NFL Picks
Saturday, October 10, 2009
MAKE THE BETS
Week five and everything is starting to come together. A lot is starting to make sense so here goes:
Minnesota is giving ten to St.Louis. That makes sense since the Vikings are 4-0 and the Rams are 0-4. Pretty easy choice. After Monday night’s “emotional” victory you may be looking for a “let down” from the Vikings. On the other hand, they’ve been on a roll since the first day and they seem to be getting more inspired. I don’t see a let down, and say Minnesota should be at least my numbers a 20 point favorite. A BEST BET.
Dallas is giving Kansas City seven. America’s team is giving one of the worst teams in the NFL only seven? Not as crazy as it seems, I make it an 8 point game. Pass.
Washington is getting 4 from Carolina. Despite looking pretty bad against Tampa, at least the Redskins have won a couple games. The Panthers can’t say the same. Besides, I make Washington a big favorite (17 points). If nothing else, they keep their games close. I make the Redskins a BEST BET.
Philadelphia is giving Tampa 15 points. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a line like that. It’s the kind of line I’d make for this game. Actually, mine is 17. As tempting as getting two touchdowns might be (and that is the point of having a spread) pass this one.
Likewise, the Giants are giving up 15 to the Oakland “we-may-be-the-worst-team-ever” Raiders. I’m thinking that’s not big enough. I make the Giants 21 point favorites but, since I have absolutely no respect for them when it comes to covering spreads, I’m going to have to call this a game to pass.
Buffalo is giving 6 to Cleveland. You have one team with slightly better then mediocre talent and a totally inept coach versus a team with slightly better then mediocre talent and a totally inept coach. Win or lose, both play totally inconsistently and are hard to predict on any level. I actually agree with this line though I find it out of touch with the most likely outcome. If (and it’s a big “IF”), Buffalo hasn’t decided to call it quits, the six points mean nothing. They should stomp the Browns. On other hand, they are Buffalo. I’m going out on a limb here and I’m taking the Bills. A BEST BET.
Baltimore is giving Cincinnati 8 ½ points. I can’t even begin to guess where a line like that comes from. At best it should be six. It’s a pass.
Pittsburg is giving 10 ½ to Detroit. The Steelers are struggling and Detroit is no longer the worst team in the NFL. I have to agree with this line. Pass.
San Francisco is giving 2 ½ to Atlanta. I make the line 11. The 49ers may be the most underrated team in the NFL. They won’t be making it to the Super Bowl this year, but if things keep going the way they have been, they may win the Super Bowl of betting opportunities. Definitely a BEST BET.
New England is minus 3 ½ to Denver. I actually make the undefeated Bronco’s 12 point favorites. I know its Brady and all that, but, the spread is so out of whack that I have to make Denver a BEST BET.
Arizona and Huston has Huston getting 5 ½ points. Arizona is far from their Super Bowl form and I make this game dead even. I’m tempted to make Huston the pick here, but I have to pass this one. (If they do cover, I’ll be kicking myself).
Indianapolis gives only 3 ½ to Tennessee. A 4-0 team playing a 0-4 team in their own division and the spread is 3 ½? Am I living in some kind of parallel universe? The numbers (and reason) say jump all over this one. This seems to be one of those “somebody-knows-something” kind of lines. This should be an 11 or 12 point game. In any case the 3 ½ is loony enough to be concerned about, but I still make the Colts a Best Bet.
The latest numbers I can find for Seattle and Jacksonville is even, which is as it should be. If you really want to bet this game just flip a coin, otherwise pass.
On Monday night it’s the Jets versus the Dolphins and New York is giving up the standard 1 ½ points to the home team. I make it a six point game in favor of the Jets. Not a best bet but I’m just not impressed with any team that uses the “Wildcat” offense. If Sunday turns out to be a profitable day I’ll press my luck by taking New York.
Six Best Bets isn’t bad at all. And, if it ends up being a 6-0 or even a 4-2 day, you can take a shot on the Jets Monday night.
Minnesota is giving ten to St.Louis. That makes sense since the Vikings are 4-0 and the Rams are 0-4. Pretty easy choice. After Monday night’s “emotional” victory you may be looking for a “let down” from the Vikings. On the other hand, they’ve been on a roll since the first day and they seem to be getting more inspired. I don’t see a let down, and say Minnesota should be at least my numbers a 20 point favorite. A BEST BET.
Dallas is giving Kansas City seven. America’s team is giving one of the worst teams in the NFL only seven? Not as crazy as it seems, I make it an 8 point game. Pass.
Washington is getting 4 from Carolina. Despite looking pretty bad against Tampa, at least the Redskins have won a couple games. The Panthers can’t say the same. Besides, I make Washington a big favorite (17 points). If nothing else, they keep their games close. I make the Redskins a BEST BET.
Philadelphia is giving Tampa 15 points. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a line like that. It’s the kind of line I’d make for this game. Actually, mine is 17. As tempting as getting two touchdowns might be (and that is the point of having a spread) pass this one.
Likewise, the Giants are giving up 15 to the Oakland “we-may-be-the-worst-team-ever” Raiders. I’m thinking that’s not big enough. I make the Giants 21 point favorites but, since I have absolutely no respect for them when it comes to covering spreads, I’m going to have to call this a game to pass.
Buffalo is giving 6 to Cleveland. You have one team with slightly better then mediocre talent and a totally inept coach versus a team with slightly better then mediocre talent and a totally inept coach. Win or lose, both play totally inconsistently and are hard to predict on any level. I actually agree with this line though I find it out of touch with the most likely outcome. If (and it’s a big “IF”), Buffalo hasn’t decided to call it quits, the six points mean nothing. They should stomp the Browns. On other hand, they are Buffalo. I’m going out on a limb here and I’m taking the Bills. A BEST BET.
Baltimore is giving Cincinnati 8 ½ points. I can’t even begin to guess where a line like that comes from. At best it should be six. It’s a pass.
Pittsburg is giving 10 ½ to Detroit. The Steelers are struggling and Detroit is no longer the worst team in the NFL. I have to agree with this line. Pass.
San Francisco is giving 2 ½ to Atlanta. I make the line 11. The 49ers may be the most underrated team in the NFL. They won’t be making it to the Super Bowl this year, but if things keep going the way they have been, they may win the Super Bowl of betting opportunities. Definitely a BEST BET.
New England is minus 3 ½ to Denver. I actually make the undefeated Bronco’s 12 point favorites. I know its Brady and all that, but, the spread is so out of whack that I have to make Denver a BEST BET.
Arizona and Huston has Huston getting 5 ½ points. Arizona is far from their Super Bowl form and I make this game dead even. I’m tempted to make Huston the pick here, but I have to pass this one. (If they do cover, I’ll be kicking myself).
Indianapolis gives only 3 ½ to Tennessee. A 4-0 team playing a 0-4 team in their own division and the spread is 3 ½? Am I living in some kind of parallel universe? The numbers (and reason) say jump all over this one. This seems to be one of those “somebody-knows-something” kind of lines. This should be an 11 or 12 point game. In any case the 3 ½ is loony enough to be concerned about, but I still make the Colts a Best Bet.
The latest numbers I can find for Seattle and Jacksonville is even, which is as it should be. If you really want to bet this game just flip a coin, otherwise pass.
On Monday night it’s the Jets versus the Dolphins and New York is giving up the standard 1 ½ points to the home team. I make it a six point game in favor of the Jets. Not a best bet but I’m just not impressed with any team that uses the “Wildcat” offense. If Sunday turns out to be a profitable day I’ll press my luck by taking New York.
Six Best Bets isn’t bad at all. And, if it ends up being a 6-0 or even a 4-2 day, you can take a shot on the Jets Monday night.
Labels: football betting, football picks
posted by PONUSJOE # 11:03 AM 
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