NFL Picks

Miami is giving Detroit 3; I figured it to be four. I'm picking the Dolphins, but I don’t consider this bettable. RIGHT!

Tampa is getting 11 from Dallas. Tampa looked weak against Washington and Dallas toppled the unbeaten Colts. I don’t think Washington is all that bad and the Dallas game was a matter of coaching. Tampa has pride and 11 points is a little too much. I like the Bucs. WRONG! Damn!!! I thought this would be a lot closer! Started out that way, but, Romo is looking pretty damn good.

Denver is only giving Kansas City a point. Up until Sunday night, I was leaning toward Denver winning the AFC. Kansas City barely got by Oakland. The line should be a lot bigger so I'd be tempted to take KC but I have to consider this based on who beat whom. I'm going with Denver minus the one. WRONG! And wrong big time. Denver is done.

Jacksonville is giving Buffalo 2 ½. Huston beat Jacksonville, Buffalo beat Huston. Must be the reason. Jacksonville is making a big run at the playoffs; Buffalo has a meager chance for a wild card. I hate picking Buffalo's games, but the Jags should cover this one.WRONG! Buffalo won outright! What’s going on?

Speaking of Huston, their getting 6 from the Jets. New York played the Bears tough. The line looks wrong. Another one of those games that tempt me to take the "“dog". Another game where I resist temptation. Take the Jets, give the six. RIGHT! Jets are a little better then everybody seems to think.

Pittsburgh gets three from Baltimore. I’m still not sure about the Steelers. They may be getting it together and make a run. Take the Steelers and the points. WRONG! Steelers are done.

Cincinnati is giving three to Cleveland. The Bengals have been scoring. The Browns have been doing pretty good. If the line were 7 or more, I would have taken Cleveland. Since it's not, I have to go with the Bengals. RIGHT! They even covered my proposed 7!

First off, Minnesota is giving 6 1/2 to Arizona. Even better. I like Arizona better anyway. Take them and the points. I'm keeping this game a Best Bet. RIGHT! Arizona just covered.

San Francisco is getting 5 1/2 from St. Louis. Makes much more sense, though I still consider this game even. I may regret this, but I'm sticking with St. Louis since I think the 49 ers are overrated since beating the Seahawks. WRONG! After screwing up the line I should have reconsidered the “bettablity” of this game. I didn’t.

New Orleans and Atlanta. I expect the real Michael Vick to show up this week so the three points are nothing. Saints cover. RIGHT! Vick is back!

Carolina is giving Washington four. I'm giving the Panthers an edge and 4 points is reasonable. Carolina can cover. WRONG! The 4 points went the wrong way!

Chicago is getting three from New England. Tough choice. I give New England an edge based on class and Grossman hasn’t been looking good. If the Pats win, they cover. RIGHT! The Pats won and they covered!

Philadelphia is getting nine from the Colts. McNabb is out and I'd give the Eagles nine if he were playing. The books are afraid of giving too many points. Take the Colts. RIGHT! The Colts may be coming back.

The Giants are giving the Titans three. I have to go with the Giants here. It's all up to Manning. WRONG (and right). It was up to Manning and he choked.

Oakland is getting 13 from the Chargers. I want to think this line is too big. But if it were 14 the money wouldn't be spread evenly. Take San Diego and give the points. WRONG! This was matter of underrating the Raiders now that they have Brooks. Too bad it’s too late.
That’s 4-3 on the bettable games, 2-1 on the Best Bets. Over the last three weeks I’m 14-8-1, and 3-1 on Best Bets. Ta-Da!!!

Since I’m a little late at posting this, I’m putting up my pick for Thursday now. The rest of the picks will be up in a day or two:

Cincinnati and Baltimore. I make it Cincinnati +3 1/2. Line says three. I’ll take the Bengals, but this isn’t bettable.

Upon further review I found a couple of line mistakes which requires me changing a few picks.

First off, Minnesota is giving 6 1/2 to Arizona. Even better. I like Arizona better anyway. Take them and the points. I'm keeping this game a Best Bet.

San Francisco is getting 5 1/2 from St. Louis. Makes much more sense, though I still consider this game even. I may regret this , but I'm sticking with St. Louis since I think the 49 ers are overrated since beating the Seahawks.

The Saints are getting points (three of them) from Atlanta. Even better. Sticking with New Orleans.

On Monday Night, Seattle is giving Green Bay 9 1/2. Green Bay can actually win this. I'll take the Pack, but I'm not making this a bettable game.

Tampa Bay got crushed by the Cowboys last night. This guy, Romo, looks like the real thing. I'll probably ride this team all the way to the Super Bowl. On the other hand, Tampa may just be bettable next week.

I can't explain how I managed to screw up these lines, but, fortunately the thinking stayed the same. No harm, no foul (unless you already bet Minnesota...Sorry). It's just gonna be a bitch doing a recap. My problem. Good luck.

I ended up having a good weekend with my bettable games going 4-1-1. I expect similar results this week. Over the last two weeks I'm now 10-5-1. The trend continues. Bettable games in red (as usual) and if I decide on a Best Bet or two, I'll mention them at the end. Last week my Best Bet was San Francisco. Over all I was 8-6-1 on the picking. Here we go:


Miami is giving Detroit 3; I figured it to be four. I'm picking the Dolphins, but I don’t consider this bettable.

Tampa is getting 11 from Dallas. Tampa looked weak against Washington and Dallas toppled the unbeaten Colts. I don'’t think Washington is all that bad and the Dallas game was a matter of coaching. Tampa has pride and 11 points is a little too much. I like the Bucs.

Denver is only giving Kansas City a point. Up until Sunday night, I was leaning toward Denver winning the AFC. Kansas City barely got by Oakland. The line should be a lot bigger so I'd be tempted to take KC but I have to consider this based on who beat whom. I'm going with Denver minus the one.

Jacksonville is giving Buffalo 2 ½. Huston beat Jacksonville, Buffalo beat Huston. Must be the reason. Jacksonville is making a big run at the playoffs; Buffalo has a meager chance for a wild card. I hate picking Buffalo's games, but the Jags should cover this one.

Speaking of Huston, their getting 6 from the Jets. New York played the Bears tough. The line looks wrong. Another one of those games that tempt me to take the "“dog". Another game where I resist temptation. Take the Jets, give the six.

Pittsburgh gets three from Baltimore. I'’m still not sure about the Steelers. They may be getting it together and make a run. Take the Steelers and the points.

Cincinnati is giving three to Cleveland. The Bengals have been scoring. The Browns have been doing pretty good. If the line were 7 or more, I would have taken Cleveland. Since it's not, I have to go with the Bengals.

Arizona is giving six to Minnesota. This should be an even game. Take the Vikings and the points.

San Francisco is giving points to St. Louis? Six of them? This looks like Arizona and Minnesota to me! Take the Rams and the points.

New Orleans and Atlanta. I expect the real Michael Vick to show up this week so the three points are nothing. Saints cover.

Carolina is giving Washington four. I'm giving the Panthers an edge and 4 points is reasonable. Carolina can cover.

Chicago is getting three from New England. Tough choice. I give New England an edge based on class and Grossman hasn’t been looking good. If the Pats win, they cover.

Philadelphia is getting nine from the Colts. McNabb is out and I'd give the Eagles nine if he were playing. The books are afraid of giving too many points. Take the Colts.

The Giants are giving the Titans three. I have to go with the Giants here. It'’s all up to Manning.

Oakland is getting 13 from the Chargers. I want to think this line is too big. But if it were 14 the money wouldn't be spread evenly. Take San Diego and give the points.

That's seven bettable games. I like three a lot (Best Bets). The best are the Vikings and Rams, both getting six, and the Colts giving up nine. I'm a little shaky on Indianapolis but they are very capable of winning big. I just hope they think so.

Happy Thanksgiving!!!

I’m anxious to recap while the day is fresh in my mind. I’ve already gotten next week figured. Suffice it to say I have a winning record these last two weeks (and overall).
Here’s a summary:

Kansas City -91/2 Oakland: Oakland stinks, period. Their defense is decent. They played Denver tough. KC lost to Miami. This line makes no sense. It should be a lot less. The bookies know what they're doing so give the points. Take KC -91/2.
WRONG! I didn’t realize Aaron Brooks was back. I may have looked at this one differently (0-1).

Indianapolis and Dallas is a pick. The Colts squeaked by the Bills and Dallas handled Arizona. Tony Romo seems to be a good enough quarterback. This won't be a battle of the quarterbacks, it's who can out coach whom. Tony Dungy proved Sunday he's no hall-of-famer. Parcells is. Take the Cowboys. RIGHT! Parcells, er the Cowboys won (1-1).

New Orleans giving three to Cincinnati. I wouldn't bet any team that couldn't hold a 21 point lead (twice). The Saints win bigger then three, but giving up too many points won't keep the action even. Take the Saints. WRONG! Throw three interceptions, lose the game (1-2).


Pittsburgh is giving three to Cleveland. Even though I'm not sure what to make of this game, I still think the Steelers are having problems, but Cleveland hasn't been looking too bad lately. If Pittsburgh is good enough to win, they're good enough to cover the three. RIGHT! The Steelers barely made it, but they did (2-2).

Philadelphia is giving Tennessee 13 points. This line makes no sense to me. Philly may have pounded Washington but that doesn't mean much. Tennessee played Baltimore close. I'll take the points. RIGHT! Nothing else to say (1-0).

Baltimore is giving Atlanta 4. Two weeks ago Michael Vick was the greatest quarterback in the NFL. What kind of line is 4 points? Take Atlanta and the points. WRONG! I expected the “good” Michael Vick to show up. Instead, the real one did (2-3).

Carolina is giving 6 1/2 to St.Louis. Utterly ridiculous. St.Louis should be favored. Carolina sucks. Take the points. WRONG! Carolina still sucks, St. Louis is just worst! Makes me 1-1.

Huston is giving Buffalo 2 1/2 up from 1 1/2 when they first posted the line. I have problem with this game. I think Buffalo could win, but I hardly ever pick them right. I watch all their games and they are a major disappointment. These two teams should be even, but, with the line going up, it looks like the "books" are begging for Buffalo money. Take Huston give all the points you have to. WRONG! Last second touchdown gave the Bills the win. (2-4)

New England and Green Bay. New England's giving the Pack six. Give it. The Pats are far from done. RIGHT! The Pats buried them. (3-4)

Tampa's only giving Washington 3. The Redskins don't have Portis and are going with a back-up quarterback. Tampa's got a coach that wants a few more wins. Washington seems to think their season's done and are "re-building". Tampa covers the three. RIGHT! Sort of…it was a “Push” (1-1-1).

Chicago's giving the Jets seven. TAKE IT!!! The Jets aren't that good! RIGHT! This one was closer then I thought. But a win is a win. (4-4).

Miami and Minnesota. The Dolphins are giving up 3 1/2 here. I think they're finding themselves. I think they cover. RIGHT! I thought right (2-1-1).

Arizona is giving 2 1/2 to Detroit. This is just like Buffalo and Huston. It makes no real sense to me. I'd figure it the other way around. Take Detroit and get the points. WRONG! Puts me at 4-5.

Seattle is giving 6 1/2 to San Francisco. Should be bigger. A lot bigger. Take San Fran. RIGHT! The 49ers won outright (3-1-1).

I’m 3-1-1 on my playable games with my best bet winning. That makes me 9-5-1 over the last two weeks on the bettable games.

Denver and San Diego haven’t played yet so I’m 4-5 on the other games, 7-6-1 overall. My other playable game is the Jags on Monday night.

I’ll post either Monday night or early Tuesday for Week 12 since there’s three games on Thursday. Here’s a preview. Miami is playing Detroit. Detroit is Minnesota in a different uniform. The line should be Miami -4.

I'm 6-4 overall . Screw this separating best bets from good bets. One best bet a week (occasionally two). This coming weekend looks easy:

Kansas City -91/2 Oakland: Oakland stinks, period. Their defense is decent. They played Denver tough. KC lost to Miami. This line makes no sense. It should be a lot less. The bookies know what they're doing so give the points. Take KC -91/2.

Indianapolis and Dallas is a pick. The Colts squeaked by the Bills and Dallas handled Arizona. Tony Romo seems to be a good enough quarterback. This won't be a battle of the quarterbacks, it's who can out coach who. Tony Dungy proved Sunday he's no hall-of-famer. Parcells is. Take
the Cowboys.

New Orleans giving three to Cincinnati. I wouldn't bet any team that couldn't hold a 21 point lead (twice). The Saints win bigger then three, but giving up too many points won't keep the action even. Take the Saints.

Pittsburgh is giving three to Cleveland. Even though I'm not sure what to make of this game, I still think the Steelers are having problems, but Cleveland hasn't been looking too bad lately. If Pittsburgh is good enough to win, they're good enough to cover the three.

Philadelphia is giving Tennessee 13 points. This line makes no sense to me. Philly may have pounded Washington but that doesn't mean much. Tennessee played Baltimore close. I'll take the points.

Baltimore is giving Atlanta 4. Two weeks ago Michael Vick was the greatest quarterback in the NFL. What kind of line is 4 points? Take Atlanta and the points.

Carolina is giving 6 1/2 to St.Louis. Utterly ridiculous. St.Louis should be favored. Carolina sucks. Take the points.

Huston is giving Buffalo 2 1/2 up from 1 1/2 when they first posted the line. I have problem with this game. I think Buffalo could win, but I hardly ever pick them right. I watch all their games and they are a major disappointment. These two teams should be even, but, with the line going up, it looks like the "books" are begging for Buffalo money. Take Huston give all the points you have to.

New England and Green Bay. New England's giving the Pack six. Give it. The Pat's are far from done.

Tampa's only giving Washington 3. The Redskins don't have Portis and are going with a back-up quarterback. Tampa's got a coach that wants a few more wins. Washington seems to think their season's done and are "re-building". Tampa covers the three.

Chicago's giving the Jets seven. TAKE IT!!! The Jets aren't that good!

Miami and Minnesota. The Dolphins are giving up 3 1/2 here. I think they're finding themselves. I think they cover.

Arizona is giving 2 1/2 to Detroit. This is just like Buffalo and Huston. It makes no real sense to me. I'd figure it the other way around. Take Detroit and get the points.

Seattle is giving 6 1/2 to San Francisco. Should be bigger. A lot bigger. Take San Fran.

Denver and San Diego. I believe in Jake Plummer! He should have crashed and burned last week but came through it like a man. Give the lousy 2 1/2! They don't scare Jake!

Monday night has Jacksonville playing the Giants. And the Giants are getting points! Jacksonville just lost to Huston! The Giants played a strong half game against Chicago. The Jaguars ain't no Bears! The line is telling me they want action on the Giants. What to do? Give the 3 1/2.


There, I went through every game. Which ones are the best? I highlighted the games to play (and the ones that count) in red. Best bet? San Francisco getting 6 1/2 from Seattle.
That's six picks, one a best bet. No worse then 4-2. I may even sweep the board this week.

By "real picks" I mean some really strong plays, solid betting opportunities. Here they are:

Kansas City is giving one point to Miami. It's a joke! It's gotta be. The Dolphins beat the big bad Bears so that have to be good., right? The books can't give them too many points, but one? Take Kansas City minus the point for an easy cover.

Atlanta and Cleveland. I said I'd take whoever gets the points (as long it was more then three) and that's Cleveland. Seven and a half is better then three so I'm going with Cleveland +7 1/2.

Buffalo is only getting 11 1/2 from Indianapolis. I anticipated more like 14. Some good teams may take the Bills lightly, not the Colts. These guys are serious and Buffalo has no offense. Indianapolis will crush them. Give the 11 1/2. Hell, give twice that. Colts will bury the Bills.

Pittsburgh's giving New Orleans 4 1/2. Sounds about right for betting purposes. There's something wrong with the Steelers. I doubt it's going to get fixed this week. The Saints will probably win outright so take them and the points.

Philadelphia is giving seven to Washington. I'm not the only one who figured this game out. As much as I dislike the Eagles seven points is one of those lines just begging for action on the Redskins. Take Philly and give the points.

New England will probably beat the Jets, but giving up 10 1/2 is crazy. It'll be close. Take the Jets and the points.

San Francisco is getting 6 points from Detroit. Huh? Less then a touchdown gets money on the Lions but Frisco seems to be getting better. Take the points.

Oakland is officially the worst team in the league. I watched the Monday night game and they are hopeless. Unless this is Jake's week to implode and throws six interceptions the Broncos will bury this inept team.

I'm almost a believer in Dallas quarterback Tony Romanowski (or whatever his name is). Who can really tell? The line says nobody's sure. Seven points for Arizona is one of those safe lines. Take Dallas and give the seven. At worst, you may get a "push".

There's no line on Seattle and St. Louis yet. If the Seahawks don't get their starters back they're going to lose. Guess I'll have to wait on this one, too.

Monday has Carolina giving up 9 1/2 to Tampa. Carolina still has hopes, Tampa's season ended a week ago. Nine and a half points is a strange line. Like they're trying to get money on Tampa. Take Carolina and give the points.

You may have noticed a pattern here. Hot on the early games, ice-cold on the later games. I haven't changed my methodology, but you may want to consider reversing the plays if I'm on early. Just might work. There's ten plays here. They're not all equally good so I highlighted the best picks in read (total of five).
By the way, I was 4-2 going into Sunday evening. I really didn't like the Patriots' game. I was wrong there. Likewise for Monday, ending my weekend at 4-4. A conservative approach would have left me at 4-2, 4-3 at the worst. You're call.

Not bad for this new strategy I’m using. Might as well stay with it. To sum things up:

Miami actually beat the Bears! I didn’t expect that, but it gives me a play for next week. Miami’s playing Kansas City and that means I’m going with KC.

Atlanta lost to Detroit. I saw the possibility, but didn’t think it would be that big. Result of this game is uncertain. Atlanta will be playing Cleveland (a team I may be underrating, see below) and Detroit is playing San Francisco. I gotta wait for the line on this one, but leaning toward Frisco.

Washington beat Dallas on a fluke. I may have to reevaluate how I feel about Tony Rome (or whatever his name is). One thing’s for sure, Washington is playing Philadelphia, and I’m picking Philly. Dallas is playing Arizona and I’m leaning in Dallas’ direction. Another one where I have to see the line.

New Orleans handled Tampa and next they play Pittsburgh. I liked the Steelers and they lost. Big Ben is back, but there’s something wrong with this team. I have to back the Saints against them.

Speaking of Pittsburgh, they let me down, big time. They looked lousy losing to Denver. Jake didn’t crash-and-burn as I figured he would by now. They play Oakland next week and I’ll go with the Broncos. Oakland doesn’t play until tomorrow and I’m hoping they win so the line will be lower. Doesn’t matter though, I’m taking Denver.

San Diego didn’t cover against Cleveland, but I was a little shaky on that pick. Cleveland was coming off a victory over the Jets and I think the Jets are a pretty decent team, but I was swayed by the Chargers potent offense. Cleveland’s playing Atlanta next and I ‘d have a hard time guessing the line now. Personally, I’d make the game even so I’ll probably end up with the “dog” and taking the points if the line is more then three.
San Diego is playing Cincinnati and that’s a pass for me.

Speaking of the Jets, they’re coming off a bye week to play New England. They have to be getting points. Right now, the Patriots are in a “shoot-out” with the Colts. Win or lose, I’m backing New York next week.

Regardless of how Indianapolis does tonight, they’re playing the Bills next week. The line won’t be big enough to keep me from picking the Colts.

That makes me 4-2 so far with the New England game undecided and of course the Monday night game yet to be played. I’ll sort things out and make the plays a little more definitive once the Monday night game is over and the lines are set.