NFL Picks

Depending on where you look, the line for the Super Bowl is Pittsburgh –6 ½ or –7. Either way it’s not even close. In order to stay within that spread Arizona is going to have to score more then one touchdown, and there’s a real good chance that won’t happen. The Steelers are a serious team this time around and if this were a regular season game the line would at least be 10. The boys from Pittsburgh aren’t some giddy bunch of underdogs that are just happy to be there, but they’re hard seasoned pros with years of tradition behind him and a reputation they want to uphold. It’s the toughest defense in the league and the offense isn’t lame with Big Ben calling the shots. They won’t be sitting on any comfortable lead and will be showing of for all four quarters. Arizona’s bleeding won’t stop until the final two-minute warning and the Gatorade bath.

The Cardinals may be fast and hungry but Kurt Warner and his offensive line are in for a beating from beginning to end. If they’re lucky (or smart) they’ll play defense on the opening kick-off to save themselves some pain. The best they can hope for is to try a running game just to keep the ball out of the Steelers’ hands. The only way the Steelers don’t win by at least 14 is if the Cardinals get the ball with two minutes left and score while Pittsburgh is celebrating…but don’t count on that. The Steelers at minus seven (or 8, or, 9, or 10) is the lock of the year.

Labels: Super Bowl 2009

Ah, the Ravens let me down. The big game was too much for Joe Flacco and I should have seen that coming. Throwing a pic when they were moving to at least cover the spread comes as no real surprise.

At least the Eagles didn't let me down. Despite their second half rally they managed to lose and that makes things easy for picking the "Big Game".

The Steelers are a tough, no nonsense team that wants to win games. The play from beginning to end and do what needs to be done. They do have the best defense in the league and are no slouches on offense. They can do it all.

On the other hand, the Cardinals laid down and bared there throats to Philadelphia and announced to to the NFC champs that they are more then happy just to get to the big one. Blowing a commanding halftime lead is the true mark of a loser. Sure, they won the game, but it was, after all, against the Eagles.

I'm writing this before I even know the line for the game, but I find it hard to believe it'll be 14 points. The Steelers will stomp the Cardinals like rats in a closet and Arizona will just be glad they finally made it to the "Big Show". I'll at least watch it to the half-time show since the "Boss" will be performing. After that, it may be a little pathetic watching the Cardinals struggle.

The line has Philadelphia favored by 3 over Arizona, versus the more realistic line that should make the Eagles –8. By all things objective the Eagles should be the pick here. But this is the play offs and a whole new season. The Eagles impressed a lot of people by beating the defending World Champs but it was the Cardinals that embarrassed their opponent in an impressive fashion.

The game hinges on Donavan McNabb who simply didn’t look all that good in his last victory. Kurt Warner and company have become whole new animals in the last half of the season and much less likely for the big meltdown. On a subjective basis, I rather go with hungry and consistent over erratic anytime. The pick here is the Cardinals.

The real game of the day is in the afternoon and the victor here will be the eventual Champs. The line is Pittsburgh –5 and I make the Ravens –1. A BEST BET during the regular season but, like I said above, this is a new season. During their two regular season meetings Pittsburgh won both games by a combined total of 7 points making the five-point spread a bit of nonsense. It’s strictly a money line and no reflection of the game’s potential. I picked the Ravens to go all the way a few weeks ago and nothing’s going to change my mind now. Admittedly, if they were playing anybody else they’d be a mortal lock. The addition of giving them five points makes this irresistible. Loading up on the Ravens is the thing to do.

The Cardinals are beating the Panthers like a drum as everyone who knows expected as I write this. Earlier, the Baltimore Ravens demonstrated their superiority by defeating the Titans in a game not even the referees could give away. They’ll win the Super Bowel as I predicted weeks ago and the other games don’t really matter.

The Giants and Eagles game has the unholy spread of 4 ½ points. It’s a line that makes no sense for a game that can’t be predicted. When they put 4 ½ on the board in Vegas it’s only because the game is rightfully a “pick ‘em” but they want to keep the money even. Make your choice based solely on which team you think can win this. The points mean nothing. Personally, I think either Donavan or Eli can go severely sideways in this one so I’m abstaining.

The Steelers’ are favored by six, and that sounds reasonable. The fact is they ain’t gonna win by two field goals. It’s a minimum 7-point win or nothing. The “Books” are hoping to keep the money even, but the smart dough is loading up on Pittsburgh. Six point spreads are an inside joke when it comes to the playoffs and Pittsburgh should dominate the inept Chargers. Their luck (the Chargers’) has run out, and they’ll be more then lucky if they stay within striking distance at the half. Not even the calls and non-calls of the officials can keep this game close without somebody ending up in jail or relegated to officiating the NBA where nobody cares. At minus six the Steelers may be the bet of the year.

Get an early bet down on the Ravens if you were too stupid to take my advice the first time since you should be getting decent odds on an even money proposition. Sunday’s two games are all or nothing propositions. The favorites either dominate or embarrass themselves. This time of year is easy. The refs can’t manipulate the outcomes enough to cover spreads or effect outcomes unless their kids are being held hostage. Sunday will showcase two real events and the odds are so wrong that anybody with balls and a bankroll may be able to retire early.