NFL Picks

Last year's Super Bowl champs were humiliated by a team with a losing record.

Peyton “The Greatest Quarterback That Ever Lived” Manning lost to one of the most over rated teams ever to play the game.

Baltimore scored over 21 points.

And Micheal “I'm the League's MVP” Vick threw an interception in the closing seconds to lose a very winnable game.

It's clear the NFL is either fixed or these wild card poofs were all over rated. Next week will supply the proof either way:

Baltimore will be playing Pittsburgh and that should be a real game. The Steelers can easily win this one but I guess that depends on the line and what their bosses tell them.

The Jets will face New England in a blatant “no contest” match. There's no reason whatsoever to believe the Jets have a chance but I don't know what the powers-that-be want.

Seattle's playing Chicago and if the NFL decides to leave this one alone it's anybody's guess if Cutler will meltdown or not. They should just leave this one alone since nobody can tell what might happen. Hopefully there won't be a fix here.

Green Bay and Atlanta is a true contest and there's no reason to manipulate this one either. After their (the Packers) performance against the Eagles it would be crazy to bet against them.


Clearly the playoffs are being fixed. All the “non-calls” in the Seattle/New Orleans debacle makes that obvious. I suppose the refs can use the extra bucks. It's a major question if the NFL wants the Seahawks to advance or not. A great “Cinderella Story” for sure. In any event, you have to deal with the betting line. I don't know what it is at the moment but the Bears should win this. That being the case, the line will obviously be taking that in to consideration. Clearly, take the Seahawks here. The number doesn't matter.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh will be a real game and it'll be a close call. Anything like 2 ½ for the the Steelers is reasonable and honest. Any other line makes this game unplayable.

Likewise with Green Bay and Atlanta. The Packers are the better team and should win by more then three. I can't see the line being otherwise, though.

Here's the big question: Just how much can New England beat the Jets by? A line bigger then or equal to seven points makes the Jets the bet. Otherwise, the game can't be manipulated and New England will cover whatever the spread is.

Obviously the playoffs are being manipulated. Some teams concede to the fact, others are more resistant. It certainly appears that the NFL would love a Seattle/Patriot match up. They won't need to screw with the game. People will tune in for the “underdog” story and money will be made. The line will be 10 or 12 points and the books won't get hurt. But, clearly, the Seahawks don't have a chance against the Bears. A line bigger then 3 points demonstrates they know that and provides an excellent betting opportunity. This game will be close. Take the Seahawks and the points (assuming a reasonable 3 or more).

For the Packers and Atlanta, it's an even game so whoever gets points, that's the play.

Pass on the Steelers and Ravens unless Baltimore gets more then three.

New England and New York is the only doubt. Anything less then 7 points makes the game suspect. A 10 point line is the most reasonable but I don't know who is paying off who. Less then 10, take the Pats.

Labels: NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs

For some reason New Orleans is only giving 10 points to the Seahawks. Really? Last year's Super Bowl champs are playing the 7-9 Seahawks and should scrape by on a field goal and a touchdown. Really? This game has “blow-out” written all over it. If this line is even close then the NFL is truly “fixed”.

Indianapolis is giving 3 to the Jets and that looks good on paper. But in reality the Colts are a vastly superior team if Manning is on his game. And even if Sanchez plays at his best it wouldn't be good enough and three points just doesn't cut it. From a betting perspective you have to assume Peyton will be at least decent (for him) and Sanchez will be mediocre at best. I really like the Colts.

Sunday's games present exactly the same situation. Baltimore is only giving up 3 points to the Chiefs? Huh? The Ravens aren't exactly a scoring machine but nobody ever accused Kansas City of running up the score. If, as they should, Baltimore wins this, it'll be by more then three.

Philadelphia gives Green Bay 2 ½ points and why not? On paper it looks to be an even game and Micheal “Dog Killer” Vick has been getting a lot of great press lately. A real “feel good” story, especially for cat lovers. But what about Aaron Rodgers? Barring another concussion, Rodgers is actually a better quarterback and even ESPN knows how to contain Vick. With no stupid coaching moves the Packers should be able to win this one. This is a tough call for me and even though I'm not a big Packer's fan and actually like Vick I would have to take the points. But I don't trust most coaches, especially in big games, I'd pass on this one.

Labels: NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs

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Labels: NFL Picks

I missed this one. Apparently the Jets are crushing the Bengals tonight. New York is only giving up 9 to a team that was humiliated by the Buffalo Bills less then a week ago. If Cincinnati scores tonight I, among all the other football prognosticators, will be amazed. And I'm pretty sure the Jets will manage to get a couple of touchdowns. Assuming you weren't stupid enough to take the Lions, I'll help you complete your sweep of the day.

Labels: NFL Picks

New England clobbered Detroit 45-24. Did I really need to predict that one? Now it's Dallas' turn to be crushed by New Orleans. That's right... the Saint's will demolish the inept Cowboys regardless of the line. I really didn't bother with today's picks since they were so obvious.

Labels: NFL Picks

No time to post a thorough post for today's picks. Here's the best bets:



Take Oakland and the seven points.

Green Bay over Minnesota is the best of the day.

Cleveland will beat Jacksonville out right.


Just wanted to get this up here before any kick-offs. More to follow.

Labels: NFL Picks

The Eagles humiliated the Redskins and popular opinion says Micheal Vick is the greatest quarterback that ever lived. I'd love to say I saw that coming but to be real, I just knew the Eagles were a much better team and that Vick is a very capable quarterback. In the right hands, he can be a very dominate force. Unfortunately for him, his coach is Andy Reid. Plainly the man is an idiot. Anyone with a spoonful of brains would have sat Vick down at some point (middle of the fourth quarter, anyone?) to just protect him. In any case, this proves a point I wanted to make. The odds-lines are well out-of-whack. Drubbing a hopeless team doesn't make the Eagles Super Bowl favorites quite yet. Right now they're 3 point favorites over yesterday's hot team, the New York Giants. The same three points they gave to Washington. So what could be wrong with this picture?

As far as "Best Bets" or some such designation goes, this game ain't one. It's actually dead even, with a slight edge going to the Giants. Both coaches are pretty darn lucky despite themselves but, over all, New York has the edge. If I was betting this game I'd have to take the points.

I'll be posting the better options in a couple days.

Labels: NFL Picks

I'm watching the Giants get pummeled by the hapless Cowboys. Right now the “Boys” are winning by 13, 26-13. This should NEVER happen to a play-off “contender”. Fact is, the line has been so out of whack lately that I can no longer resist making picks. Any competent football handicapper should easily be showing a winning percentage. But since I'm the only competent football handicapper out there I figure it's time to give you a break.

I came to this realization when my home town team, the Buffalo Bills were three point favorites over the visiting Detroit Lions. Surprisingly they finally won but weren't able to cover the spread. The line makers are obviously aware of the potential (or lack thereof) of each team, but are stumbling at every turn by awarding points. (The Cowboys just scored and once again have a 20 point lead). The time has come to feast on the inability of the pros to concoct a realistic line. The experts gave 13 ½ points to the Cowboys and things are the EXACT opposite of their predictions. No way in hell the Giants win this one by 13, if they win at all.

So I mock the incompetent line makers as much as I want, but the proof is in the pudding as they say. Monday night the Eagles play the Redskins with the obvious winners (Philadelphia) giving up 3 points.
Reality says it may actually be that close. If Micheal Vick starts, as he should, those three points will mean nothing. Washington will be completely helpless in that situation. On the other hand, if the Eagles prove to be led by complete assholes Vick will be on the bench until things get out of control.

The best information I can find on the Web indicates Vick will be the starter and, in that case, I have to take the Eagles. Washington has nothing to challenge them and taking the eagles (and Vick) with the nonsensical three points is clearly a no-brainier.

If you've been a loser so far since I haven't been posting, take the Eagles here to at least even yourself for the season.

Labels: NFL Picks

Sometimes it's scary how accurate I can be. Okay, sure, the Jets were actually winning at half-time but the finish was exactly what I had predicted and I was a "perfect" 1-0. And, actually I was a perfect 2-0 since the Vikings-Saints game played out exactly the way I anticipated. So, it's not too early to present the winner of the upcoming Super Bowl. I'll by pass the drama: it'll easily be the Colts.

The Saints certainly didn't deserve the win and thanks to the uncharacteristically horrible decision by Brett "Who Really Should Know Better" Favre in the final seconds of regulation play they squeaked out a victory. The fact is, after barely winning despite the very sloppy play of the Vikings (five turn-overs!?) New Orleans barely won (and that reviewed catch in OT clearly wasn't a catch). The only reason to put a dollar on them is because you believe in fate, destiny, karma, or whatever. It's not even remotely possible that the line will be 10 points and I'm doubting it'll even be seven. So, case closed. The Colts will cover whatever meager spread the 'professionals" will create. Keep in mind their only concern is balancing the books and this is the most popular betting event of the year (or maybe that's the Kentucky Derby). The line merely represents the sentiments of the betting public and we all know how stupid they are. This won't be all that close. Now a Colts-Viking Super Bowl would have been a great one.This will probably be over by the time the "Who" take the stage at halftime.

By the way, my numbers slightly favor the Saints. I make them two point favorites but as I stated earlier, the numbers aren't as accurate when the really good teams play each other during the playoffs. It's takes a bit more insight and analysis to deal with the really good teams and the prevailing circumstances. This is for all the marbles and obviously the Colts are vastly superior to the Saints in all aspects of the game. The Colts are the bet.

Labels: NFL Picks, Super Bowl betting

The lines are official and shouldn't be much of a surprise. They are adjusted from reality to reflect the public's point-of-view.

My numbers are calculated based on statistics but they do appear shaky at times since they're based on regular season play and not exclusively on quality opponents. So for the current playoff games I've ranked both games as even. That would more-or-less mandate playing the "dog". Simple enough but I'm not taking that route. If you want to play it conservatively go for it. I see things a little differently.

Indianapolis 7 1/2 New York: I despise the Colts giving away their last two games of the regular season as much as anyone. Those guys are paid millions of dollars to entertain us and then they decide to flaunt their wealth, laugh at the very people paying them, and expect accolades when they do what they're supposed to. I'd love to see the Colts whipped like mules but it ain't gonna happen. Fact is, they went through the entire season undefeated and won every game they wanted to. Once they safely put away the Jets the last time they played them they gave themselves a break. Their finale was against the Bills and not even a diehard Bills fan would have expected a victory if the real Colts were on the field. Meanwhile, the Jets backed their way in to the playoffs and are living the dream. It's about to turn into a nightmare. Rate New York's marvelous defense any way you want, they haven't faced much of Payton Manning and they are about to be introduced to a guy who has something to prove. They managed to beat the self-destructive Chargers which can only be explained by "karma" or something. They can't depend on flubbed field goals here since the Colts will be finding the end zone every chance they get. It comes down to Payton Manning vs Mark Sanchez. Where's your money going? If the Jets are within 7 1/2 points after Indianapolis' second position it'll be a minor miracle. this game is a blowout unless the Colts decide to rest themselves after half-time. The Colts are a BEST BET!

New Orleans 3 1/2 Minnesota: Fair enough. The line dropped half-a-fucking-point since betting opened but that's a meaningless move. Four is a stupid number anyway. Like me, a good portion of the betting public envision a fairy tale season for Brett Farve. The guy is good. And I'd love to see him square off against Manning in the Super Bowl. But football is a team sport and it's not going to be Farve vs Brees throwing a football 30 yards through a tire hanging from a tree limb. The Saints can score and if the Vikings have to play "catch-up" anything can happen except a victory. On the other hand, New Orleans can be slow starters and Minnesota has shown signs of being the "Purple People Eaters" of long ago. This is definitely a coaches game and I'm willing to bet that Brad Childress has maybe enough brains to put the play calling in to Brett's hands and the old "gun slinger" will be anything but conservative. A quick, early score and lead makes the Vikings winners and at the end that half-point may be just enough to cash a winning wager. I'll take the Vikings since anything but a complete collapse will make them losers against the spread.

So here's my official summation: The Colts are a BEST BET. Easily. I'm going with the Vikings but I can't make them a Best Bet. It'll be close or a complete blow-out depending on the intelligence of the respective coaches. Neither team can afford to come-from-behind in this contest. I'll bet Farve is smart enough to realize that.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks, Playoff picks

Officially I'm 1-1 this weekend and unofficially I'm 3-1. The Jets surprised me and the rest of the world by actually winning their game and the Ravens just plain sucked. In my gut I knew that Baltimore was an undependable bunch and Joe Flacco is no quarterback. But I despised the way the "Dolts" ended their season and I didn't question my ratings when it came to analyzing that match-up. I wanted the Colts to go down in embarrassing flames and that tainted my view of that game. There's no doubt that Payton Manning is a great QB and Baltimore's highly over rated defense is a sham. It's really not all that tough to think that since they played only a few games against any kind of offensive opponent. They did impress me by spanking the Patriots and I should have looked further but, at the time, that was good enough for me.

Minnesota demolished the hapless Cowboys and nobody should be very surprised by that since Farve was his usually and expected self. The idiot analysts that expected anything else never took their heads out of their asses long enough to see the obvious. Yeah, sure, Brett Farve might crack under the pressure of that playoff game (since he never ever was in that position before). Can anything be dumber then saying that? Tony (Who?) Romo simply isn't that great of a quarterback. Add the idiot coach Philips to that equation and you have the complete formula for "LOSER"!

The Jets "stunned" the Chargers merely because both teams were over rated. During the entire NFL season nobody cared about San Diego and New York backed in to the playoffs based on the stupidity of Indianapolis. They certainly were good enough to knock off a marginal team like the Chargers.

Saint Louis toyed with the useless defense of Arizona and who was stupid enough not to see that coming? They managed to hold the Packers to only 45 points and won in overtime on a fluke despite the fact that Kurt Warner had an excellent game. (And this is sarcasm for all you ESPN correspondents who are reading this) the Saints certainly don't have the offensive power of the Green Bay Packers. Jesus Christ, how stupid is that thinking? They ran-up another 45 and that has to be some kind of record of points allowed in back-to-back playoff games. What a surprise!

Next week there will be only two games left and that will be the Colts against the Jets, and the Saints versus the Vikings. My initial reaction is that I hope the Colts lose (as they deserve) but they are a better team. I'm also pulling for Minnesota but I do like the Saints.

I'm not checking the "official" line but here's mine:

Indianapolis EVEN New York: That's what my stats say. The Colts will be favored but I can't predict how stupid the spread will be. Maybe rolling over like complete fucking losers was a good idea the last time they played, or maybe they knew they couldn't win anyway. Or maybe they realized how easy it would be to trounce the Jets if they really tried. I'll be going with the latter and I'm taking the Colts to bring the Jets back to reality by mauling them regardless of the line. I'm highly doubting a 10 point spread for this game so right now the Colts are my pick.

New Orleans EVEN Minnesota: That, of course, will not be the line. I imagine the Saints will be giving up points. If I wasn't an idiot and a odds maker, I'd make the Saints a 3 point favorite just to get some money on the Vikings. I'm rooting for Farve and all but the real world is the real world. Drew Brees is Brett Farve ten years ago and Brett is Brett now. Football is a team sport and New Orleans is the better team. Nice try, Brett, but you ain't winning this one.

This post is simply based on the weekend's results and have nothing to do with the line that will be coming out. I haven't seen it yet. Knowing what I do about how the lines are made I have to predict that the Colts will be a seven-point favorite and the Saint's will probably be favored by three. Not a great deal to work with and, statistically speaking, not very solid plays. I'll have more solid plays in a few days or so. Right now the winners are obvious. It's just a matter of by how much.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks

Obviously if the was actually honesty and integrity in the NFL this week's lines would be obvious but, surprise surprise, things aren't as they should be in an honest world. Don't even try and hint that the NFL isn't mightily influenced by the gambling world. This weekend's lines are proof positive. Nobody's throwing any games or shaving points this week. This stuff is for real. So here goes:

CINCINNATI BENGALS 2½ New York Jets: Who didn't see this coming? Didn't the Jets just stomp the Bengals last week? How come they're getting points now? The Jets don't impress me but Cincinnati rolled-over so badly and showed such a total disregard for themselves and the game that there's no chance they can rebound. They'll fold up again since quitting has firmly been implanted in their nature. Sure, they took the money, cashed a few bets themselves, but now they're covered in loser stink. I make the Jets a 6 point favorite and a Best Bet!

DALLAS COWBOYS 4 Philadelphia Eagles: See the above. The Eagles are the Cowboys bitches and were beaten mercilessly last week by them. The line is based in some reality but the Cowboys will once again beat them. My gut says it'll be even more embarrassing then last week, but my numbers say this is a pass.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 3 Baltimore Ravens: I don't care who's hurt, etc. this is a dead even game. Play it at your own risk. The Patriots are Brady and the Ravens are as inconsistent as they come. Pass.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 1 Green Bay Packers: The "Pack" pounded the crap out of the "Cards" last time. No reason at all why Green Bay won't win by at least seven and that makes them a Best Bet.

Two out of four games are Best Bets. I suggest a parlay to maximize your profits. The teams that played it safe and folded will find they overrated themselves and will be reliving last week's nightmare. Don't be fooled.

Labels: football betting, football picks, NFL Picks, Playoff picks