NFL Picks

The useless Packers were an error away from giving me a satisfying 2-0 record for the initial playoff week and they managed to screw me. Because they played down to the level they've demonstrated all year not only is their season over but the losers left me at 1-1. If Rodgers could have completed the most important pass of his career I'd be be a golden 2-0! Instead Green Bay has stamped themselves as the least likely team to ever go anywhere meaningful in the future. Rodgers simply isn't a big time quarterback. Bret would have connected in OT. As much as I doubt the integrity of any NFL team these days I'm chalking this loss up to the incompetence of a soon-to-be proven mediocre QB. What the hell, I was 1-1. No harm, no foul.

New England is/was totally dependent on Brady and that was a proven fact in their loss. I didn't trust him or Baltimore's inability to play at any level of consistency and passing that game was wise. Now there's a new week and things are looking more reliable. Here goes:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 7 Arizona Cardinals: A very fair number. It's overtly obvious that the Cardinals have no defense and the Saints can score like motherfuckers. I make them seven point favorites, too. And that ends up making this game a pass.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 6½ Baltimore Ravens: I hate the whole "1/2" point thing. Sure, Manning can be unbelievable but Baltimore has something more going for them. They just humiliated the Patriot's. My numbers say the Ravens should win by 2 1/2 and if Payton doesn't play error free ball this could be just as ugly. I have to go with the Ravens here. Even if the Colts manage to win this one, it won't be by much. Baltimore is a BEST BET!


MINNESOTA VIKINGS 3 Dallas Cowboys: No matter how you look at this game, it's not a 3 point line. My numbers make it a three point game and I can't accept that. Favre either answers the call and dominates, or Dallas is the truly "miracle" team of the year and squashes them. It'll come down to coaching and play calling and I have very little confidence in Phillips. From a purely statistical level I have to pass on this one.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 7 New York Jets: No one is more surprised then me that the Jets have gotten this far. And by no one I mean there is not a human being on the planet earth who is more surprised then my self that the New York Jets actual made the play-offs. Having said that, my numbers make this an even game. That means I have to support the Jets here. With only four games this weekend I have to take what I can get and the Jets have an edge. The New York Jets are a Best Bet!

Time for the caveat. There's only four games to play this weekend and you can't count on any of them. My usual, highly reliable statistics once again point to a major parlay. Baltimore-New York. Two "dogs" getting too many points. At this stage of the playoffs I have to believe (or what's the use of even trying to bet) that there's no "fix". So go with that.

If you're a major action junkie take this in to consideration: The Cardinals were totally inept when it came to holding back the Packers and should have/could have lost the game. Even if Kurt Warner has another historic day the Cardinals' defense is so porous that Brees will eat them up. He's no Aaron "Loser" Rodgers here. The Saints will slice-and-dice the "Cards" and destroy them. The seven points is actually a joke if both teams play to their overt potential. I'm liking the Saints here by a whole bunch!

The Colts were on a winning streak and could have made history but they folded for any number of disgusting reasons to allow the Jets to make the playoffs. Idiot coaching like that fails to take in to account the fact that every team in the NFL is only a few plays away from beating any other team in the league. maybe Manning can play a flawless game but I wouldn't bet on it.

This game is strictly from my heart. I really want to see Brett Farve make total fools of every single sports analyst that wrote him off at the beginning of the year. Fuck them and their way too late realization that were totally wrong. The Vikings are a machine and, to put in simple terms, the Cowboys are just plain lucky they got this far. Beating the hapless Eagles two weeks in a row means nothing. The meager three point line is proof of that.The Cowboys are the underdogs they deserve to be and that 3 points is just enough to lull the stupid bettors in to making a wager on "America's Team". Personally, I'm taking my winnings from Baltimore and putting it all on the Vikings. Romo has seen his best days and even a better day won't be nearly enough against one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

As I said before, I'm stunned that the Jets even made the playoffs. Maybe they're here in part to the stupidity of the Colts but they are here and have a lot of things in their favor. The Chargers are only in it because of their schedule. It may be close, and a touchdown may be the difference, but the Jets are actually playing inspired football. I have no idea what San Diego is doing. Nobody cared about them during the regular season. I'm trusting my numbers here since I think either team is a fluke to begin with.

So, just to clarify: Baltimore is a BEST BET given the spread. Losing this game would actually be a surprise.

The Jets will be in it all the way and seven points is too many to give them and they are a BEST BET, too.

You can sweep the whole weekend by taking the Saints, the Ravens, the Vikings, and the Jets. My stats will be based on the Ravens and the Jets. My superior insight in to the NFL will be obvious. The only decision you need to make is to play it safe or go for the big money.

Labels: football betting, football picks, Playoff picks