NFL Picks

By "real picks" I mean some really strong plays, solid betting opportunities. Here they are:

Kansas City is giving one point to Miami. It's a joke! It's gotta be. The Dolphins beat the big bad Bears so that have to be good., right? The books can't give them too many points, but one? Take Kansas City minus the point for an easy cover.

Atlanta and Cleveland. I said I'd take whoever gets the points (as long it was more then three) and that's Cleveland. Seven and a half is better then three so I'm going with Cleveland +7 1/2.

Buffalo is only getting 11 1/2 from Indianapolis. I anticipated more like 14. Some good teams may take the Bills lightly, not the Colts. These guys are serious and Buffalo has no offense. Indianapolis will crush them. Give the 11 1/2. Hell, give twice that. Colts will bury the Bills.

Pittsburgh's giving New Orleans 4 1/2. Sounds about right for betting purposes. There's something wrong with the Steelers. I doubt it's going to get fixed this week. The Saints will probably win outright so take them and the points.

Philadelphia is giving seven to Washington. I'm not the only one who figured this game out. As much as I dislike the Eagles seven points is one of those lines just begging for action on the Redskins. Take Philly and give the points.

New England will probably beat the Jets, but giving up 10 1/2 is crazy. It'll be close. Take the Jets and the points.

San Francisco is getting 6 points from Detroit. Huh? Less then a touchdown gets money on the Lions but Frisco seems to be getting better. Take the points.

Oakland is officially the worst team in the league. I watched the Monday night game and they are hopeless. Unless this is Jake's week to implode and throws six interceptions the Broncos will bury this inept team.

I'm almost a believer in Dallas quarterback Tony Romanowski (or whatever his name is). Who can really tell? The line says nobody's sure. Seven points for Arizona is one of those safe lines. Take Dallas and give the seven. At worst, you may get a "push".

There's no line on Seattle and St. Louis yet. If the Seahawks don't get their starters back they're going to lose. Guess I'll have to wait on this one, too.

Monday has Carolina giving up 9 1/2 to Tampa. Carolina still has hopes, Tampa's season ended a week ago. Nine and a half points is a strange line. Like they're trying to get money on Tampa. Take Carolina and give the points.

You may have noticed a pattern here. Hot on the early games, ice-cold on the later games. I haven't changed my methodology, but you may want to consider reversing the plays if I'm on early. Just might work. There's ten plays here. They're not all equally good so I highlighted the best picks in read (total of five).
By the way, I was 4-2 going into Sunday evening. I really didn't like the Patriots' game. I was wrong there. Likewise for Monday, ending my weekend at 4-4. A conservative approach would have left me at 4-2, 4-3 at the worst. You're call.