NFL Picks

The lines are official and shouldn't be much of a surprise. They are adjusted from reality to reflect the public's point-of-view.

My numbers are calculated based on statistics but they do appear shaky at times since they're based on regular season play and not exclusively on quality opponents. So for the current playoff games I've ranked both games as even. That would more-or-less mandate playing the "dog". Simple enough but I'm not taking that route. If you want to play it conservatively go for it. I see things a little differently.

Indianapolis 7 1/2 New York: I despise the Colts giving away their last two games of the regular season as much as anyone. Those guys are paid millions of dollars to entertain us and then they decide to flaunt their wealth, laugh at the very people paying them, and expect accolades when they do what they're supposed to. I'd love to see the Colts whipped like mules but it ain't gonna happen. Fact is, they went through the entire season undefeated and won every game they wanted to. Once they safely put away the Jets the last time they played them they gave themselves a break. Their finale was against the Bills and not even a diehard Bills fan would have expected a victory if the real Colts were on the field. Meanwhile, the Jets backed their way in to the playoffs and are living the dream. It's about to turn into a nightmare. Rate New York's marvelous defense any way you want, they haven't faced much of Payton Manning and they are about to be introduced to a guy who has something to prove. They managed to beat the self-destructive Chargers which can only be explained by "karma" or something. They can't depend on flubbed field goals here since the Colts will be finding the end zone every chance they get. It comes down to Payton Manning vs Mark Sanchez. Where's your money going? If the Jets are within 7 1/2 points after Indianapolis' second position it'll be a minor miracle. this game is a blowout unless the Colts decide to rest themselves after half-time. The Colts are a BEST BET!

New Orleans 3 1/2 Minnesota: Fair enough. The line dropped half-a-fucking-point since betting opened but that's a meaningless move. Four is a stupid number anyway. Like me, a good portion of the betting public envision a fairy tale season for Brett Farve. The guy is good. And I'd love to see him square off against Manning in the Super Bowl. But football is a team sport and it's not going to be Farve vs Brees throwing a football 30 yards through a tire hanging from a tree limb. The Saints can score and if the Vikings have to play "catch-up" anything can happen except a victory. On the other hand, New Orleans can be slow starters and Minnesota has shown signs of being the "Purple People Eaters" of long ago. This is definitely a coaches game and I'm willing to bet that Brad Childress has maybe enough brains to put the play calling in to Brett's hands and the old "gun slinger" will be anything but conservative. A quick, early score and lead makes the Vikings winners and at the end that half-point may be just enough to cash a winning wager. I'll take the Vikings since anything but a complete collapse will make them losers against the spread.

So here's my official summation: The Colts are a BEST BET. Easily. I'm going with the Vikings but I can't make them a Best Bet. It'll be close or a complete blow-out depending on the intelligence of the respective coaches. Neither team can afford to come-from-behind in this contest. I'll bet Farve is smart enough to realize that.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks, Playoff picks