they can rebound. They'll fold up again since quitting has firmly been implanted in their nature. Sure, they took the money, cashed a few bets themselves, but now they're covered in loser stink. I make the Jets a 6 point favorite and a Best Bet!

DALLAS COWBOYS 4 Philadelphia Eagles: See the above. The Eagles are the Cowboys bitches and were beaten mercilessly last week by them. The line is based in some reality but the Cowboys will once again beat them. My gut says it'll be even more embarrassing then last week, but my numbers say this is a pass.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 3 Baltimore Ravens: I don't care who's hurt, etc. this is a dead even game. Play it at your own risk. The Patriots are Brady and the Ravens are as inconsistent as they come. Pass.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 1 Green Bay Packers: The "Pack" pounded the crap out of the "Cards" last time. No reason at all why Green Bay won't win by at least seven and that makes them a Best Bet.

Two out of four games are Best Bets. I suggest a parlay to maximize your profits. The teams that played it safe and folded will find they overrated themselves and will be reliving last week's nightmare. Don't be fooled.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks, Playoff picks